Economics, Wildlife Tourism and Conservation: Three Case Studies

This report presents the results of an economics component of the National Interdisciplinary Project (NIP) on wildlife tourism in Australia. The main objectives of the study were to outline and assess the role that economics can play in the valuation and management of wildlife-based tourism, undertake appropriate case studies to highlight the value of economics and its limits in assessing wildlife tourism in each case, take into account relevant environmental issues involved in wildlife tourism, and make future recommendations.

Knowledge of birds and willingness to pay for their conservation: An Australian case study

This case study concentrates on the extent of knowledge of members of the Australian public of Australia’s tropical bird species and their willingness to pay for their conservation. In order to place this issue in context, it first provides background information on the status of Australian bird species, focusing attention on species that occur in tropical Australia. Then, using survey results, this study considers the hypothesis that the public’s relative support for the conservation of different bird species depends on its comparative knowledge of their existence and status. Based on experimental results from a sample of residents of Brisbane, Queensland (Australia), it is found that their knowledge of bird species that occur exclusively in the Australian tropics (including tropical Queensland) is very poor compared to those that also occur in the Brisbane area and are relatively common. Experimental results indicate that when respondents in the sample had an option to allocate $1,000 between ten bird species listed in the survey, it resulted in a greater allocation of funds to the better known and more common species than when they were provided with balanced information about all the selected species. With balanced information the average allocation to bird species confined mostly to the Australian tropics, particularly those threatened or endangered, increased. The general consequences of this for policies for the conservation of birds are discussed.

Outcome with calcium channel antagonists after myocardial infarction: A community-based study

Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk of death and recurrent myocardial infarction associated with the use of calcium antagonists after myocardial infarction in a population-based cohort study. Background. Calcium antagonists are commonly prescribed after myocardial infarction, but their long-term effects are not well established. Methods. Patients 25 to 69 years old with a suspected myocardial infarction were identified and followed up through a community-based register of myocardial infarction and cardiac death (part of the World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease [MONICA] Project in Newcastle, Australia). Data were collected by review of medical records, in-hospital interview and review of death certificates. Results. From 1989 to 1993, 3,982 patients with a nonfatal suspected myocardial infarction were enrolled in the study. At hospital discharge, 1,001 patients were treated with beta-adrenergic blocking agents, 923 with calcium antagonists, 711 with both beta-blockers and calcium antagonists and 1,346 with neither drug. Compared with patients given beta-blockers, patients given calcium antagonists were more likely to suffer myocardial infarction or cardiac death (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 1.9), cardiac death (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.7) and death from all causes (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.6). Compared with patients given neither beta-blockers nor calcium antagonists, patients given calcium antagonists were not at increased risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.3), cardiac death (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2) or death from all causes (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.3). No excess in risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death was observed among patients taking verapamil (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.6), diltiazem (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4) or nifedipine (RR 1.3, 95% CI 0.7 to 2.2) compared,vith patients taking neither calcium antagonists nor beta-blockers. Conclusions. These results are consistent with randomized trial data showing benefit from beta blockers after myocardial infarction and no effect on the risk of recurrent myocardial infarction and death with the use of calcium antagonists. Comparisons between beta-blockers and calcium antagonists favor beta blockers because of the beneficial effects of beta-blockers and not because of adverse effects of calcium antagonists. (C) 1998 by the American College of Cardiology.

Coronary events and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke: a case-control study from Australia and New Zealand

Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.

Programming internet based DAI applications in Qu-Prolog

This paper presents the unique collection of additional features of Qu-Prolog, a variant of the Al programming language Prolog, and illustrates how they can be used for implementing DAI applications. By this we mean applications comprising communicating information servers, expert systems, or agents, with sophisticated reasoning capabilities and internal concurrency. Such an application exploits the key features of Qu-Prolog: support for the programming of sound non-clausal inference systems, multi-threading, and high level inter-thread message communication between Qu-Prolog query threads anywhere on the internet. The inter-thread communication uses email style symbolic names for threads, allowing easy construction of distributed applications using public names for threads. How threads react to received messages is specified by a disjunction of reaction rules which the thread periodically executes. A communications API allows smooth integration of components written in C, which to Qu-Prolog, look like remote query threads.

