An unbridgeable gap? Comparing the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Australia and sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE: To compare the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Australia and sub-Saharan Africa, to outline reasons for differences, and to consider implications for the Asia and Pacific region. METHODS: Comparison of key indicators of the epidemic in Australia, and Africa viewed largely through the experience of the Hlabisa health district, South Africa. RESULTS: To the end of 1997, for all Australia, the estimated cumulative number of HIV infections was approximately 19,000, whereas in Hlabisa 31,000 infections are estimated to have occurred. Compared with the low and declining incidence of HIV in Australia (<1%), estimated incidence in Hlabisa rose to 10% in 1997. In all, 94% of Australian infections have been amongst men; in Hlabisa equal numbers of males and females are infected. Consequently, whereas 3000 children were perinatally exposed to HIV in Hlabisa in 1998 alone, 160 Australian children have been exposed this way. In Australia, HIV-related disease is characterised by opportunistic infection whereas in Hlabisa tuberculosis and wasting dominate. Surveys among gay men in Sydney and Melbourne indicate >80% of HIV infected people receive antiretroviral therapy whereas in Hlabisa these drugs are not available. IMPLICATIONS: It seems possible that Asia and the Pacific will experience a similar HIV/AIDS epidemic to that in Africa. Levels of HIV are already high in parts of Asia, and social conditions in parts of the region might be considered ripe for the spread of HIV. As Australia strengthens economic and political ties within the region, so should more be done to help Pacific and Asian neighbours to prevent and respond to the HIV epidemic.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmentalizing economic development: a South Asian perspective

South Asia's pursuit of economic development has entailed considerable damage to and exposed the fragility of the physical environment of the region. This paper provides an analytical overview of the of the environmental problem that manifest themselves in South Asia in a comparative perspective with East and Southeast Asian countries as well as selected developed market economics. To date, South Asian development process has been environment-intensive and environment-depleting. It is argued that environmental problems are likely to set serious constraints to sustain growth in production to support a growing population. By exploring the relationship between indices of human welfare and bio-diversity conservation. the paper exposes the dichotomy of the development process. Finally, the study underscores the need for a range of policy options that rely both based and non-market based instruments in an integrated setting to enviromnentalize South Asian economic development. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Economic Incentives to Conserve Wildlife on Private Lands: Analysis and Policy

Some believe that provision of private property rights in wildlife on private land provides a powerful economic incentive for nature conservation because it enables property owners to market such wildlife or its attributes. If such marketing is profitable, private landholders will conserve the wildlife concerned and its required habitat. But land is not always most profitably used for exploitation of wildlife, and many economic values of wildlife (such as non-use economic values) cannot be marketed. The mobility of some wildlife adds to the limitations of the private-property approach. While some species may be conserved by this approach, it is suboptimal as a single policy approach to nature conservation. Nevertheless, it is being experimented with, in the Northern Territory of Australia where landholders had a possibility of harvesting on their properties a quota of eggs and chicks of red-tailed black cockatoos for commercial sale. This scheme was expected to provide an incentive to private landholders to retain hollow trees essential for the nesting of these birds but failed. This case and others are analysed. Despite private-property failures, the long-term survival of some wildlife species depends on their ability to use private lands without severe harassment, either for their migration or to supplement their available resources, for example, the Asian elephant. Nature conservation on private land is often a useful, if not essential, supplement to conservation on public lands. Community and public incentives for such conservation are outlined.

Mapping the emergence of heart disease in a black, urban population in Africa: The Heart of Soweto Study

Background: There is increasing evidence that many populations in the developing world are in epidemiologic transition with the subsequent emergence of more affluent disease states. The Heart of Soweto Study will systematically investigate the emergence of heart disease (HD) in a large urban population in South Africa. Methods: Part of the conurbation of Johannesburg, South Africa, Soweto is a predominantly Black African community of I million individuals. During an initial two year period, all individuals presenting to the local Baragwanath Hospital (3500 beds) with any form of HD will be studied. Demographic and diagnostic coding data in those with pre-established HD will form an abbreviated clinical registry of > 12,000 prevalent cases. Similarly, socio-demographic, clinical and diagnostic data (e.g. echocardiography and ECG) in newly diagnosed patients will form a more detailed clinical registry of > 5000 incident cases. Sub-studies of the relationship between HIV status and H D and the optimal management of chronic heart failure will also be performed. Results: These data will provide a unique insight into the causes and consequences of a broad spectrum of HD-related conditions in a developing world community in epidemiologic transition. Initially documented Population rates, in addition to detailed examinations of the underlying risk factors and causes of HD-related morbidity/mortality will provide an important platform for future stages of the study: a community-based, population screening program and culturally specific primary and secondary programs of care. Conclusion: There is an urgent need to systematically track the emergence of HD in the developing world. Initially involving more than 15,000 individuals, the unique Heart of Soweto Study has the potential to provide a wealth of information in this regard. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The systematics and biology of the south African gall-inducing scale insect, Calycicoccus merwei brain (Hemiptera : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

