Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

Platyhelminth phylogenetics - a key to understanding parasitism?

The comparative method, the inference of biological processes from phylogenetic patterns, is founded on the reliability of the phylogenetic tree. In attempting to apply the comparative method to the understanding of the evolution of parasitism in the phylum Platyhelminthes, we have highlighted several points we consider to be of value along with many problems. We discuss four of these topics. Firstly, we view the group at a phylum level, in particular discussing the importance of establishing the sister taxon to the obligate parasite group, the Neodermata, for addressing such questions as the monophyly, parasitism or the endo or ectoparasitic nature of the early parasites. The variety of non-congruent phylogenetic trees presented so far, utilising either or both morphological and molecular data, gives rise to the suggestion that any evolutionary scenarios presented at this stage be treated as interesting hypotheses rather than well-supported theories. Our second point of discussion is the conflict between morphological and molecular estimates of monogenean evolution. The Monogenea presents several well-established morphological autapomorphies, such that morphology consistently estimates the group as monophyletic, whereas molecular sequence analyses indicate paraphyly, with different genes giving different topologies. We discuss the problem of reconciling gene and species trees. Thirdly, we use recent phylogenetic results on the tapeworms to interpret the evolution of strobilation, proglottization, segmentation and scolex structure. In relation to the latter, the results presented indicate that the higher cestodes are diphyletic, with one branch difossate and the other tetrafossate. Finally, we use a SSU rDNA phylogenetic tree of the Trematoda as a basis for the discussion of an aspect of the digenean life-cycle, namely the nature of the first intermediate host. Frequent episodes of host-switching, between gastropod and bivalve hosts or even into annelids, are indicated.

A small disturbance in the strong vortex flow

A small disturbance in the axisymmetric, bathtub-like flow with strong vorticity is considered and the asymptotic representation of the solution is found. It is shown that if the disturbance is smaller than a certain critical scale, the conventional strong vortex approximation cannot describe the field generated by the disturbance not only in the vicinity of the disturbance but also at the distances much larger than the critical scale. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

The nature and evolution of the association among digeneans, molluscs and fishes

Patterns of association of digenean families and their mollusc and vertebrate hosts are assessed by way of a new database containing information on over 1000 species of digeneans for lift-cycles and over 5000 species from fishes. Analysis of the distribution of digenean families in molluscs suggests that the group was associated primitively with gastropods and that infection of polychaetes, bivalves and scaphopods are all the results of host-switching. For the vertebrates. infections of agnathans and chondrichthyans are apparently the result of host-switching from teleosts. For digenean families the ratio of orders of fishes infected to superfamilies of molluscs infected ranges from 0.5 (Mesometridae) to 16 (Bivesiculidae) and has a mean of 5.6. Individual patterns of host association of 13 dipenean families and superfamilies are reviewed. Two, Bucephalidae and Sanguinicolidae. are exceptional in infecting a range of first intermediate hosts qualitatively as broad as their range of definitive hosts. No well-studied taxon shows narrower association with vertebrate than with mollusc clades. The range of definitive hosts of digeneans is characteristically defined by eco-physiological similarity rather than phylogenetic relationship. The range of associations of digenean families with mollusc taxa is generally much narrower. These data are considered in the light of ideas about the significance of different forms of host association. If Manter's Second Rule (the longer the association with a host group, the mure pronounced the specificity exhibited by the parasite group) is invoked, then the data may suggest that the Digenea first parasitised molluscs before adopting vertebrate hosts. This interpretation is consistent with most previous ideas about the evolution of the Digenea but contrary to current interpretations based on the monophyly of the Neodermata. The basis of Manter's Second Rule is. however, considered too flimsy for this interpretation to be robust. Problems of the inference of the evolution of patterns of parasitism in the Neodermata al-e discussed and considered so intractable that the truth may be presently unknowable. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of alcohol consumption on indices of iron stores and of iron stores on alcohol intake markers

Background: Alcohol increases body iron stores. Alcohol and iron may increase oxidative stress and the risk of alcohol-related liver disease. The relationship between low or safe levels of alcohol use and indices of body iron stores, and the factors that affect the alcohol-iron relationship, have not been fully characterized. Other aspects of the biological response to alcohol use have been reported to depend on iron status. Methods: We have measured serum iron, transferrin, and ferritin as indices of iron stores in 3375 adult twin subjects recruited through the Australian Twin Registry. Information on alcohol use and dependence and smoking was obtained from questionnaires and interviews. Results: Serum iron and ferritin increased progressively across classes of alcohol intake. The effects of beer consumption were greater than those of wine or spirits. Ferritin concentration was significantly higher in subjects who had ever been alcohol dependent. There was no evidence of interactions between HFE genotype or body mass index and alcohol. Alcohol intake-adjusted carbohydrate-deficient transferrin was increased in women in the lowest quartile of ferritin results, whereas adjusted gamma -glutamyltransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase values were increased in subjects with high ferritin. Conclusions: Alcohol intake at low level increases ferritin and, by inference, body iron stores. This may be either beneficial or harmful, depending on circumstances. The response of biological markers of alcohol intake can be affected by body iron stores; this has implications for test sensitivity and specificity and for variation in biological responses to alcohol use.

