Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Injury and alcohol: a hospital emergency department study

A pilot survey was undertaken of injury presentations to a public hospital emergency department to determine patterns of alcohol use in this population. Of the 402 injury presentations in the study period, a total of 236 injury cases were interviewed, of whom 45% (n=107) and 29% (n=69) had consumed alcohol 24 and 6 hours prior to injury. Mean age for all injury presentations was 35.1 years, and 32.6 years for alcohol injury cases. For both injury groups, males were significantly younger than females. Recent alcohol ingestion was three times more common among male than female injury presentations, but with females drinking at significantly lower levels. Of males who had consumed alcohol 6 hours prior to injury, nearly 70% were drinking at NHMRC harmful levels and 61% had drunk more than eight standard drinks. Overall, alcohol-involved injury cases commonly occurred among low-income, single males around 30 years of age who were regular heavy drinkers who were drinking heavily in licensed premises prior to their injury, and who sustained injury through intentional harm. In addition, one in five of the alcohol-involved injury cases were aged 15-18 years, i.e. below the legal age of purchase. The high proportion of hazardous and harmful drinkers among those who had consumed alcohol within the last 6 hours, and the injury sample overall, highlights the need for further research to explore the relationship between the occurrence of injury and the drinking patterns and environments associated with injury. Further research is also required to assess the efficacy of early and brief interventions for alcohol and drug use within the emergency ward setting. This information would enable appropriate public health interventions to be initiated.

Estimating economic relationships subject to firm- and time-varying equality and inequality constraints

Applied econometricians often fail to impose economic regularity constraints in the exact form economic theory prescribes. We show how the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used to rigorously impose time- and firm-varying equality and inequality constraints. To illustrate the technique we estimate a system of translog input demand functions subject to all the constraints implied by economic theory, including observation-varying symmetry and concavity constraints. Results are presented in the form of characteristics of the estimated posterior distributions of functions of the parameters. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Conceptualising the virtual and the posthuman

This article aims to explore the relations between technology and the subject. With new media intensifying the provisionality of discursive structures and in turn embodied experiences, questions pertaining to virtuality have become vital, particularly since Western society's increasing reliance on technologies now permeates our everyday practices. While many theorists often resort to a reification of the subject when conceptualising the posthuman condition, this analysis will recover the notion of embodiment in order to avoid such technological determinism. Tracing this complexity in contemporary texts can be achieved through various means. Here, the focus will remain on how narrative frameworks can create new possibilities for understanding and interpreting shifting subjectivities in the digital age. To explore this, I shall provide an analysis of a contemporary film, Being John Malkovich, which has been chosen due to its unexpected success at the box office, indicating how finely attuned the film is to contemporary concerns.