64 resultados para design-based inference


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Cpfg is a program for simulating and visualizing plant development, based on the theory of L-systems. A special-purpose programming language, used to specify plant models, is an essential feature of cpfg. We review postulates of L-system theory that have influenced the design of this language. We then present the main constructs of this language, and evaluate it from a user's perspective.

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In this paper we propose a new framework for evaluating designs based on work domain analysis, the first phase of cognitive work analysis. We develop a rationale for a new approach to evaluation by describing the unique characteristics of complex systems and by showing that systems engineering techniques only partially accommodate these characteristics. We then present work domain analysis as a complementary framework for evaluation. We explain this technique by example by showing how the Australian Defence Force used work domain analysis to evaluate design proposals for a new system called Airborne Early Warning and Control. This case study also demonstrates that work domain analysis is a useful and feasible approach that complements standard techniques for evaluation and that promotes a central role for human factors professionals early in the system design and development process. Actual or potential applications of this research include the evaluation of designs for complex systems.

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In this paper, genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to the optimum design of reinforced concrete liquid retaining structures, which comprise three discrete design variables, including slab thickness, reinforcement diameter and reinforcement spacing. GA, being a search technique based on the mechanics of natural genetics, couples a Darwinian survival-of-the-fittest principle with a random yet structured information exchange amongst a population of artificial chromosomes. As a first step, a penalty-based strategy is entailed to transform the constrained design problem into an unconstrained problem, which is appropriate for GA application. A numerical example is then used to demonstrate strength and capability of the GA in this domain problem. It is shown that, only after the exploration of a minute portion of the search space, near-optimal solutions are obtained at an extremely converging speed. The method can be extended to application of even more complex optimization problems in other domains.

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Study objective: To investigate the effect of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia on serum folate and total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men and women aged 27 to 77 years (n = 468), who were originally randomly selected from the Perth electoral roll. The cohort was surveyed in 1995/96 before widespread introduction of folate fortification of a variety of foods, and followed up on two occasions, firstly in 1998/99 and again in 2001, when a moderate number of folate fortified foods were available. Subjects with abnormal serum creatinine concentrations at baseline were excluded from this analysis. Main results: Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to determine changes in serum folate and tHcy over the three surveys and to assess whether time trends were related to age, sex, MTHFR C677T genotype, or consumption of folate fortified foods. An increase (38%) in mean serum folate (p < 0.0005) and a decrease (21%) in mean tHcy (p < 0.0005) were seen after introduction of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia. Serum folate was consistently higher (p = 0.032) and tHcy was consistently lower (p = 0.001) in subjects who consumed at least one folate fortified food compared with subjects who did not consume any folate fortified foods in the previous week. The time related changes in serum folate and tHcy were affected only by intake of folate fortified foods (p < 0.0005) and not by any other measured variables including age, sex, or MTHFR genotype. Conclusion: Voluntary fortification of foods with folate in Australia has been followed by a substantial increase in serum folate and decrease in tHcy in the general population.

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Objective: To test the feasibility of an evidence-based clinical literature search service to help answer general practitioners' (GPs') clinical questions. Design: Two search services supplied GPs who submitted questions with the best available empirical evidence to answer these questions. The GPs provided feedback on the value of the service, and concordance of answers from the two search services was assessed. Setting: Two literature search services (Queensland and Victoria), operating for nine months from February 1999. Main outcome measures: Use of the service; time taken to locate answers; availability of evidence; value of the service to GPs; and consistency of answers from the two services. Results: 58 GPs asked 160 questions (29 asked one, 11 asked five or more). The questions concerned treatment (65%), aetiology (17%), prognosis (13%), and diagnosis (5%). Answering a question took a mean of 3 hours 32 minutes of personnel time (95% Cl, 2.67-3.97); nine questions took longer than 10 hours each to answer, the longest taking 23 hours 30 minutes. Evidence of suitable quality to provide a sound answer was available for 126 (79%) questions. Feedback data for 84 (53%) questions, provided by 42 GPs, showed that they appreciated the service, and asking the questions changed clinical care. There were many minor differences between the answers from the two centres, and substantial differences in the evidence found for 4/14 questions. However, conclusions reached were largely similar, with no or only minor differences for all questions. Conclusions: It is feasible to provide a literature search service, but further assessment is needed to establish its cost effectiveness.

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OBJECTIVE: To establish body mass index (BMI) norms for standard figural stimuli using a large Caucasian population-based sample. In addition, we sought to determine the effectiveness of the figural stimuli to identify individuals as obese or thin. DESIGN: All Caucasian twins born in Virginia between 1915 and 1971 were identified by public birth record. In addition, 3347 individual twins responded to a letter published in the newsletter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). All adult twins (aged 18 and over) from both of these sources and their family members were mailed a 16 page 'Health and Lifestyle' questionnaire. SUBJECTS: BMI and silhouette data were available on 16 728 females and 11 366 males ranging in age from 18- 100. MEASUREMENTS: Self-report information on height-weight, current body size, desired body size and a discrepancy score using standard figural stimuli. RESULTS: Gender- and age-specific norms are presented linking BMI to each of the figural stimuli. Additional norms for desired body size and discrepancy scores are also presented. Receiver operating curves (ROC) indicate that the figural stimuli are effective in classifying individuals as obese or thin. CONCLUSIONS: With the establishment of these norms, the silhouettes used in standard body image assessment can now be linked to BMI. Differences were observed between women and men in terms of desired body size and discrepancy scores, with women preferring smaller sizes. The figural stimuli are a robust technique for classifying individuals as obese or thin.

