The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Comparison of measured sleeping metabolic rate and predicted basal metabolic rate during the first year of life: evidence of a bias changing with increasing metabolic rate

Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: - 0.64 to - 0.28MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and - 0.39 to +0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive multiscale principal components analysis for online monitoring of wastewater treatment

Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

Calculation of resonances and product state distributions for the unimolecular dissociation of H2S

Resonance phenomena associated with the unimolecular dissociation of H2S --> SH + H have been investigated quantum mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization method using a newly developed potential energy surface (J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 320). Resonance energies, widths (rates), and product state distributions have been obtained. Both dissociation rates and product state distributions of SH show, strong fluctuations, indicating that the dissociation of H2S is essentially irregular. Statistical analysis of neighboring level spacing and width distributions also confirms this behavior. The dissociation rates and product state distributions are compared to the predictions of quantum phase space theory.

Application of spatial analysis techniques to adjust for fertility trends and identify interplot competition in early stage sugarcane selection trials

Most sugarcane breeding programs in Australia use large unreplicated trials to evaluate clones in the early stages of selection. Commercial varieties that are replicated provide a method of local control of soil fertility. Although such methods may be useful in detecting broad trends in the field, variation often occurs on a much smaller scale. Methods such as spatial analysis adjust a plot for variability by using information from immediate neighbours. These techniques are routinely used to analyse cereal data in Australia and have resulted in increased accuracy and precision in the estimates of variety effects. In this paper, spatial analyses in which the variability is decomposed into local, natural, and extraneous components are applied to early selection trials in sugarcane. Interplot competition in cane yield and trend in sugar content were substantial in many of the trials and there were often large differences in the selections between the spatial and current method used by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations. A joint modelling approach for tonnes sugar per hectare in response to fertility trends and interplot competition is recommended.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

In the last 7 years, a method has been developed to analyse building energy performance using computer simulation, in Brazil. The method combines analysis of building design plans and documentation, walk-through visits, electric and thermal measurements and the use of an energy simulation tool (DOE-2.1E code), The method was used to model more than 15 office buildings (more than 200 000 m(2)), located between 12.5degrees and 27.5degrees South latitude. The paper describes the basic methodology, with data for one building and presents additional results for other six cases. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Density functional theory analysis of the influence of pore wall heterogeneity on adsorption in carbons

Density functional theory for adsorption in carbons is adapted here to incorporate a random distribution of pore wall thickness in the solid, and it is shown that the mean pore wall thickness is intimately related to the pore size distribution characteristics. For typical carbons the pore walls are estimated to comprise only about two graphene layers, and application of the modified density functional theory approach shows that the commonly used assumption of infinitely thick walls can severely affect the results for adsorption in small pores under both supercritical and subcritical conditions. Under supercritical conditions the Henry's law coefficient is overpredicted by as much as a factor of 2, while under subcritical conditions pore wall heterogeneity appears to modify transitions in small pores into a sequence of smaller ones corresponding to pores with different wall thicknesses. The results suggest the need to improve current pore size distrubution analysis methods to allow for pore wall heterogeneity. The density functional theory is further extended here to allow for interpore adsorbate interactions, and it appears that these interaction are negligible for small molecules such as nitrogen but significant for more strongly interacting heavier molecules such as butane, for which the traditional independent pore model may not be adequate.

Mixed gas equilibrium adsorption on zeolites and energetic heterogeneity of adsorption volume

A model for binary mixture adsorption accounting for energetic heterogeneity and intermolecular interactions is proposed in this paper. The model is based on statistical thermodynamics, and it is able to describe molecular rearrangement of a mixture in a nonuniform adsorption field inside a cavity. The Helmholtz free energy obtained in the framework of this approach has upper and lower limits, which define a permissible range in which all possible solutions will be found. One limit corresponds to a completely chaotic distribution of molecules within a cavity, while the other corresponds to a maximum ordered molecular structure. Comparison of the nearly ideal O-2-N-2-zeolite NaX system at ambient temperature with the system Of O-2-N-2-zeolite CaX at 144 K has shown that a decrease of temperature leads to a molecular rearrangement in the cavity volume, which results from the difference in the fluid-solid interactions. The model is able to describe this behavior and therefore allows predicting mixture adsorption more accurately compared to those assuming energetic uniformity of the adsorption volume. Another feature of the model is its ability to correctly describe the negative deviations from Raoult's law exhibited by the O-2-N-2-CaX system at 144 K. Analysis of the highly nonideal CO2-C2H6-zeolite NaX system has shown that the spatial molecular rearrangement in separate cavities is induced by not only the ion-quadrupole interaction of the CO2 molecule but also the significant difference in molecular size and the difference between the intermolecular interactions of molecules of the same species and those of molecules of different species. This leads to the highly ordered structure of this system.

