Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in cigarette smoking in 36 populations from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s: Findings from the WHO MONICA Project

Objectives. This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease). Methods. Over 300 000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations. Results. For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed. Conclusions. These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.

A molecular comparison of T lymphocyte populations infiltrating the liver and circulating in the blood of patients with chronic hepatitis B: Evidence for antigen-driven selection of a public complementarity-determining region 3 (CDR3) motif

Despite a large number of T cells infiltrating the liver of patients with chronic hepatitis B, little is known about their complexity or specificity. To characterize the composition of these T cells involved with the pathogenesis of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), we have studied the clonality of V beta T cell receptor (TCR)-bearing populations in liver tissue by size spectratyping the complementarity-determining region (CDR3) lengths of TCR transcripts. We have also compared the CDR3 profiles of the lymphocytes infiltrating the liver with those circulating in the blood to see whether identical clonotypes may be detected that would indicate a virus-induced expansion in both compartments. Our studies show that in most of the patients examined, the T cell composition of liver infiltrating lymphocytes is highly restricted, with evidence of clonotypic expansions in 4 to 9 TCR V beta subfamilies. In contrast, the blood compartment contains an average of 1 to 3 expansions. This pattern is seen irrespective of the patient's viral load or degree of liver pathology. Although the TCR repertoire profiles between the 2 compartments are generally distinct, there is evidence of some T cell subsets being equally distributed between the blood and the liver. Finally, we provide evidence for a putative public binding motif within the CDR3 region with the sequence G-X-S, which may be involved with hepatitis B virus recognition.

Stenotherms at sub-zero temperatures: thermal dependence of swimming performance in Antarctic fish

We examined the burst swimming performance of two Antarctic fishes, Trematomus bernacchii and T. centronotus, at five temperatures between -1 degreesC and 10 degreesC. As Antarctic fishes are considered one of the most cold specialised and stenothermal of all ectotherms, we predicted they would possess a narrow thermal performance breadth for burst swimming and a correlative decrease in performance at high temperatures. Burst swimming was assessed by videotaping swimming sequences with a 50-Hz video camera and analysing the sequences frame-by-frame to determine maximum velocity, the distance moved throughout the initial 200 ms, and the time taken to reach maximum velocity. In contrast to our prediction, we found both species possessed a wide thermal performance breadth for burst swimming. Although maximum swimming velocity for both T. bernacchii and T. centronotus was significantly highest at 6 degreesC, maximum velocity at ah other test temperatures was less than 20% lower. Thus, it appears that specialisation to a highly stable and cold environment is not necessarily associated with a narrow thermal performance breadth for burst swimming in Antarctic fish. We also examined the ability of the Antarctic fish Pagothenia borchgrevinki to acclimate their burst-swimming performance to different temperatures. We exposed P, borchgrevinki to either -1 degreesC or 4 degreesC for 4 weeks and tested their burst-swimming performance at four temperatures between -1 degreesC and 10 degreesC. Burst-swimming performance of Pagothenia borchgrevinki was unaffected by exposure to either -1 degreesC or 4 degreesC for 4 weeks. Maximum swimming velocity of both acclimation groups was thermally independent over the total temperature range of -1 degreesC to 10 degreesC. Therefore, the loss of any capacity to restructure the phenotype and an inability to thermally acclimate swimming performance appears to be associated with inhabiting a highly stable thermal environment.

Antibody levels to the class I and II epitopes of the M protein and myosin are related to group A streptococcal exposure in endemic populations

Rheumatic fever (RF)/rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis are thought to be autoimmune diseases, and follow group A streptococcal (GAS) infection. Different GAS M types have been associated with rheumatogenicity or nephritogenicity and categorized into either of two distinct classes (I or II) based on amino acid sequences present within the repeat region ('C' repeats) of the M protein. Sera from ARF patients have previously been shown to contain elevated levels of antibodies to the class I-specific epitope and myosin with the class I-specific antibodies also being cross-reactive to myosin, suggesting a disease association. This study shows that immunoreactivity of the class I-specific peptide and myosin does not differ between controls and acute RF (ARF)/RHD in populations that are highly endemic for GAS, raising the possibility that the association is related to GAS exposure, not the presence of ARF/RHD. Peptide inhibition studies suggest that the class I epitope may be conformational and residue 10 of the peptide is critical for antibody binding. We demonstrate that correlation of antibody levels between the class I and II epitope is due to class II-specific antibodies recognizing a common epitope with class I which is contained within the sequence RDL-ASRE. Our results suggest that antibody prevalence to class I and II epitopes and myosin is associated with GAS exposure, and that antibodies to these epitopes are not an indicator of disease nor a pathogenic factor in endemic populations.