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A combination of modelling and analysis techniques was used to design a six component force balance. The balance was designed specifically for the measurement of impulsive aerodynamic forces and moments characteristic of hypervelocity shock tunnel testing using the stress wave force measurement technique. Aerodynamic modelling was used to estimate the magnitude and distribution of forces and finite element modelling to determine the mechanical response of proposed balance designs. Simulation of balance performance was based on aerodynamic loads and mechanical responses using convolution techniques. Deconvolution was then used to assess balance performance and to guide further design modifications leading to the final balance design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Bond's method for ball mill scale-up only gives the mill power draw for a given duty. This method is incompatible with computer modelling and simulation techniques. It might not be applicable for the design of fine grinding ball mills and ball mills preceded by autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills. Model-based ball mill scale-up methods have not been validated using a wide range of full-scale circuit data. Their accuracy is therefore questionable. Some of these methods also need expensive pilot testing. A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which does not have these limitations. This procedure uses data from two laboratory tests to determine the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of full-scale mill circuits. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw.

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A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Incremental parsing has long been recognized as a technique of great utility in the construction of language-based editors, and correspondingly, the area currently enjoys a mature theory. Unfortunately, many practical considerations have been largely overlooked in previously published algorithms. Many user requirements for an editing system necessarily impact on the design of its incremental parser, but most approaches focus only on one: response time. This paper details an incremental parser based on LR parsing techniques and designed for use in a modeless syntax recognition editor. The nature of this editor places significant demands on the structure and quality of the document representation it uses, and hence, on the parser. The strategy presented here is novel in that both the parser and the representation it constructs are tolerant of the inevitable and frequent syntax errors that arise during editing. This is achieved by a method that differs from conventional error repair techniques, and that is more appropriate for use in an interactive context. Furthermore, the parser aims to minimize disturbance to this representation, not only to ensure other system components can operate incrementally, but also to avoid unfortunate consequences for certain user-oriented services. The algorithm is augmented with a limited form of predictive tree-building, and a technique is presented for the determination of valid symbols for menu-based insertion. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Methyl tetra-O-allyl, and tetra-O-[2-(tetrahydro-2H-pyranyl)oxy.-3-oxapentyl glucosides, and tetra-O-(cyanoethyl)galactosyl azide were converted into derivatives containing linkers with terminal carboxylic acid functionalities at the anomeric position and bearing four arms with phthaloyl- or BOC-protected terminal amino groups. These molecules were suitable for use in solid-phase peptide synthesis and for the preparation of dendrimers, containing multiple copies of peptides. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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HLA-A*0201 transgenic, H-2D(b)/mouse beta2-microglobulin double-knockout mice were used to compare and optimize the immunogenic potential of 17HIV 1-derived, HLA-A0201-restricted epitopic peptides. A tyrosine substitution in position 1 of the epitopic peptides, which increases both their affinity for and their HLA-A0201 molecule stabilizing capacity, was introduced in a significant proportion, having verified that such modifications enhance their immunogenicity in respect of their natural antigenicity. Based on these results, a 13-polyepitope construct was inserted in the pre-S2 segment of the hepatitis B middle glycoprotein and used for DNA immunization. Long-lasting CTL responses against most of the inserted epitopes could be elicited simultaneously in a single animal with cross-recognition in several cases of their most common natural variants.

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Design of liquid retaining structures involves many decisions to be made by the designer based on rules of thumb, heuristics, judgment, code of practice and previous experience. Various design parameters to be chosen include configuration, material, loading, etc. A novice engineer may face many difficulties in the design process. Recent developments in artificial intelligence and emerging field of knowledge-based system (KBS) have made widespread applications in different fields. However, no attempt has been made to apply this intelligent system to the design of liquid retaining structures. The objective of this study is, thus, to develop a KBS that has the ability to assist engineers in the preliminary design of liquid retaining structures. Moreover, it can provide expert advice to the user in selection of design criteria, design parameters and optimum configuration based on minimum cost. The development of a prototype KBS for the design of liquid retaining structures (LIQUID), using blackboard architecture with hybrid knowledge representation techniques including production rule system and object-oriented approach, is presented in this paper. An expert system shell, Visual Rule Studio, is employed to facilitate the development of this prototype system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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zFour rumen-fistulated, multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows in early lactation were offered mixed diets based on rhodes grass hay (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide containing 13, 14, 15 or 16% crude protein (CP) on a dry matter basis, in a 4 x 4 latin square design. The estimated undegradable protein concentration in these diets was similar with rumen degradable protein concentration varying. Cows fed a diet containing 13% CP had lower (P = 0.07) milk yields than cows in other treatments (20.4 vs 21.9, 22.0 and 22.2 L/d for 13, 14, 15 and 16% CP, respectively). A positive linear relationship was found (P = 0.06) between organic matter intake and dietary CP%. There were negative linear relationships between dietary CP% and digestibilities of dry matter (P = 0.09), organic matter (P = 0.06) and neutral detergent fibre (P = 0.02). Feeding a diet containing 13% CP resulted in significantly lower (P = 0.001) molar proportions (%) of rumen valerate in comparison with other treatments. The molar proportions of isovalerate differed (P = 0.001) between treatments (0.66, 0.78, 0.89 and 1.04%) for 13, 14, 15 and 16% CP, respectively). Dietary protein level had no effect on rates of passage, in situ digestion of rhodes grass hay or ratios of allantoin: creatinine in urine. These data showed that increasing the dietary CP concentration of lactating cows fed diets based on rhodes grass hay increased intakes and not significantly improved at dietary CP concentrations above 14% DM.

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We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.