60 resultados para What-if Analysis
Resumo:
Hereditary hemochromatosis (HHC) is an inherited disorder of iron metabolism affecting approximately 1 in 200-300 individuals of Northern European descent. Over time, the continued deposition of iron in parenchymal cells of many organs can eventually lead to diabetes mellitus, cardiomyopathy, and hepatic cirrhosis, the last of which is frequently followed by hepatocellular carcinoma. Although the complications of HHC can be devastating, its clinical management is simple and effective if the disease is identified early in its progression. The recent elucidation of the HFE gene has provided insight into the pathogenesis of HHC and provided a means for the early identification of individuals in whom HHC may develop. Two mutations have been implicated in HHC: C282Y and H63D, The former occurs in a homozygous state seen in 75-100% of patients with HHC. The high correlation of HFE to HHC has caused it to be considered as a candidate gene for population-based genetic testing for diagnosis and detection of predisposition to HHC. In addition, mechanisms of iron transport and metabolism are unfolding and are providing clues to the enigma of iron homeostasis and the pathophysiology of iron overload, (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.
Resumo:
The authors discuss the regulation of rural land use and compensation for property-rights restrictions, both of which appear to have become more commonplace in recent years but also more contested. The implications of contemporary theories in relation to this matter are examined, including: the applicability of new welfare economics; the relevance of the neoclassical theory of politics; and the implications of contemporary theories of social conflict resolution and communication. Examination of examples of Swiss and Australian regulation of the use of rural properties, and the ensuing conflicts, reveals that many decisions reflect a mixture of these elements. Rarely, if ever, are social decisions in this area made solely on the basis of welfare economics, for instance social cost-benefit analysis. Only some aspects of such decisions can be explained by the neoclassical theory of politics. Theories of social conflict resolution suggest why, and in what way, approaches of discourse and participation may resolve conflicts regarding regulation and compensation. These theories and their practical application seem to gain in importance as opposition to government decisions increases. The high degree of complexity of most conflicts concerning regulation and compensation cannot be tackled with narrow economic theories. Moreover, the Swiss and Australian examples show that approaches involving conflict resolution may favour environmental standards.
Resumo:
In this article, we draw together aspects of contemporary theories of knowledge (particularly organisational knowledge) and complexity theory to demonstrate how appropriate conceptual rigor enables both the role of government and the directions of policy development in knowledge-based economies to be identified. Specifically we ask, what is the role of government in helping shape the knowledge society of the future? We argue that knowledge policy regimes must go beyond the modes of policy analysis currently used in innovation, information and technology policy because they are based in an industrial rather than post-industrial analytical framework. We also argue that if we are to develop knowledge-based economies, more encompassing images of the future than currently obtain in policy discourse are required. We therefore seek to stimulate and provoke an array of lines of thought about government and policy for such economies. Our objective is to focus on ideas more than argument and persuasion.
Resumo:
Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The cattle tick, Boophilus microplus, is a major pest of cattle in Australia, Central and South America, and parts of Africa and Asia. Control of ticks with organophosphates (OPs) and carbamates, which target acetylcholinesterases (AChE), led to evolution of resistance to these pesticides. Alleles at the locus studied here, AChE2, from OP-susceptible female ticks from Australia and Mexico differed at 46 of 1689 nucleotide positions (20 putative amino acid differences) whereas alleles from three strains of OP-resistant ticks from Australia differed with the allele from the Australian susceptible ticks at six to 13 nucleotide positions (three to six putative amino acid differences). However, the role, if any, of these polymorphisms in the OP-resistance phenotype is unknown. Certainly none of the polymorphisms correspond to sites in ACK that are involved in catalysis or binding of acetylcholine in other organisms. Both of the AChE loci of B. microplus, AChE1 and AChE2, are apparently expressed in synganglia; AChE1 is also expressed in salivary glands and ovaries, in OP-susceptible and OP-resistant ticks. This seems to contradict studies of enzyme kinetics, which indicated that only one form of AChE was present in the synganglia, the site of the action of OPs, in this species of tick. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper we use sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchies (Reising & Sanderson, 1996, 2002a,b) to show that unless appropriately instrumented, configural displays designed according to the principles of ecological interface design (EID) might be vulnerable to misinterpretation when sensors become unreliable or are unavailable. Building on foundations established in Reising and Sanderson (2002a) we use a pasteurization process control example to show how sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on a configural display that is part of an ecological interface. Our analyses suggest that configural displays showing higher-order properties of a system are especially vulnerable under some conservative instrumentation configurations. However, sensor-annotated AHs can be used to indicate where corrective instrumentation might be placed. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of displays for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy-and particularly its extension to the analysis of information captured by sensors and derived from sensors-may therefore be a useful adjunct to up-stream instrumentation design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Observational data collected in the Lake Tekapo hydro catchment of the Southern Alps in New Zealand are used to analyse the wind and temperature fields in the alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions. Measurements from surface stations, pilot balloon and tethersonde soundings, Doppler sodar and an instrumented light aircraft provide evidence of multi-scale interacting wind systems, ranging from microscale slope winds to mesoscale coast-to-basin flows. Thermal forcing of the winds occurred due to differential heating as a consequence of orography and heterogeneous surface features, which is quantified by heat budget and pressure field analysis. The daytime vertical temperature structure was characterised by distinct layering. Features of particular interest are the formation of thermal internal boundary layers due to the lake-land discontinuity and the development of elevated mixed layers. The latter were generated by advective heating from the basin and valley sidewalls by slope winds and by a superimposed valley wind blowing from the basin over Lake Tekapo and up the tributary Godley Valley. Daytime heating in the basin and its tributary valleys caused the development of a strong horizontal temperature gradient between the basin atmosphere and that over the surrounding landscape, and hence the development of a mesoscale heat low over the basin. After noon, air from outside the basin started flowing over mountain saddles into the basin causing cooling in the lowest layers, whereas at ridge top height the horizontal air temperature gradient between inside and outside the basin continued to increase. In the early evening, a more massive intrusion of cold air caused rapid cooling and a transition to a rather uniform slightly stable stratification up to about 2000 m agl. The onset time of this rapid cooling varied about 1-2 h between observation sites and was probably triggered by the decay of up-slope winds inside the basin, which previously countered the intrusion of air over the surrounding ridges. The intrusion of air from outside the basin continued until about mid-night, when a northerly mountain wind from the Godley Valley became dominant. The results illustrate the extreme complexity that can be caused by the operation of thermal forcing processes at a wide range of spatial scales.
Resumo:
Objective: To review the literature regarding the effectiveness of 5-hydroxytryptophan (5-HT) and L-tryptophan in the treatment of unipolar depression. Methods: A systematic review of the literature from 1966 to 2000 using the search terms 'tryptophan', 5-hydroxytryptophan', '5-HTP', '5-HT' and 'depression'. We extracted and grouped data for meta-analysis by pooling odds ratios (OR) and relative risks where possible. Results: One hundred and eight studies were located of which only two studies, one of 5-HT and one of L-tryptophan, with a total of 64 patients met sufficient quality criteria to be included. These studies suggest 5-HT and L-tryptophan are better than placebo at alleviating depression (Peto OR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.3-13.2). However, the small size of the studies, and the large number of inadmissible, poorly executed studies, casts doubt on the result from potential publication bias, and suggests that they are insufficiently evaluated to assess their effectiveness. Conclusions: A large body of evidence was subjected to very basic criteria for assessing reliability and validity, and was found to largely be of insufficient quality to inform clinical practice. More well-designed studies are urgently required to enable an assessment of what may be an effective class of agents.
Resumo:
Cervical auscultation presents as a noninvasive screening assessment of swallowing. Until now the focus of acoustic research in swallowing has been the characterization of swallowing sounds,. However, it may be that the technique is also suitable for the detection of respiratory sounds post swallow. A healthy relationship between swallowing and respiration is widely accepted as pivotal to safe swallowing. Previous investigators have shown that the expiratory phase of respiration commonly occurs prior to and after swallowing. That the larynx is valved shut during swallowing is also accepted. Previous research indicates that the larynx releases valved air immediately post swallow in healthy individuals. The current investigation sought to explore acoustic evidence of a release of subglottic air post swallow in nondysphagic individuals using a noninvasive medium. Fifty-nine healthy individuals spanning the ages of 18 to 60+ years swallowed 5 and 10 milliliters (ml) of thin and thick liquid boluses. Objective acoustic analysis was used to verify presence of the sound and to characterize its morphological features. The sound, dubbed the glottal release sound, was found to consistently occur in close proximity following the swallowing sound. The results indicated that the sound has distinct morphological features and that these change depending on the volume and viscosity of the bolus swallowed. Further research will be required to translate this information to a clinical tool.