Public health implications of new guidelines for lead in drinking water: a case study in an area with historically high water lead levels

Concern about the neurotoxicity of lead, particularly in infants and young children, has led to a revision of blood lead levels which are considered to involve an acceptable level of human exposure. Drinking water guidelines have also been reviewed in order to reduce this source of population exposure to lead. In the last 20 years, guidelines have been reduced from 100 to 50 to 10 mu g/litre. Lead in tap water used to be a major public health problem in Glasgow because of the high prevalence of houses with lead service pipes, the low pH of the public water supply and the resulting high levels of lead in water used for public consumption. Following two separate programmes of water treatment, involving the addition of lime and, a decade later, lime supplemented with orthophosphate, it is considered that maximal measures have been taken to reduce lead exposure by chemical treatment of the water supply. Any residual problem of public exposure would require large scale replacement of lead service pipes. In anticipation of the more stringent limits for lead in drinking water, we set out to measure current lead exposure From tap water in the population of Glasgow served by the Loch Katrine water supply. to compare the current situation with 12 years previously and to assess the public health implications of different limits. The study was based on mothers of young children since maternal blood lead concentrations and the domestic water that mothers use to prepare bottle feeds are the principal sources of foetal and infant lead exposure. An estimated 17% of mothers lived in households with tap water lead concentrations of 10 mu g/litre (the WHO guideline) or above in 1993 compared with 49% in 1981. Mean maternal blood lead concentrations fell by 69% in 12 years. For a given water lead concentration, maternal blood lead concentrations were 67% lower. The mean maternal blood lead concentration was 3.7 mu g/litre in the population at large, compared with 3.3 mu g/litre in households with negligible or absent tap water lead. Nevertheless, between 63% and 76% of cases of mothers with blood lead concentrations of 10 mu g/dl or above were attributable to tap water lead. The study found that maternal blood lead concentrations were well within limits currently considered safe for human health. About 15% of infants may be exposed via bottle feeds to tap water lead concentrations that exceed the WHO guideline of 10 mu g/litre. In the context of the health and social problems which affect the well-being and development of infants and children in Glasgow, however, current levels of lend exposure are considered to present a relatively minor health problem. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm: lessons from a population-based study

Objectives: To test the acceptability of screening and to identify modifiable risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in men. Design: A trial of ultrasound screening for AAA in a population-based random sample of men aged 65-83 years, and a cross-sectional case-control comparison of men in the same sample. Participants: 12203 men who had an ultrasound examination of their abdominal aorta, and completed a questionnaire covering demographic, behavioural and medical factors. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of AAA, and independent associations of AAA with demographic, medical and lifestyle factors. Results: Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. The prevalence of AAAs (> 30 mm) rose from 4.8% in men aged 65-69 years to 10.8% in those aged 80-83 years. The overall prevalence of large (> 50 mm) aneurysms was 0.69%. In a multivariate logistic model Mediterranean-born men had a 40% lower risk of AAA (> 30 mm) compared with men born in Australia (odds ratio [OR], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8), while ex-smokers had a significantly increased risk of AAA (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.9-2.8), and current smokers had even higher risks. AAA was significantly associated with established coronary and peripheral arterial disease and a waist:hip ratio greater than 0.9; men who regularly undertook vigorous exercise had a lower risk (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-1.0). Conclusion: Ultrasound screening for AAA is acceptable to men in the likely target population. AAA shares some but not all of the risk factors for occlusive vascular disease, but the scope for primary prevention of AAA in later life is limited.

The case for a new system for oversight of research on human subjects

The increasing emphasis on evidence-based clinical practice has thrown into sharp focus multiple deficiencies in current systems of ethical review. This paper argues that a complete overhaul of systems for ethical oversight of studies involving human subjects is now required as developments in medical, epidemiological and genetic research have outstripped existing structures for ethical supervision. It shows that many problems are now evident and concludes that sequential and piecemeal amendments to present arrangements an inadequate to address these. Ar their core present systems of ethical review still rely on the integrity and judgement of individual investigators. One possible alternative is to train and license research investigators, make explicit their responsibilities and have ethics committees devote much more of their time to monitoring research activity in order to detect those infringing the rules.

An assumption-driven case-specific model editor

A case sensitive intelligent model editor has been developed for constructing consistent lumped dynamic process models and for simplifying them using modelling assumptions. The approach is based on a systematic assumption-driven modelling procedure and on the syntax and semantics of process,models and the simplifying assumptions.

Finger and A-B ridge count, and fluctuating asymmetry in psychosis: A catchment area case-control study

Dermatoglyphic measures are of interest to schizophrenia research because they serve as persistent markers of deviant development in foetal life. Several studies have reported alterations in A–B ridge counts, total finger ridge counts and measures related to asymmetry in schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to assess these measures in an Australian catchment area, case-control study. Individuals with psychosisŽns246.were drawn from a catchment-area prevalence study, and well controlsŽns229. were recruited from the same area. Finger and palm prints were taken usingan inkless technique and all dermatoglyphic measures were assessed by a trained rater blind to case status. The dermatoglyphic measures Žfinger ridge count, A–B ridge count, and their derived asymmetry measures. were divided into quartiles based on the distribution of these variables in controls. The main analysis Žlogistic regression controlled for age and sex.examined all psychotic disorders, with planned subgroup analyses comparing controls with Ž1. nonaffective psychosis Žschizophrenia, delusional disorder, schizophreniform psychosis, atypical psychosis.andŽ2. affective psychosis Ždepression with psychosis, bipolar disorder, schizoaffective psychosis.. There were no statistically significant alterations in the odds of havinga psychotic disorder for any of the dermatoglyphic measures. The results did not change when we examined affective and nonaffective psychosis separately. The dermatoglyphic features that distinguish schizophreniar psychosis in other studies were not identified in this Australian study. Regional variations in these findings may provide clues to differential ethnicrgenetic and environmental factors that are associated with schizophrenia. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing teams for first-of-a-kind, complex systems using the initial phases of cognitive work analysis: Case study