The scale insect genus Calycicoccus Brain has a single described species, C. merwei Brain, which is endemic to southeastern South Africa. Females of C. merwei induce small, mostly conical galls on the foliage of their host tree, Apodytes dimidiata E. Meyer ex Arn. (Icacinaceae), which has a wider, mostly coastal distribution, than that currently known for the scale insect. Calycicoccus has been placed in the family Eriococcidae and may be related to the South American genus Aculeococcus Lepage. No other native eriococcid species have been described so far in South Africa, although the family is diverse in other Gondwanan regions. This paper summarizes the biology of C. merwei, redescribes the adult female, describes the adult male, the second-instar female and the first-instar nymphs for the first time, and reconsiders the phylogenetic relationships of the genus. The adult female is shown to have unusual abdominal segmentation, in that segment I is present both dorsally and ventrally, but a segment is absent ventrally on the middle abdomen. First-instar nymphs are sexually dimorphic; males have a larger and relatively narrower body, larger mouthparts, longer antennae and legs, and more thoracic dorsal setae compared with females. Molecular data from nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA (18S) and elongation factor 1 alpha (EF-1a) show C. merwei to have no close relatives among the Eriococcidae sampled to date. Instead, the Calycicoccus lineage is part of a polytomy near the base of the Eriococcidae. Molecular dating of the node suggests that the Calycicoccus lineage diverged from other eriococcids more than 100 Mya. These data support the placement of Calycicoccus as the only genus in the subfamily Calycicoccinae Brain.

Ecological criteria for evaluating candidate sites for marine reserves

Several schemes have been developed to help select the locations of marine reserves. All of them combine social, economic, and biological criteria, and few offer any guidance as to how to prioritize among the criteria identified. This can imply that the relative weights given to different criteria are unimportant. Where two sites are of equal value ecologically; then socioeconomic criteria should dominate the choice of which should be protected. However, in many cases, socioeconomic criteria are given equal or greater weight than ecological considerations in the choice of sites. This can lead to selection of reserves with little biological value that fail to meet many of the desired objectives. To avoid such a possibility, we develop a series of criteria that allow preliminary evaluation of candidate sites according to their relative biological values in advance of the application of socioeconomic criteria. We include criteria that,. while not strictly biological, have a strong influence on the species present or ecological processes. Out scheme enables sites to be assessed according to their biodiversity, the processes which underpin that diversity, and the processes that support fisheries and provide a spectrum of other services important to people. Criteria that capture biodiversity values include biogeographic representation, habitat representation and heterogeneity, and presence of species or populations of special interest (e.g., threatened species). Criteria that capture sustainability of biodiversity and fishery values include the size of reserves necessary to protect viable habitats, presence of exploitable species, vulnerable life stages, connectivity among reserves, links among ecosystems, and provision of ecosystem services to people. Criteria measuring human and natural threats enable candidate sites to be eliminated from consideration if risks are too great, but also help prioritize among sites where threats can be mitigated by protection. While our criteria can be applied to the design of reserve networks, they also enable choice of single reserves to be made in the context of the attributes of existing protected areas. The overall goal of our scheme is to promote the development of reserve networks that will maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning at large scales. The values of eco-system goods and services for people ultimately depend on meeting this objective.