Analysis of adsorption data of graphitized thermal carbon black with a DFT-lattice gas theory

In this paper we analyzed the adsorption of gases and vapors on graphitised thermal carbon black by using a modified DFT-lattice theory, in which we assume that the behavior of the first layer in the adsorption film is different from those of second and higher layers. The effects of various parameters on the topology of the adsorption isotherm were first investigated, and the model was then applied in the analysis of adsorption data of numerous substances on carbon black. We have found that the first layer in the adsorption film behaves differently from the second and higher layers in such a way that the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction energy in the first layer is less than that of second and higher layers, and the same is observed for the partition function. Furthermore, the adsorbate-adsorbate and adsorbate-adsorbent interaction energies obtained from the fitting are consistently lower than the corresponding values obtained from the viscosity data and calculated from the Lorentz-Berthelot rule, respectively.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Applied physiology and game analysis of rugby union

Increased professionalism in rugby has elicited rapid changes in the fitness profile of elite players. Recent research, focusing on the physiological and anthropometrical characteristics of rugby players, and the demands of competition are reviewed. The paucity of research on contemporary elite rugby players is highlighted, along with the need for standardised testing protocols. Recent data reinforce the pronounced differences in the anthropometric and physical characteristics of the forwards and backs. Forwards are typically heavier, taller, and have a greater proportion of body fat than backs. These characteristics are changing, with forwards developing greater total mass and higher muscularity. The forwards demonstrate superior absolute aerobic and anaerobic power, and Muscular strength. Results favour the backs when body mass is taken into account. The scaling of results to body mass can be problematic and future investigations should present results using power function ratios. Recommended tests for elite players include body mass and skinfolds, vertical jump, speed, and the multi-stage shuttle run. Repeat sprint testing is a possible avenue for more specific evaluation of players. During competition, high-intensity efforts are often followed by periods of incomplete recovery. The total work over the duration of a game is lower in the backs compared with the forwards; forwards spend greater time in physical contact with the opposition while the backs spend more time in free running, allowing them to cover greater distances. The intense efforts undertaken by rugby players place considerable stress on anaerobic energy sources, while the aerobic system provides energy during repeated efforts and for recovery. Training should focus on repeated brief high-intensity efforts with short rest intervals to condition players to the demands of the game. Training for the forwards should emphasise the higher work rates of the game, while extended rest periods can be provided to the backs. Players should not only be prepared for the demands of competition, but also the stress of travel and extreme environmental conditions. The greater professionalism of rugby union has increased scientific research in the sport; however, there is scope for significant refinement of investigations on the physiological demands of the game, and sports-specific testing procedures.

Online titrimetric and off-gas analysis for examining nitrification processes in wastewater treatment

The two steps of nitrification, namely the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrite to nitrate, often need to be considered separately in process studies. For a detailed examination, it is desirable to monitor the two-step sequence using online measurements. In this paper, the use of online titrimetric and off-gas analysis (TOGA) methods for the examination of the process is presented. Using the known reaction stoichiometry, combination of the measured signals (rates of hydrogen ion production, oxygen uptake and carbon dioxide transfer) allows the determination of the three key process rates, namely the ammonia consumption rate, the nitrite accumulation rate and the nitrate production rate. Individual reaction rates determined with the TOGA sensor under a number of operation conditions are presented. The rates calculated directly from the measured signals are compared with those obtained from offline liquid sample analysis. Statistical analysis confirms that the results from the two approaches match well. This result could not have been guaranteed using alternative online methods. As a case study, the influences of pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) on nitrite accumulation are tested using the proposed method. It is shown that nitrite accumulation decreased with increasing DO and pH. Possible reasons for these observations are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rates of electronic energy transfer in conformationally flexible bichromophoric macrocyclic complexes: a combined experimental and molecular modeling study

Electronic energy transfer (EET) rate constants between a naphthalene donor and anthracene acceptor in [ZnL4a](ClO4)(2) and [ZnL4b](ClO4)(2) were determined by time-resolved fluorescence where L-4a and L-4b are the trans and cis isomers of 6-((anthracen-9-yl-methyl)amino)-6,13-dimethyl-13-((naphthalen-1-yl-methyl)amino)-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane, respectively. These isomers differ in the relative disposition of the appended chromophores with respect to the macrocyclic plane. The trans isomer has an energy transfer rate constant (k(EET)) of 8.7 x 10(8) s(-1), whereas that of the cis isomer is significantly faster (2.3 x 10(9) s(-1)). Molecular modeling was used to determine the likely distribution of conformations in CH3CN solution for these complexes in an attempt to identify any distance or orientation dependency that may account for the differing rate constants observed. The calculated conformational distributions together with analysis by H-1 NMR for the [ZnL4a](2+) trans complex in the common trans-III N-based isomer gave a calculated Forster rate constant close to that observed experimentally. For the [ZnL4b](2+) cis complex, the experimentally determined rate constant may be attributed to a combination of trans-Ill and trans-I N-based isomeric forms of the complex in solution.