Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the World Wide Web to revolutionise technology transfer and training in the water and wastewater industries

Industry professionals of the near future will be supported by an IT infrastructure that enables them to complete a task by drawing on resources and people with expertise anywhere in the world, and access to knowledge through specific training programs that address the task requirements. The increasing uptake of new technologies enables information to reach a diverse population and to provide flexible learning environments 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. This paper examines one of the key areas where the World Wide Web will impact on the water and wastewater industries, namely technology transfer and training. The authors will present their experiences of developing online training courses for wastewater industry professionals over the last two years. The perspective is that of two people working at the coalface.

Effect of restricted feed intake on early reproductive development in Large White gilts

Forty-five Large White gilts were used to study the effect of energy intake from 28 to 176 d of age on body composition and reproductive development. From 28 to 60 d, the gilts were fed ad libitum a 16.6 MJ DE/kg, 24% crude protein and 1.3% total lysine diet. From 61 d of age three dietary treatments were used; 1) ad libitum access to feed (15.6 MJ DE/kg, 21% crude protein and 1.07% total lysine) (H), 2) feed offered at 75% (M) of the previous days intake of H, and 3) feed offered at 60% (L) of the previous days intake of H. ADG from 61 to 176 d of age was (p <0.05) affected by treatment. Although live weight at 176 d of age did not differ (p >0.1) the H gilts had higher (p <0.08) carcass weights than the M or L gilts. Back fat depths were similar (p >0.1) for all treatments at 115 d of age, however by 176 d of age M and H gilts were fatter (p <0.1) than L gilts. The mean lipid deposition (LD) from 115 to 176 d of age for L gilts (78.9 g/d) was less (p <0.05) than for M gilts (143.6 g/d) and H gilts (135.6 g/d). There were no differences between treatments for protein deposition (PD) over the same period. More (p <0.05) H gilts (n=8) attained puberty (first observed estrus) than either M gilts or L gilts (n=4 for both). Follicle numbers were similar (p >0.1) across treatments. For gilts that attained puberty, H gilts had fewer (p <0.05) follicles (13.5) than M gilts (19.7) and L gilts (21.3). For gilts with follicular development, H gilts had the heaviest (458.7 g) reproductive tract weight (RTW). However, for those that attained puberty, L gilts had the heaviest RTW. RTW were lowest for those with no follicular development. Energy restriction had a negative impact on puberty attainment, i.e. it took longer to reach puberty. However, for gilts that attained puberty, the number of follicles was greater for those on lower feed intakes. It would appear that rate of fat deposition, but not necessarily the total amount of fat, plays an important role in puberty attainment.

A simple rule of thumb for elegant prehension

Reaching out to grasp an object (prehension) is a deceptively elegant and skilled behavior. The movement prior to object contact can be described as having two components [1], the movement of the hand to an appropriate location for gripping the object, the transport component, and the opening and closing of the aperture between the fingers as they prepare to grip the target, the grasp component. The grasp component is sensitive to the size of the object, so that a larger grasp aperture is formed for wider objects [1]; the maximum grasp aperture (MGA) is a little wider than the width of the target object and occurs later in the movement for larger objects [1, 2]. We present a simple model that can account for the temporal relationship between the transport and grasp components, We report the results of an experiment providing empirical support for our rule of thumb. The model provides a simple, but plausible, account of a neural control strategy that has been the center of debate over the last two decades.

Reinfection with Schistosoma haematobium following school-based chemotherapy with praziquantel in four highly endemic villages in Côte d'Ivoire

We present the comparative evaluation of school-based chemotherapy with praziquantel on Schistosoma haematobium reinfection patterns, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after systematic treatment of schoolchildren in four villages of south-central Côte d'Ivoire. At baseline, very high S. haematobium infection prevalences of 88–94% were found in Taabo Village, located adjacent to a large man-made lake, and in Batera and Bodo, where small dams were constructed. In Assinzé, a village with no man-made environmental alterations, the baseline infection prevalence was significantly lower (67%). The parasitological cure rate, assessed 4 weeks after praziquantel administration in the village with the highest prevalence and intensity of infection, was high (82%), and showed a clear association with infection intensity prior to treatment. Six months after chemotherapy, significant reductions in the prevalence and intensity of infection were observed in all villages. However, infection prevalence was again high in Taabo Village (63%) and in Batera (49%). Different patterns of reinfection occurred in the four villages: rapid reinfection in Taabo Village to reach almost baseline infection prevalence 12 months post-treatment; slow but gradual increase in the prevalence and intensity of infection in Bodo; marked increase in prevalence and intensity of infection during the second year of the follow-up in Assinzé; and prevalence and intensity of infection that remained almost constant between 6 and 24 months post-treatment in Batera. Our study confirms that S. haematobium reinfection patterns largely depend on the local epidemiological setting, which is of central importance to tailoring treatment strategies that are well adapted to these different settings.

