Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk in California

Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.

Limited ecoclinal variation found in Malva parviflora (small-flowered mallow) across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia

Malva parviflora L. populations were collected from 24 locations across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia and grown in Perth in a common garden experiment. Seventeen morphometric and taxonomic measurements were taken and genetic variation was investigated by performing principal components analysis (PCA). Taxonomic measurements confirmed that all plants used in the study were M. parviflora. Greater variation occurred within populations than between populations. Separation between populations was only evident between northern and southern populations along principal components 2 (PC2), which was due mainly to flowering time. Flowering time and consequently photoperiod were highly correlated with latitude and regression analysis revealed a close relationship (r(2) = 0.6). Additionally, the pollination system of M. parviflora was examined. Plants were able to self-pollinate without the need for external vectors and the pollen ovule ratio (31 +/- 1.3) revealed that M. parviflora is most likely to be an obligate inbreeder with a slight potential for outcrossing. The limited variation of M. parviflora enhances the likelihood of suitable control strategies being effective across a broad area.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

Synthesis of fructans by partially purified fructosyltransferase activities from Lolium rigidum

Sucrose:sucrose fructosyltransferase (SST) activity was partially purified from whole shoots of Lolium rigidum by a combination of affinity chromatography, gel filtration and anion-exchange chromatography. The SST activity co-eluted with some fructan:fructan fructosyltransferase (FFT) and invertase activities and consequently the partially purified preparation was termed the fructosyltransferase (FT) preparation. The SST-like activity in the FT preparation was purified 214-fold and had an apparent molecular mass of 84 000. The FT preparation contained several peptides with an apparent pI of 4.6-4.7. When assayed with sucrose concentrations up to 600 mM, the FT preparation synthesized 1-kestose at all concentrations, and synthesized 6-kestose at concentrations of 150 mM and greater. The K-m of 1-kestose production was 0.2 M. When the FT preparation was assayed at a concentration of activity approximately half that measured in fresh tissue with 100 mM sucrose, 1-kestose, or 6(G)-kestose as substrates, fructans of degree of polymerization (DP) less than or equal to 5 were synthesized. A partially purified FFT activity, free of SST and invertase activities, which synthesized beta-2,1-glycosidic linked oligofructans of DP less than or equal to 6, was combined in vitro with the FT preparation (FFT-FT preparation) to give a ratio of SST:FFT activities similar to that measured in crude enzyme extracts from L. rigidum. The FFT-FT preparation synthesized oligofructans when assayed with 100 mM concentrations of sucrose, 1-kestose or 6(G)-kestose, but was not able to synthesize fructans of DP greater than or equal to 6 even after extended assays of up to 10 h. The FFT-FT preparation was also assayed with 100 mM sucrose with small amounts of concentrated sucrose added periodically during the assay to maintain the substrate concentration. In this assay, the FFT-FT preparation synthesized fructans up to an apparent DP of 17 or greater. The fructans of DP greater than or equal to 6 synthesized in the assay appeared to form two molecular series containing both beta-2,1- and beta-2,6-glycosidic linked fructosyl residues with terminal or internal glucosyl residues. The apparent rate of SST activity in the assay of the FFT-FT preparation was greater than that measured in a similar assay of the FT preparation alone which did not result in fructans with DP greater than or equal to 6. It was concluded that the FFT-FT preparation, when assayed with a continual supply of sucrose, contained a factor which promoted synthesis of fructans of DP greater than or equal to 6 and synthesis of beta-2,B-glycosidic linkages between fructosyl residues.

Estimating Investment Risk in Small-Scale Plantation Rainforest Cabinet Timbers and Eucalypts

‘This book is a landmark opening and first attempt at such a process for defining farm forestry, as well as making a contribution to small-scale forestry.’