Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator for 30 countries from 1970-2000. After some plausibility checks, we refer to these series to test a number of hypotheses. Cross correlations reveal a high degree of interconnectedness. Moreover, the number of highly positive correlations has increased over time, whereas the number of low and moderate correlations has decreased. A principal components analysis yields a first component that can be interpreted as the world business cycle. The further components suggest the existence of a Scandinavian-Anglo-Saxon business cycle as well as of another, smaller group of Anglo-Saxon countries that move together. This finding is replicated by a hierarchical cluster analysis, which in addition suggests a closely integrated group of non-Scandinavian and non-English speaking European countries plus Japan and Israel. Furthermore, there is indication for some, albeit weak business cycle integration in Southeast Asia and in South America. The international business cycle is thus found to have a hierarchical structure.

Use of drought response index for identification of drought tolerant genotypes in rainfed lowland rice

Drought is a major constraint for rice production in the rainfed lowlands in Southeast Asia and Eastern India. The breeding programs for tainted lowland rice in these regions focus on adaptation to a range of drought conditions. However, a method of selection of drought tolerant genotypes has not been established and is considered to be one of the constraints faced by rice breeders. Drought response index (DRI) is based on grain yield adjusted for variation in potential yield and flowering date, and has been used recently, but its consistency among drought environments and hence its usefulness is not certain. In order to establish a selection method and subsequently to identify donor parents for drought resistance breeding, a series of experiments with 15 contrasting genotypes was conducted under well-watered and managed drought conditions at two sites for 5 years in Cambodia. Water level in the field was recorded and used to estimate the relative water level (WLREL) around flowering as an index of the severity of water deficit at the time of flowering for each entry. This was used to determine if DRI or yield reduction was due to drought tolerance or related to the amount of available water at flowering, i.e. drought escape. Grain yield reduction due to drought ranged from 12 to 46%. The drought occurred mainly during the reproductive phase, while four experiments had water stress from the early vegetative stage. There was significant variation for water availability around flowering among the nine experiments and this was associated with variation in mean yield reduction. Genotypic variation in DRI was consistent among most experiments, and genotypic mean DRI ranged from -0.54 to 0.47 (LSD 5% = 0.47). Genotypic variation in DRI was not related to WLREL around flowering in the nine environments. It is concluded that selection for DRI under drought conditions would allow breeders to identify donor lines with high drought tolerance as an important component of breeding better adapted varieties for the rainfed lowlands; two genotypes were identified with high DRI and low yield reduction and were subsequently used in the breeding program in Cambodia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Book review of Mark McGillivray and Gary Smith's (eds.) "Australia and Asia", Melbourne: Oxford University Press, 1997. vii + 248 pp

The political capital invested in Australia's engagement with Asia over the past decade has sparked a lively discussion in the Australian academic community. The back cover of the book under review suggests that there are 'few bigger contemporary issues facing Australia than its relationship with Asia'. If the volume of scholarly material being produced on this issue is any indication, they are right. Like a number of similar works covering the shift in Australian foreign, defence, and trade policies towards Asia over the last decade, this book acknowledges a particular debt of gratitude to the Keating government for establishing regional engagement at the forefront of our national consciousness. Unlike some others however, this book seeks to place Australia's more recent 'discovery' of Asia into a broader historical framework.

A survey of dental and oral trauma in south-east Queensland during 1998

Background: This project investigated the aetiology of dental and oral trauma in a population in southeast Queensland. The literature shows there is a lack of dental trauma studies which are representative of the general Australian population. Method: Twelve suburbs in the south-east district of Queensland were randomly selected according to population density in these suburbs for each 25th percentile. All dental clinics in these suburbs were eligible to participate. Patients presenting with dental and oral trauma were eligible to participate. Results: A total of 197 patients presented with dental/oral trauma over a 12 month period. The age of patients ranged from 1-64 years whilst the most frequently presenting age group was 6-10 years. There was a total of 363 injured teeth with an average of 1.8 injured teeth per patient. Males significantly outnumbered females in the incidence of trauma. Conclusions: The highest frequency of trauma occurred in the 6-10 year age group. Most injuries in this group occurred while playing or riding bicycles. In the next most prevalent trauma group, 16-20 years, trauma occurred as a result of fighting and playing sport. Overall, males significantly outnumbered females by approximately 1.8:1.0. The majority of injuries in the deciduous dentition were to periodontal tissues. In the secondary dentition most injuries were to hard dental tissue and pulp.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

A short note on starch and xylem of Colocasia esculenta (taro) in archaeological deposits from Pitcairn Island, southeast Polynesia

We present results of starch analysis of archaeological deposits from Pitcairn Island. High concentrations of starch grains preserved in cell membranes, and xylem tracheary elements, consistent with introduced Colocasia esculenta (taro) were found. Because of limited age control, we are uncertain if the microfossils are prehistoric. Problems associated with identifying taxa with small starch grains in extractions from weathered deposits are highlighted. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Genetic Speciation of Archaeological Fish Bone: A Feasibility Study from Southeast Queensland

Current genetic methods enable highly specific identification of DNA from modern fish bone. The applicability of these methods to the identification of archaeological fish bone was investigated through a study of a sample from late Holocene southeast Queensland sites. The resultant overall success rate of 2% indicates that DNA analysis is, as yet, not feasible for identifying fish bone from any given site. Taphonomic issues influencing the potential of genetic identification methods are raised and discussed in light of this result.

A shift from passive teaching at medical conferences to more interactive methods improves physician learning

Conferences that deliver interactive sessions designed to enhance physician participation, such as role play, small discussion groups, workshops, hands-on training, problem- or case-based learning and individualised training sessions, are effective for physician education.