Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

The effective management of geological risk in long-term production scheduling of open pit mines

Investment in mining projects, like most business investment, is susceptible to risk and uncertainty. The ability to effectively identify, assess and manage risk may enable strategic investments to be sheltered and operations to perform closer to their potential. In mining, geological uncertainty is seen as the major contributor to not meeting project expectations. The need to assess and manage geological risk for project valuation and decision-making translates to the need to assess and manage risk in any pertinent parameter of open pit design and production scheduling. This is achieved by taking geological uncertainty into account in the mine optimisation process. This thesis develops methods that enable geological uncertainty to be effectively modelled and the resulting risk in long-term production scheduling to be quantified and managed. One of the main accomplishments of this thesis is the development of a new, risk-based method for the optimisation of long-term production scheduling. In addition to maximising economic returns, the new method minimises the risk of deviating from production forecasts, given the understanding of the orebody. This ability represents a major advance in the risk management of open pit mining.

Effects of short- and long-term exposure to c-AMP and c-GMP on the noradrenaline transporter

The effects of short- and long-term exposure of cells to elevated cyclic adenosine monophosphate (c-AMP), using dibutyryl-c-AMP, 8-bromo-c-AMP, cholera toxin or forskolin, or cyclic guanosine monophosphate (c-GMP), using dibutyryl-c-GMP or 8-bromo-c-GMP, on the activity and expression of the noradrenaline transporter (NAT) were examined. Short- or long-term c-GMP elevation had no effects on H-3-noradrenaline uptake by rat PC12 phaeochromocytoma cells or human SK-N-SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells. Short-term c-AMP elevation (for 17 min experiment duration) caused a decrease in H-3-noradrenaline uptake by PC12 cells, but had no effects on SK-N-SH-SY5Y cells or COS-7 cells transfected with human or rat NAT cDNA. c-AMP did not affect H-3-nisoxetine binding to PC12 cells. Long-term (24 h) exposure to elevated c-AMP levels caused a decrease in H-3-noradrenaline uptake and NAT mRNA in PC12 cells, but had no effects on SK-N-SH-SY5Y cells and caused a small increase in H-3-noradrenaline uptake in COS-7 cells heterologously expressing rat or human NAT. Hence, c-AMP, but not c-GMP, causes a cell type-dependent reduction in NAT activity after short-term exposure and a reduction in NAT expression after long-term exposure. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Effects of Specific Stabilizing Exercises for First-Episode Low Back Pain

Study Design. A randomized clinical trial with 1-year and 3-year telephone questionnaire follow-ups. Objective. To report a specific exercise intervention’s long-term effects on recurrence rates in acute, first-episode low back pain patients. Summary of Background Data. The pain and disability associated with an initial episode of acute low back pain (LBP) is known to resolve spontaneously in the short-term in the majority of cases. However, the recurrence rate is high, and recurrent disabling episodes remain one of the most costly problems in LBP. A deficit in the multifidus muscle has been identified in acute LBP patients, and does not resolve spontaneously on resolution of painful symptoms and resumption of normal activity. Any relation between this deficit and recurrence rate was investigated in the long-term. Methods. Thirty-nine patients with acute, first-episode LBP were medically managed and randomly allocated to either a control group or specific exercise group. Medical management included advice and use of medications. Intervention consisted of exercises aimed at rehabilitating the multifidus in cocontraction with the transversus abdominis muscle. One year and three years after treatment, telephone questionnaires were conducted with patients. Results. Questionnaire results revealed that patients from the specific exercise group experienced fewer recurrences of LBP than patients from the control group. One year after treatment, specific exercise group recurrence was 30%, and control group recurrence was 84% (P , 0.001). Two to three years after treatment, specific exercise group recurrence was 35%, and control group recurrence was 75% (P , 0.01). Conclusion. Long-term results suggest that specific exercise therapy in addition to medical management and resumption of normal activity may be more effective in reducing low back pain recurrences than medical management and normal activity alone. [Key Words: multifidus, low back pain, rehabilitation]