Population-based mammography screening and breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia

To analyse breast cancer incidence trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to population-based mammography screening targeting women aged 50 to 69 years. Trends in age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancers in NSW women aged >= 40 years were examined in relation to mammography screening rates and screening cancer detection rates. Incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW women increased in all age-groups over 1972 to 2002. The incidence trend for women aged 50 to 69 years showed that the steepest rise was associated with increased participation in population-based mammography screening, which was implemented from 1988 and achieved state-wide coverage in 1995. The elevated incidence of invasive cancer significantly exceeded pre-screening levels, and persisted after rates of initial screens declined. This elevated incidence was sustained by the contribution of cancers diagnosed through subsequent screening, and resulted from increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screens. The recent increase in invasive breast cancer incidence in NSW is associated with mammography screening, and occurred mostly in the target age-group women. Persistence of higher incidence after 1994 was not explicable by inflation of cancer incidence due to detection of prevalent screen cases, but was associated with a trend of increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screening rounds, probably consequent to quality improvements in mammography screening diagnosis.

Declining rates of coronary heart disease in New Zealand and Australia, 1983-1993

The authors report the results of 10 years of monitoring of trends in the rates of major nonfatal and fatal coronary events and in case fatality in Auckland, New Zealand, and in Newcastle and Perth, Australia. Continuous surveillance of all suspected myocardial infarctions and coronary deaths in people aged 35-64 years was undertaken in the three centers as part of the World Health Organization's Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project, For nonfatal definite myocardial infarction, there were statistically significant declines in rates in all centers in both men and women, with estimated average changes between 2.5% and 3.7% per year during the period 1984-1993, Rates of all coronary deaths also declined significantly in all three populations for both men and women. In absolute terms, there was, in general, a greater reduction in prehospital deaths than in deaths after hospitalization. Although 28-day case fatality remains high at between 35% and 50%, in the Australian centers it declined significantly by between 1.0% and 2.9% per year, and in Auckland there was also a small decline, However, since most deaths occur outside the hospital in people without a previous history of coronary heart disease, an increased emphasis on primary prevention is necessary.

Relationship between use of technology and employment rates for people with physical disabilities in Australia: Implications for education and training programmes

This study examined the impact of computer and assistive device use on the employment status and vocational modes of people with physical disabilities in Australia. A survey was distributed to people over 15 years in age with physical disabilities living in the Brisbane area. Responses were received from 82 people, including those with spinal cord injuries, cerebral palsy and muscular dystrophy. Of respondents 46 were employed, 22 were unemployed, and 12 were either students or undertaking voluntary work. Three-quarters of respondents used a computer in their occupations, while 15 used assistive devices. Using logistic regression analysis it was found that gender, education, level of computer skill and computer training were significant predictors of employment outcomes. Neither the age of respondent nor use of assistive software were significant predictors. From information obtained in this study guidelines for a training programme designed to maximize the employability of people with physical disabilities were developed.

The recent Australian debate about the prohibition on cannabis use

This paper outlines the ethical arguments used in the Australian debate about whether or not to relax the prohibition on cannabis use by adults. Over the past two decades a rising prevalence of cannabis use in the Australian population has led to proposals for the decriminalization of the personal use of cannabis. Three states and territories have removed criminal penalties for personal use while criminal penalties are rarefy imposed in the remaining states. Libertarian arguments for legalization of cannabis use have attracted a great deal of media interest but very little public and political support. Other arguments in favour of decriminalization have attracted more support. One has been the utilitarian argument that prohibition has failed to deter cannabis use and the social costs of its continuation outweigh any benefits that it produces. Another has been the argument from hypocrisy that cannabis is less harmful than alcohol and so, on the grounds of consistency, if alcohol is legally available then so should cannabis. To date public opinion has not favoured legalization, although support for the decriminalization of personal cannabis use has increased. In the long term, the outcome of the debate may depend more upon trends in cannabis use and social attitudes among young adults than upon the persuasiveness of the arguments for a relaxation of the prohibition of cannabis.

