Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Creating proactive interference in immediate recall: Building a DOG from a DART, a MOP, and a FIG

Phonemic codes are accorded a privileged role in most current models of immediate serial recall, although their effects are apparent in short-term proactive interference (PI) effects as well. The present research looks at how assumptions concerning distributed representation and distributed storage involving both semantic and phonemic codes might be operationalized to produce PI in a short-term cued recall task. The four experiments reported here attempted to generate the phonemic characteristics of a nonrhyming, interfering foil from unrelated filler items in the same list. PI was observed when a rhyme of the foil was studied or when the three phonemes of the foil were distributed across three studied filler items. The results suggest that items in short-term memory are stored in terms of feature bundles and that all items are simultaneously available at retrieval.

Nonword repetition and young children's receptive vocabulary: A longitudinal study

A longitudinal study investigated the claim that phonological memory contributes to vocabulary acquisition in young children. In the first phase, children were given tests of receptive vocabulary, receptive grammar, nonword repetition, phonological sensitivity (or awareness), and performance IQ. In the second phase, children were given the nonword repetition and receptive vocabulary tests. In Session 1, both nonword repetition and phonological sensitivity accounted for variation in receptive vocabulary and grammar after performance IQ effects were controlled. When phonological sensitivity was also controlled, nonword repetition did not account for significant additional variation in receptive vocabulary and grammar, When performance IQ and autoregression effects were controlled, all Session I verbal ability measures predicted Session 2 vocabulary, but only Session 1 vocabulary predicted Session 2 nonword repetition. When phonological sensitivity was also controlled. Session 1 nonword repetition (leniently scored) predicted Session 2 vocabulary. Overall, these findings show qualified support for the claim that the capacity component of nonword repetition contributes directly to vocabulary in young children. They suggest that the association between nonword repetition and vocabulary in young children may, to a substantial extent, reflect a latent phonological processing ability that is also manifest in phonological sensitivity.

Well-formedness judgment: A comparison of offline and online performance in Broca's aphasics

0na eg rcarmitimcaal tfieca tcuorem opfr ethhee nospieornat iodneafli cdietf i(nAitiCoDn )o ft hthaet frequently co-occurs with Broca’s aphasia is above-chance performance on well-formedness judgment tasks for many syntactic constructions, but impaired performance where syntactic binding of traces to their antecedents occurs. However, the methodologies used to establish this aspect of the performance profile of the ACD have been predominantly offline. Offline well-formedness tasks entail extralinguistic processing (e.g. perception, attention, short-term memory, conscious reflection) in varying amounts and the influence of such processes on parsing mechanisms is yet to be fully established. In order to (a) further understand the role of extra-linguistic processing on parsing, and (b) gain a more direct insight into the online nature of parsing in Broca’s aphasia, 8 subjects underwent a series of wellformedness judgment investigations using both offline and online test batteries. The sentence types and error types used were motivated by three current theories about the nature of the ACD, namely, the Trace-Based Account (Grodzinsky, 2000), the Mapping Hypothesis (Linebarger et al., 1983) and Capacity proposals (e.g. Frazier & Friederici, 1991). The results from the present investigation speak directly to the three aforementioned theories and also demonstrate the important role that extralinguistic processing plays during offline assessment. The clinical implications of the different outcomes from the offline vs. online tasks are also discussed.

On learning context-free and context-sensitive languages

The long short-term memory (LSTM) is not the only neural network which learns a context sensitive language. Second-order sequential cascaded networks (SCNs) are able to induce means from a finite fragment of a context-sensitive language for processing strings outside the training set. The dynamical behavior of the SCN is qualitatively distinct from that observed in LSTM networks. Differences in performance and dynamics are discussed.

A cognitive complexity metric applied to cognitive development

Two experiments tested predictions from a theory in which processing load depends on relational complexity (RC), the number of variables related in a single decision. Tasks from six domains (transitivity, hierarchical classification, class inclusion, cardinality, relative-clause sentence comprehension, and hypothesis testing) were administered to children aged 3-8 years. Complexity analyses indicated that the domains entailed ternary relations (three variables). Simpler binary-relation (two variables) items were included for each domain. Thus RC was manipulated with other factors tightly controlled. Results indicated that (i) ternary-relation items were more difficult than comparable binary-relation items, (ii) the RC manipulation was sensitive to age-related changes, (iii) ternary relations were processed at a median age of 5 years, (iv) cross-task correlations were positive, with all tasks loading on a single factor (RC), (v) RC factor scores accounted for 80% (88%) of age-related variance in fluid intelligence (compositionality of sets), (vi) binary- and ternary-relation items formed separate complexity classes, and (vii) the RC approach to defining cognitive complexity is applicable to different content domains. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Genetic influences on cognitive processes associated with distraction: An event-related potential study of the slow wave

The efficiency of inhibitory control processes has been proposed as a mechanism constraining working-memory capacity. In order to investigate genetic influences on processes that may reflect interference control, event-related potential (ER-P) activity recorded at frontal sites, during distracting and nondistracting conditions of a working-memory task, in a sample of 509 twin pairs was examined. The ERP component of interest was the slow wave (SW). Considerable overlap in source of genetic influence was found, with a common genetic factor accounting for 37 - 45% of SW variance irrespective of condition. However, 3 - 8 % of SW variance in the distracting condition was influenced by an independent genetic source. These results suggest that neural responses to irrelevant and distracting information, that may disrupt working-memory performance, differ in a fundamental way from perceptual and memory-based processing in a working-memory task. Furthermore, the results are consistent with the view that cognition is a complex genetic trait influenced by numerous genes of small influence.