We present a technique for team design based on cognitive work analysis (CWA). We first develop a rationale for this technique by discussing the limitations of conventional approaches for team design in light of the special characteristics of first-of-a-kind, complex systems. We then introduce the CWA-based technique for team design and provide a case study of how we used this technique to design a team for a first-of-a-kind, complex military system during the early stages of its development. In addition to illustrating the CWA-based technique by example, the case study allows us to evaluate the technique. This case study demonstrates that the CWA-based technique for team design is both feasible and useful, although empirical validation of the technique is still necessary. Applications of this work include the design of teams for first-of-a-kind, complex systems in military, medical, and industrial domains.

Aspects of adaptive management of coastal wetlands: Case studies of processes, conservation, restoration, impacts and assessment

Coastal wetlands are dynamic and include the freshwater-intertidal interface. In many parts of the world such wetlands are under pressure from increasing human populations and from predicted sea-level rise. Their complexity and the limited knowledge of processes operating in these systems combine to make them a management challenge.Adaptive management is advocated for complex ecosystem management (Hackney 2000; Meretsky et al. 2000; Thom 2000;National Research Council 2003).Adaptive management identifies management aims,makes an inventory/environmental assessment,plans management actions, implements these, assesses outcomes, and provides feedback to iterate the process (Holling 1978;Walters and Holling 1990). This allows for a dynamic management system that is responsive to change. In the area of wetland management recent adaptive approaches are exemplified by Natuhara et al. (2004) for wild bird management, Bunch and Dudycha (2004) for a river system, Thom (2000) for restoration, and Quinn and Hanna (2003) for seasonal wetlands in California. There are many wetland habitats for which we currently have only rudimentary knowledge (Hackney 2000), emphasizing the need for good information as a prerequisite for effective management. The management framework must also provide a way to incorporate the best available science into management decisions and to use management outcomes as opportunities to improve scientific understanding and provide feedback to the decision system. Figure 9.1 shows a model developed by Anorov (2004) based on the process-response model of Maltby et al. (1994) that forms a framework for the science that underlies an adaptive management system in the wetland context.

Management, conservation and farming of saltwater crocodiles: An Australian case study of sustainable commercial use

Opinions differ about what types of policies are likely to be most effective in conserving wildlife species. For example, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) is based on the premise that curbing the commercial use of endangered species favours their conservation, whereas the Convention on Biological Diversity envisages the possibility that such use may contribute to the conservation of species. In Australia, as illustrated in the case of the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus), the governments of the Northern Territory and Western Australia have favoured the latter policy in recent years, whereas Queensland has favoured the former approach. The saltwater crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory provides an instructive case study of the consequences of adopting a commercial use strategy to promote wildlife conservation. The methodology used in this study, which involves a survey of crocodile farm managers and managers of cattle properties in the Northern Territory as well as secondary data, is outlined, after providing background on the conservation status of saltwater crocodiles in Australia and the saltwater crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory. In the results section, after outlining the nature and structure of the Northern Territory crocodile farming industry, evidence is presented on whether or not the crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory encourages pastoralists to conserve crocodiles on their properties. This study concludes with a discussion of the overall conservation effectiveness of the crocodile management scheme of the Northern Territory and considers its possible implications for saltwater crocodile management in areas of Asia where the species occurs.

Public valuation of and attitudes towards the conservation and use of the Hawksbill turtle: An Australian case study

Managing hawksbill turtle populations for use and conservation requires (i) adequate scientific understanding of their population status and dynamics and (ii) consideration of the public’s attitudes to this species. This study employs experimental surveys to assess the Australian public’s attitudes towards the hawksbill turtle, their knowledge of it, their views about its sustainable commercial harvesting, and their support and financial contribution for the species’ conservation. Contingent valuation reveals that the Australian public’s willingness to contribute to the conservation of the hawksbill turtle is high even in comparison to threatened Australian bird and mammal fauna. Most of this stated contribution is based on the intrinsic (non-use) value associated with the hawksbill turtle. It seems that the Australian public will only accept its harvesting if the sustainability of this is assured and its population is more secure. The CITES categorisation of the hawksbill as an Appendix I species hampers the development of techniques for its sustainable use.