Gender inequality, poverty and human development in Kenya: Main indicators, trends and limitations

Indicators of gender inequality, poverty and human development in Kenya are examined. Significant and rising incidence of absolute poverty occurs in Kenya and women are more likely to be in poverty than men. Female/male ratios in Kenyan decision-making institutions are highly skewed against women and they experience unfavourable enrolment ratios in primary, secondary and tertiary institutions. The share of income earned by women is much lower than men's share. General Kenyan indicators highlight declining GDP per capita, increased poverty rates especially for women, reduced life expectancy, a narrowing of the difference in female/male life expectancy rates, increased child mortality rates and an increase in the female child mortality rates. This deterioration results in an increased socio-economic burden on women, not adequately captured in the HPI, HDI, GDI and GEM. This paper advocates the use of household level gender disaggregated data because much gender inequality occurs in and emanates from the household level where culture plays a very important role in allocation of resources and decision-making. Because most human development indicators are aggregates or averages, they can be misleading. They need to be supplemented by distributional and disaggregated data as demonstrated in the Kenyan case. The importance is emphasised of studying coping mechanisms of household/families for dealing with economic hardship and other misfortunes, such AIDS.

On the decay rates of buffers in continuous flow lines

Consider a tandem system of machines separated by infinitely large buffers. The machines process a continuous flow of products, possibly at different speeds. The life and repair times of the machines are assumed to be exponential. We claim that the overflow probability of each buffer has an exponential decay, and provide an algorithm to determine the exact decay rates in terms of the speeds and the failure and repair rates of the machines. These decay rates provide useful qualitative insight into the behavior of the flow line. In the derivation of the algorithm we use the theory of Large Deviations.

Childhood poisoning in Queensland: An analysis of presentation and admission rates

Objective: To determine the presentation rates for paediatric poisoning by ingestion and the determinants of hospital admission. Methodology: Cross-sectional survey using an injury surveillance database from emergency departments in South Brisbane, Mackay and Mt Isa, Queensland, from January 1998 to December 1999. There were 1516 children aged 0-14 years who presented following ingestional poisoning. Results: The presentation rates for poisoning were 690, 40 and 67 per 100 000 population aged 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years, respectively. The admission rates to hospital for poisoning were 144, 14 and 22 per 100 000 population aged 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years, respectively. Although presentation rates for poisoning were higher in the rural centres the admission rates were disproportionately high for the 0-4 years age group. The agents most frequently ingested were paracetamol, Dimetapp(R), rodenticides and essential oils. Conclusion: There is a need to design and implement interventions aimed at reducing poison exposures and unnecessary hospital admissions in the 0-4 years age group.

Mutation rates in the dihydrofolate reductase gene of Plasmodium falciparum

A new method has been established to define the limits on a spontaneous mutation rate for a gene in Plasmodium falciparum. The method combines mathematical modelling and large-scale in vitro culturing and calculates the difference in mutant frequencies at 2 separate time-points. We measured the mutation rate at 2 positions in the dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) gene of 3D7, a pyrimethamine-sensitive line of P. fulciparum. This line was re-cloned and an effectively large population was treated with a selective pyrimethamine concentration of 40 nM. We detected point mutations at codon-46 (TTA to TCA) and codon-108 (ACC to AAC), resulting in serine replacing leucine and asparagine replacing serine respectively in the corresponding gene product. The substitutions caused a decrease in pyrimethamine sensitivity. By mathematical modelling we determined that the mutation rate at a given position in DHFR was low and occurred at less than 2(.)5 x 10(-9) mutations/DHFR gene/replication. This result has important implications for Plasmodium genetic diversity and antimalarial drug therapy by demonstrating that even with lon mutation rates anti-malarial resistance will inevitably arise when mutant alleles are selected under drug pressure.

Australia, the United States and a 'China growing strong': managing conflict avoidance

How to deal with a rising China constitutes one of the most seminal challenges facing the ANZUS alliance since its inception a half a century ago. Australia must reconcile its geography and economic interests in Asia with its post-war strategic and historic cultural orientation towards the United States. It must succeed in this policy task without alienating either Beijing or Washington in the process. The extent to which this is achieved will shape Australia's national security posture for decades to come. Three specific components of the 'Sino-American-Australian' triangle are assessed here: the future of Taiwan, the American development of a National Missile Defence (NMD), and the interplay between Sino-American power balancing and multilateral security politics. The policy stakes for Australia and for the continued viability of ANZUS are high in all three policy areas as a new US Administration takes office in early 2001. The article concludes that Australia's best interest is served by applying deliberate modes of decisionmaking in its own relations with both China and the US and by facilitating consistent and systematic dialogue and consultations with both of those great powers on key strategic issues.