The performance of South African English first language child speakers on a "low linguistically loaded" central auditory processing test protocol

The lack of standardized tests of central auditory processing disorder (CAPD) in South Africa (SA) led to the formation of a SA CAPD Taskforce, and the interim development of a "low linguistically loaded" CAPD test protocol using test recordings from the 'Tonal and Speech Materials for Auditory Perceptual Assessment Disc 2.0'. This study inferentially compared the performance of 16 SA English first, and 16 SA English second, language adult speakers on this test protocol, and descriptively compared their performances to previously published American normative data. Comparisons between the SA English first and second language speakers showed a poorer right ear performance (p < .05) by the second language speakers on the two-pair dichotic digits test only. Equivalent performances (p < .05) were observed on the left ear performance on the two pair dichotic digits test, and the frequency patterns test, the duration patterns test, the low-pass filtered speech test, the 45% time compressed speech test, the speech masking level difference test, and the consonant vowel consonant (CVC) binaural fusion test. Comparisons between the SA English and the American normative data showed many large differences (up to 37.1% with respect to predicted pass criteria as calculated by mean-2SD cutoffs), with the SA English speakers performing both better and worse depending on the test involved. As a result, the American normative data was not considered appropriate for immediate use as normative data in SA. Instead, the preliminary data provided in this study was recommended as interim normative data for both SA English first and second language adult speakers, until larger scale SA normative data can be obtained.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development

Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A trace element study of siderite-jasper banded iron formation in the 3.45 Ga Warrawoona Group, Pilbara Craton - Formation from hydrothermal fluids and shallow seawater

Shale-normalised rare earth element and yttrium (REE + Y) patterns for siderite-jasper couples in a banded iron formation of the 3.45 Ga Panorama Formation, Warrawoona Group, eastern Pilbara Craton, display distinct positive Y and Eu anomalies and weak positive La and Gd anomalies, combined with depleted light REE relative to middle and heavy REE. Ambient seawater and hydrothermal fluids are identified as major sources of REE + Y for the BIF. In the case of siderites, strong correlations between incompatible trace elements and trace element ratios diagnostic of seawater indicate variable input from a terrigenous source (e.g. volcanic ash). We propose a volcanic caldera setting as a likely depositional environment where jasper and siderite precipitated as alternating bands in response to episodic changes in ambient water chemistry. The episodicity was either driven by fluctuations in the intensity of hydrothermal activity or changes in magma chamber activity, which in turn controlled relative sea level. In this context, precipitation of jasper probably reflects background conditions during which seawater was saturated in silica due to evaporative conditions, while siderites were deposited most likely during intermittent periods of enhanced volcanic activity when seawater was more acidic due to the release of exhalative phases (e.g. CO2). © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

K-Ar and 40Ar/39Ar ages of dikes emplaced in the onshore basement of the Santos Basin, Resende area, SE Brazil: implications for the South Atlantic opening and tertiary reactivation

New K-Ar and Ar-40/Ar-39 data of tholeiitic and alkaline dike swarms from the onshore basement of the Santos Basin (SE Brazil) reveal Mesozoic and Tertiary magmatic pulses. The tholeiitic rocks (basalt, dolerite, and microgabbro) display high TiO2 contents (average 3.65 wt%) and comprise two magmatic groups. The NW-oriented samples of Group A have (La/Yb)N ratios between 15 and 32.3 and range in age from 192.9 +/- 2.2 to 160.9 +/- 1.9 Ma. The NNW-NNE Group B samples, with (La/Yb)(N) ratios between 7 and 16, range from 148.3 +/- 3 to 133.9 +/- 0.5 Ma. The alkaline rocks (syenite, trachyte, phonolite, alkaline basalts, and lamprophyre) display intermediate-K contents and comprise dikes, plugs, and stocks. Ages of approximately 82 Ma were obtained for the lamprophyre dikes, 70 Ma for the syenite plutons, and 64-59 Ma for felsic dikes. Because Jurassic-Early Cretaceous basic dikes have not been reported in SE Brazil, we might speculate that, during the emplacement of Group A dikes, extensional stresses were active in the region before the opening of the south Atlantic Ocean and coeval with the Karoo magmatism described in South Africa. Group B dikes yield ages compatible with those obtained for Serra Geral and Ponta Grossa magmatism in the Parana Basin and are directly related to the breakup of western Gondwana. Alkaline magmatism is associated with several tectonic episodes that postdate the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and related to the upwelling of the Trindade plume and the generation of Tertiary basins southeast of Brazil. In the studied region, alkaline magmatism can be subdivided in two episodes: the first one represented by lamprophyre dykes of approximately 82 Ma and the second comprised of felsic alkaline stocks of approximately 70 Ma and associated dikes ranging from 64 to 59 Ma. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.