How different is Mediterranean Caulerpa taxifolia (Caulerpales : Chlorophyta) to other populations of the species?

The green macroalgal species Caulerpa taxifolia is indigenous to tropical/subtropical Australia, ranging as far south as 28degrees and 29degrees 15' S on the Australian mainland east and west coasts, respectively. The origin of disjunct populations of the species, discovered in 2000 on the Australian mainland east coast at localities to 35degrees S remains unknown, variously attributed to introduced exotic strains or range extensions from other eastern Australian populations. Some naturally occurring Australian populations of C. taxifolia are similar to Mediterranean C. taxifolia. In Australia, large broad forms of the species, which have been known in the region since 1860, grow luxuriantly in sheltered seagrass meadows, with some of these populations tolerating minimum surface seawater temperatures in winter of 12.5 to 14.5degreesC. Accordingly, the contention that the Mediterranean has been invaded by a genetically-modified, large, cold-adapted strain of C. taxifolia may be incorrect. It is crucial that genetic markers (DNA fingerprinting, microsatellites) sensitive at the population level are used to accurately determine the genetic relatedness of C. taxifolia populations.

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in eastern Australia are threatened by land clearing for agricultural and urban development. At the same time, conservation efforts are hindered by a dearth of information about inland populations. Faecal deposits offer a source of information that is readily available and easily collected non-invasively. We detail a faecal pellet sampling protocol that was developed for use in a large rangeland biogeographic region. The method samples trees in belt transects, uses a thorough search at the tree base to quickly identify trees with koala pellets under them, then estimates the abundance of faecal pellets under those trees using 1-m(2) quadrats. There was a strong linear relationship between these estimates and a complete enumeration of pellet abundance under the same trees. We evaluated the accuracy of our method in detecting trees where pellets were present by means of a misclassification index that was weighed more heavily for missed trees that had high numbers of pellets under them. This showed acceptable accuracy in all landforms except riverine, where some trees with large numbers of pellets were missed. Here, accuracy in detecting pellet presence was improved by sampling with quadrats, rather than basal searches. Finally, we developed a method to reliably age pellets and demonstrate how this protocol could be used with the faecal-standing-crop method to derive a regional estimate of absolute koala abundance.

Breeding dynamics of koalas in open woodlands

The spatial and breeding dynamics of koalas in sub-tropical woodlands at Blair Athol in central Queensland were intensively monitored between 1993 and 1998. Genetic relationships among koalas at this locality were studied to determine the breeding dynamics of males, including whether 'resident' or 'transient' males dominate as sires. Males and females were radio-collared and tracked periodically throughout each year of the study. Genotypes from hypervariable microsatellite loci identified uniquely all individuals and were used to analyse parentage as well as to determine population genetic parameters when compared with other regional localities. Koalas at Blair Athol comprise a population in genetic equilibrium. Gene diversity estimates show the population to be similar to other populations found in similar habitat in the region, and estimates of genetic differentiation among four regional populations showed that gene flow conforms to a model of isolation by distance. Analysis of parentage found that both resident and transient males sired about equal numbers of offspring. Familial DNA analysis revealed multiple paternities of successive young in this population. The conclusion from this study is that 'resident' status among males does not confer any advantage for parentage.

Sub-structure syntheses and relative stereochemistry in the bistramide (bistratene) series of marine metabolites

The (6R*,9S*,11S*) and (22S*,23R*,27R*,31R*) stereochemistry, respectively, of the tetrahydropyranyl and spiroacetal moieties in bistramide A (1) have been established by stereoselective syntheses and high field NMR comparisons. Routes to the gamma-amino acid moiety are outlined. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic differentiation between Australian and North American populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae): an exploration using allozyme electrophoresis

Allozyme analysis was used to address the question of the source of the Australian populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.). The study had three major aims: (1) To compare the levels of diversity of Australian and Hawaiian populations with potential source populations. (2) To determine whether eastern and western North American populations were sufficiently divergent for the Australian populations to be aligned to a source population. (3) To compare the differentiation among regions in Australia and North America to test the prediction of greater genetic structure in Australia, as a consequence of reduced migratory behaviour. The reverse was found, with F-ST values an order of magnitude lower in Australia than in North America. Predictably, Australian and Hawaiian populations had lower allelic diversity, but unexpected higher heterozygosity values than North American populations. It was not possible to assign the Australian populations to a definitive source, although the high levels of similarity of Australian populations to each other suggest a single colonization event. The possibility that the Australian populations have not been here long enough to reach equilibrium is discussed. (C) 2002 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2002, 75, 437-452.

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.