Resumo:
Compression amplification significantly alters the acoustic speech signal in comparison to linear amplification. The central hypothesis of the present study was that the compression settings of a two-channel aid that best preserved the acoustic properties of speech compared to linear amplification would yield the best perceptual results, and that the compression settings that most altered the acoustic properties of speech compared to linear would yield significantly poorer speech perception. On the basis of initial acoustic analysis of the test stimuli recorded through a hearing aid, two different compression amplification settings were chosen for the perceptual study. Participants were 74 adults with mild to moderate sensorineural hearing impairment. Overall, the speech perception results supported the hypothesis. A further aim of the study was to determine if variation in participants' speech perception with compression amplification (compared to linear amplification) could be explained by the individual characteristics of age, degree of loss, dynamic range, temporal resolution, and frequency selectivity; however, no significant relationships were found.
Resumo:
Previous studies have shown that a deficiency in DNA damage repair is associated with increased cancer risk, and exposure to UV radiation is a major risk factor for the development of malignant melanoma. High density of common nevi (moles) is a major risk factor for cutaneous melanoma. A nevus may result from a mutation in a single UV-exposed melanocyte which failed to repair DNA damage in one or more critical genes. XRCC3 and XRCC5 may have an effect on nevus count through their function as components of DNA repair processes that may be involved directly or indirectly in the repair of DNA damage due to UV radiation. This study aims to test the hypothesis that the frequency of flat or raised moles is associated with polymorphism at or near these DNA repair genes, and that certain alleles are associated with less efficient DNA repair, and greater nevus density. Twins were recruited from schools in south eastern Queensland and were examined close to their 12th birthday. Nurses examined each individual and counted all moles on the entire body surface. A 10cM genome scan of 274 families (642 individuals) was performed and microsatellite polymorphisms in XRCC3 and adjacent to XRCC5 were also typed. Linkage and association of nevus count to these loci were tested simultaneously using a structural-equation modeling approach implemented in MX. There is weak evidence for linkage of XRCC5 to a QTL influencing raised mole count, and also weak association. There is also weak evidence for association between flat mole count and XRCC3. No tests were significant after correction for testing multiple alleles, nor were any of the tests for total association significant. If variation in XRCC3 or XRCC5 influences UV sensitivity, and indirectly affects nevus density, then the effects are small.
Resumo:
Background: Although early in life there is little discernible difference in bone mass between boys and girls, at puberty sex differences are observed. It is uncertain if these differences represent differences in bone mass or just differences in anthropometric dimensions. Aim: The study aimed to identify whether sex independently affects bone mineral content (BMC) accrual in growing boys and girls. Three sites are investigated: total body (TB), femoral neck (FN) and lumbar spine (LS). Subjects and methods: 85 boys and 67 girls were assessed annually for seven consecutive years. BMC was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Biological age was defined as years from age at peak height velocity (PHV). Data were analysed using a hierarchical (random effects) modelling approach. Results: When biological age, body size and body composition were controlled, boys had statistically significantly higher TB and FN BMC at all maturity levels (p < 0.05). No independent sex differences were found at the LS (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Although a statistical significant sex effect is observed, it is less than the error of the measurement, and thus sex difference are debatable. In general, sex difference are explained by anthropometric difference
Resumo:
This paper discusses a document discovery tool based on Conceptual Clustering by Formal Concept Analysis. The program allows users to navigate e-mail using a visual lattice metaphor rather than a tree. It implements a virtual. le structure over e-mail where files and entire directories can appear in multiple positions. The content and shape of the lattice formed by the conceptual ontology can assist in e-mail discovery. The system described provides more flexibility in retrieving stored e-mails than what is normally available in e-mail clients. The paper discusses how conceptual ontologies can leverage traditional document retrieval systems and aid knowledge discovery in document collections.
Resumo:
The alternative sigma factor sigB gene is involved in the stress response regulation of Listeria monocytogenes, and contributes towards growth and survival in adverse conditions. This gene was examined to determine if it could be a useful indicator of lineage differentiation, similar to the established method based on ribotyping. The sigB sequence was resolved in four local L. monocytogenes strains and the phylogenetic relationship among these, and a further 21 sigB gene sequences from strains of different serotype and lineage including two Listeria innocua strains, obtained from the GenBank database were determined. The sigB nucleotide sequences of these 25 Listeria strains were then examined for single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) sites that could differentiate between the three lineages. Based on nucleotide sequences L. monocytogenes lineage F serotype 1/2b and 4b clustered together, lineage II/serotype 1/2a and 1/2c strains clustered together, lineage III/serotypes 4a and 4c strains clustered together and L. innocua strains clustered together as an outgroup. SNPs differentiating the three lineages were identified. Individual allele-specific PCR reactions based on these polymorphisms were successful in grouping known and a further 37 local L. monocytogenes isolates into the three lineages. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.
Resumo:
The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.