Interference between propagating changes and its effect on system failure

Computer-based, socio-technical systems projects are frequently failures. In particular, computer-based information systems often fail to live up to their promise. Part of the problem lies in the uncertainty of the effect of combining the subsystems that comprise the complete system; i.e. the system's emergent behaviour cannot be predicted from a knowledge of the subsystems. This paper suggests uncertainty management is a fundamental unifying concept in analysis and design of complex systems and goes on to indicate that this is due to the co-evolutionary nature of the requirements and implementation of socio-technical systems. The paper shows a model of the propagation of a system change that indicates that the introduction of two or more changes over time can cause chaotic emergent behaviour.

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

Determining the specification of a control system from that of its environment

Well understood methods exist for developing programs from given specifications. A formal method identifies proof obligations at each development step: if all such proof obligations are discharged, a precisely defined class of errors can be excluded from the final program. For a class of closed systems such methods offer a gold standard against which less formal approaches can be measured. For open systems -those which interact with the physical world- the task of obtaining the program specification can be as challenging as the task of deriving the program. And, when a system of this class must tolerate certain kinds of unreliability in the physical world, it is still more challenging to reach confidence that the specification obtained is adequate. We argue that widening the notion of software development to include specifying the behaviour of the relevant parts of the physical world gives a way to derive the specification of a control system and also to record precisely the assumptions being made about the world outside the computer.