On surrogate methods for detecting lateral gene transfer

Surrogate methods for detecting lateral gene transfer are those that do not require inference of phylogenetic trees. Herein I apply four such methods to identify open reading frames (ORFs) in the genome of Escherichia coli K12 that may have arisen by lateral gene transfer. Only two of these methods detect the same ORFs more frequently than expected by chance, whereas several intersections contain many fewer ORFs than expected. Each of the four methods detects a different non-random set of ORFs. The methods may detect lateral ORFs of different relative ages; testing this hypothesis will require rigorous inference of trees. (C) 2001 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science BN. All rights reserved.

Optimal input states and feedback for interferometric phase estimation

We derive optimal N-photon two-mode input states for interferometric phase measurements. Under canonical measurements the phase variance scales as N-2 for these states, as compared to N-1 or N-1/2 for states considered bq previous authors. We prove, that it is not possible to realize the canonical measurement by counting photons in the outputs of the interferometer, even if an adjustable auxiliary phase shift is allowed in the interferometer. However. we introduce a feedback algorithm based on Bayesian inference to control this auxiliary phase shift. This makes the measurement close to a canonical one, with a phase variance scaling slightly above N-2. With no feedback, the best result (given that the phase to be measured is completely unknown) is a scaling of N-1. For optimal input states having up to four photons, our feedback scheme is the best possible one, but for higher photon numbers more complicated schemes perform marginally better.

Phase sensitive pumping and coherence of superposition states

The continuous parametric pumping of a superconducting lossy QED cavity supporting a field prepared initially as a superposition of coherent states is discussed. In contrast to classical pumping, we verify that the phase sensitivity of the parametric pumping makes the asymptotic behaviour of the cavity field state strongly dependent on the phase theta of the coherent state \ alpha > = \ alpha \e(i theta)>. Here we consider theta = pi /4, -pi /4 and we analyse the evolution of the purity of the superposition states with the help of the linear entropy and fidelity functions. We also analyse the decoherence process quantitatively through the Wigner function, for both states, verifying that the decay is slightly modified when compared to the free decoherence case: for theta = -pi /4 the process is accelerated while for theta = pi /4 it is delayed.

A multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships using 16S rDNA data

The 16S rRNA gene (16S rDNA) is currently the most widely used gene for estimating the evolutionary history of prokaryotes, To date, there are more than 30 000 16S rDNA sequences available from the core databases, GenBank, EMBL and DDBJ, This great number may cause a dilemma when composing datasets for phylogenetic analysis, since the choice and number of reference organisms are known to affect the resulting tree topology. A group of sequences appearing monophyletic in one dataset may not be so in another. This can be especially problematic when establishing the relationships of distantly related sequences at the division (phylum) level. In this study, a multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships is suggested using 16S rDNA data. The approach is illustrated by two case studies concerning the monophyly of two recently proposed bacterial divisions, OP9 and OP10.

Inferring population history from microsatellite and enzyme data in serially introduced cane toads, Bufo marinus

Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.

Interferon-gamma enhances cytotoxic T lymphocyte recognition of endogenous peptide in keratinocytes without lowering the requirement for surface peptide

Keratinocytes expressing the human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 E7 protein, as a transgene driven by the K14 promoter, form a murine model of HPV-mediated epithelial cancers in humans. Our previous studies have shown that K14E7 transgenic skin grafts onto syngeneic mice are not susceptible to immune destruction despite the demonstrated presence of a strong, systemic CTL response directed against the E7 protein. Consistent with this finding, we now show that cultured, E7 transgenic keratinocytes (KC) express comparable endogenous levels of E7 protein to a range of CTL-sensitive E7-expressing cell lines but are not susceptible to CTL-mediated lysis in vitro . E7 transgenic and non-transgenic KC are susceptible to conventional mechanisms of CTL-mediated lysis, including perforin and Fas/FasL interaction when an excess of exogenous peptide is provided. The concentration of exogenous peptide required to render a cell susceptible to lysis was similar between KC and other conventional CTL targets (e.g. EL-4), despite large differences in H-2D(b) expression at the cell surface. Furthermore, exposure of KC to IFN-gamma increased H-2D(b) expression, but did not substantially alter the exogenous peptide concentration required to sensitize cells for half maximal lysis. In contrast, the lytic sensitivity of transgenic KC expressing endogenous E7 is modestly improved by exposure to IFN-gamma. Thus, failure of CTL to eliminate KC expressing endogenous E7, and by inference squamous tumours expressing E7, may reflect the need for a sustained, local inflammatory environment during the immune effector phase.

Set-valued Markov chains and negative semitrajectories of discretized dynamical systems

Computer simulation of dynamical systems involves a phase space which is the finite set of machine arithmetic. Rounding state values of the continuous system to this grid yields a spatially discrete dynamical system, often with different dynamical behaviour. Discretization of an invertible smooth system gives a system with set-valued negative semitrajectories. As the grid is refined, asymptotic behaviour of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws which correspond to a set-valued Markov chain, whose transition probabilities can be explicitly calculated. The results are illustrated for two-dimensional dynamical systems obtained by discretization of fractional linear transformations of the unit disc in the complex plane.

Integrability and exact solution for coupled BCS systems associated with the su(4) Lie algebra

We introduce an integrable model for two coupled BCS systems through a solution of the Yang-Baxter equation associated with the Lie algebra su(4). By employing the algebraic Bethe ansatz, we determine the exact solution for the energy spectrum. An asymptotic analysis is conducted to determine the leading terms in the ground state energy, the gap and some one point correlation functions at zero temperature. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).