A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Measuring range of active cervical rotation in a position of full head flexion using the 3D Fastrak measurement system: an intra-tester reliability study

Most external assessments of cervical range of motion assess the upper and lower cervical regions simultaneously. This study investigated the within and between days reliability of the clinical method used to bias this movement to the upper cervical region, namely measuring rotation of the head and neck in a position of full cervical flexion. Measurements were made using the Fastrak measurement system and were conducted by one operator. Results indicated high levels of within and between days repeatability (range of ICC2,1 values: 0.85-0.95). The ranges of axial rotation to right and left, measured with the neck positioned in full flexion, were approximately 56% and 50%, respectively of total cervical rotation, which relates well to the proportional division of rotation in the upper and lower cervical regions. These results suggest that this method of measuring rotation would be appropriate for use in subject studies where movement dysfunction is present in the upper cervical region, such as those with cervicogenic headache. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Birth in the northern quoll, Dasyurus hallucatus (Marsupialia : Dasyuridae)

Birth has been observed in a number of marsupial species and, in the studies to date, the newborn have crawled up to or across to the pouch. The method of birth in the quoll, a dasyurid, differs greatly from that observed in other marsupials. Births were recorded at normal speed using hand-held digital video cameras. Birth was heralded by a release of about 1 mL of watery fluid from the urogenital sinus followed by gelatinous material contained in either one or two tubes emanating from the sinus. The newborn, still encased in their placental membranes, were in the gelatinous material within a column. To exit this column, they had to grasp a hair and wriggle about 1 cm across to the pouch. In the pouch the newborn young had to compete for a teat. Although the quolls possessed 8 teats, the number of young in the pouch immediately after birth was 17, 16, 6, 16, 13 and 11 for each of the 6 quolls filmed. While birth has been described previously in another two dasyurids, the observers did not describe birth as reported here for the quoll. Nevertheless the movement of the newborn from the sinus to the pouch is so quick that this could have previously been missed. Filming birth from beneath and from the side allowed for a greater understanding of the birth process. Further studies are required to determine whether this use of a gelatinous material is part of the birth process in all dasyurids.

Respiratory health effects of cannabis: Position statement of the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand

Both the gaseous and the particulate phases of tobacco and cannabis smoke contain a similar range of harmful chemicals. However, differing patterns of inhalation mean that smoking a 'joint' of cannabis results in exposure to significantly greater amounts of combusted material than with a tobacco cigarette. The histopathological effects of cannabis smoke exposure include changes consistent with acute and chronic bronchitis. Cellular dysplasia has also been observed, suggesting that, like tobacco smoke, cannabis exposure has the potential to cause malignancy. These features are consistent with the clinical presentation. Symptoms of cough and early morning sputum production are common (20-25%) even in young individuals who smoke cannabis alone. Almost all studies indicate that the effects of cannabis and tobacco smoking are additive and independent. Public health education should dispel the myth that cannabis smoking is relatively safe by highlighting that the adverse respiratory effects of smoking cannabis are similar to those of smoking tobacco, even although it remains to be confirmed that smoking cannabis alone leads to the development of chronic lung disease.

Birth of Koalas Phascolarctos cinereus at Lone Pine Koala Sanctuary following artificial insemination

This paper documents the successful development of an artificial insemination (AI) programme for the Koala Phascolurctos cinereus. The protocols for trials involving two methods to induce ovulation and two insemination techniques are described. In Trial 1, interrupted coitus using a 'teaser'♂ successfully induced ovulation in nine Koalas. Five ♀♀ were inseminated while conscious using a modified 'foley catheter' (Cook insemination catheter) resulting in the births of two offspring. The other four ♀♀ were anaesthetized and inseminated using a technique which allowed visualization of the most cranial portion of the urogenital sinus, where semen was deposited using a 3.5 Fr. 'Tom-cat catheter' (urogen-itoscopic insemination). Three of the four ♀♀ inseminated by this technique produced pouch young. Microsatellite analysis of DNA from the pouch young excluded the teaser ♀♀ as possible sires, confirming that all offspring were sired by donor sperm. In Trial 2, eight ♀♀ were induced to ovulate by injecting them with 250 International Units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG). A luteal phase was confirmed in all eight ♀♀ but only one gave birth following urogenitoscopic insemination. The Koala pouch young in this study are the first of any marsupial to be conceived and born following A1 procedures. Details of the A1 procedures used are presented and the significance of A1 to the conservation biology of P. cinereus discussed.

Impact of bronchopulmonary dysplasia, brain injury, and severe retinopathy on the outcome of extremely low-birth-weight infants at 18 months

CONTEXT: Despite more than 2 decades of outcomes research after very preterm birth, clinicians remain uncertain about the extent to which neonatal morbidities predict poor long-term outcomes of extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW) infants. OBJECTIVE: To determine the individual and combined prognostic effects of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), ultrasonographic signs of brain injury, and severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) on 18-month outcomes of ELBW infants. DESIGN: Inception cohort assembled for the Trial of Indomethacin Prophylaxis in Preterms (TIPP). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 910 infants with birth weights of 500 to 999 g who were admitted to 1 of 32 neonatal intensive care units in Canada, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong between 1996 and 1998 and who survived to a postmenstrual age of 36 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Combined end point of death or survival to 18 months with 1 or more of cerebral palsy, cognitive delay, severe hearing loss, and bilateral blindness. RESULTS: Each of the neonatal morbidities was similarly and independently correlated with a poor 18-month outcome. Odds ratios were 2.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-3.2) for BPD, 3.7 (95% CI, 2.6-5.3) for brain injury, and 3.1 (95% CI, 1.9-5.0) for severe ROP. In children who were free of BPD, brain injury, and severe ROP the rate of poor long-term outcomes was 18% (95% CI, 14%-22%). Corresponding rates with any 1, any 2, and all 3 neonatal morbidities were 42% (95% CI, 37%-47%), 62% (95% CI, 53%-70%), and 88% (64%-99%), respectively. CONCLUSION: In ELBW infants who survive to a postmenstrual age of 36 weeks, a simple count of 3 common neonatal morbidities strongly predicts the risk of later death or neurosensory impairment.