Parallel 3D Simulation of a Fault Gouge using the Lattice Solid Model

Despite the insight gained from 2-D particle models, and given that the dynamics of crustal faults occur in 3-D space, the question remains, how do the 3-D fault gouge dynamics differ from those in 2-D? Traditionally, 2-D modeling has been preferred over 3-D simulations because of the computational cost of solving 3-D problems. However, modern high performance computing architectures, combined with a parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model (LSM), provide the opportunity to explore 3-D fault micro-mechanics and to advance understanding of effective constitutive relations of fault gouge layers. In this paper, macroscopic friction values from 2-D and 3-D LSM simulations, performed on an SGI Altix 3700 super-cluster, are compared. Two rectangular elastic blocks of bonded particles, with a rough fault plane and separated by a region of randomly sized non-bonded gouge particles, are sheared in opposite directions by normally-loaded driving plates. The results demonstrate that the gouge particles in the 3-D models undergo significant out-of-plane motion during shear. The 3-D models also exhibit a higher mean macroscopic friction than the 2-D models for varying values of interparticle friction. 2-D LSM gouge models have previously been shown to exhibit accelerating energy release in simulated earthquake cycles, supporting the Critical Point hypothesis. The 3-D models are shown to also display accelerating energy release, and good fits of power law time-to-failure functions to the cumulative energy release are obtained.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.