Determining when the absolute state complexity of a Hermitian code achieves its DLP bound

Let g be the genus of the Hermitian function field H/F(q)2 and let C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) be a typical Hermitian code of length n. In [Des. Codes Cryptogr., to appear], we determined the dimension/length profile (DLP) lower bound on the state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)). Here we determine when this lower bound is tight and when it is not. For m less than or equal to n-2/2 or m greater than or equal to n-2/2 + 2g, the DLP lower bounds reach Wolf's upper bound on state complexity and thus are trivially tight. We begin by showing that for about half of the remaining values of m the DLP bounds cannot be tight. In these cases, we give a lower bound on the absolute state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)), which improves the DLP lower bound. Next we give a good coordinate order for C-L(D,mQ(infinity)). With this good order, the state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) achieves its DLP bound (whenever this is possible). This coordinate order also provides an upper bound on the absolute state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) (for those values of m for which the DLP bounds cannot be tight). Our bounds on absolute state complexity do not meet for some of these values of m, and this leaves open the question whether our coordinate order is best possible in these cases. A straightforward application of these results is that if C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) is self-dual, then its state complexity (with respect to the lexicographic coordinate order) achieves its DLP bound of n /2 - q(2)/4, and, in particular, so does its absolute state complexity.

Excited to death: different ways to lose your neurones

The selective loss of neurones in a range of neurodegenerative diseases is widely thought to involve the process of excitotoxicity, in which glutamate-mediated neuronal killing is elaborated through the excessive stimulation of cell-surface receptors. Every such disease exhibits a distinct regional and subregional pattern of neuronal loss. so processes must be locally triggered to different extents to account for this. We have studied several mechanisms which could lead to excitotoxic glutamate pathophysiology and compared them in different diseases. Our data suggest that glutamate can reach toxic extracellular levels in Alzheimer disease by malfunctions in cellular transporters, and that the toxicity may be exacerbated by continued glutamate release from presynaptic neurones acting on hypersensitive postsynaptic receptors. Thus the excitotoxicity is direct. In contrast, alcoholic brain damage arises in regions where GABA-mediated inhibition is deficient, and fails properly to dampen trans-synaptic excitation, Thus the excitotoxicity is indirect. A variety of such mechanisms is possible, which may combine in different ways.

Cleavage of hemoglobin by hookworm cathespin D aspartic proteases and its potential contribution to host specificity

Hookworms routinely reach the gut of nonpermissive hosts but fail to successfully feed, develop, and reproduce. To investigate the effects of host-parasite coevolution on the ability of hookworms to feed in nonpermissive hosts, we cloned and expressed aspartic proteases from canine and human hookworms. We show here that a cathepsin D-like protease from the canine hookworm Ancylosotoma caninum (Ac-APR-1) and the orthologous protease from the human hookworm Necator americanus (Na-APR-1) are expressed in the gut and probably exert their proteolytic activity extracellularly. Both proteases were detected immunologically and enzymatically in somatic extracts of adult worms. The two proteases were expressed in baculovirus, and both cleaved human and dog hemoglobin (Hb) in vitro. Each protease digested Hb from its permissive host between twofold (whole molecule) and sixfold (synthetic peptides) more efficiently than Hb from the nonpermissive host, despite the two proteases' having identical residues lining their active site clefts. Furthermore, both proteases cleaved Hb at numerous distinct sites and showed different substrate preferences. The findings suggest that the paradigm of matching the molecular structure of the food source within a host to the molecular structure of the catabolic proteases of the parasite is an important contributing factor for host-parasite compatibility and host species range.

Dispersal strategies in Tasmanian native hens (Gallinula mortierii)

Individuals in cooperatively breeding species face a complex set of decisions when they reach reproductive maturity. During an 8-year study, we examined the histories of 214 Tasmanian native hens (Gallinula mortierii) from hatching to examine the strategies they used to acquire breeding positions and the reproductive success they experienced in those breeding positions. Two-thirds of young delayed dispersal from their natal groups for at least a year. Ecological constraints were a partial cause of delayed dispersal; high-quality territories were rare and remained occupied due to high adult survivorship. There were also clear benefits of philopatry. Individuals that inherited breeding positions on their natal territories gained better quality positions and experienced higher reproductive success in their first breeding attempts than did individuals who dispersed to other groups. Multivariate analyses showed that the method of acquisition of breeding positions was the only factor significantly related to the quality of the breeding positions attained. Males were more likely to inherit breeding positions in their natal groups than were females. The compositions of individuals' natal groups had no effect on whether they inherited breeding positions or dispersed. In contrast, the compositions of groups did appear to affect whether other birds dispersed into them, with birds rarely moving into groups that contained breeders or nonbreeders of the same sex as the potential dispersers. Short-term removals of breeders confirmed this finding. These results suggest that both ecological constraints and benefits of philopatry explain delayed dispersal in this species.

Genetic differentiation between Australian and North American populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae): an exploration using allozyme electrophoresis

Allozyme analysis was used to address the question of the source of the Australian populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.). The study had three major aims: (1) To compare the levels of diversity of Australian and Hawaiian populations with potential source populations. (2) To determine whether eastern and western North American populations were sufficiently divergent for the Australian populations to be aligned to a source population. (3) To compare the differentiation among regions in Australia and North America to test the prediction of greater genetic structure in Australia, as a consequence of reduced migratory behaviour. The reverse was found, with F-ST values an order of magnitude lower in Australia than in North America. Predictably, Australian and Hawaiian populations had lower allelic diversity, but unexpected higher heterozygosity values than North American populations. It was not possible to assign the Australian populations to a definitive source, although the high levels of similarity of Australian populations to each other suggest a single colonization event. The possibility that the Australian populations have not been here long enough to reach equilibrium is discussed. (C) 2002 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2002, 75, 437-452.

Rebreathing potential of infant mattresses and bedcovers

Objective : To establish the CO2 dispersion and retention properties of some mattresses and bed coverings commercially available in Australia. Methods : Five mattresses were studied in (i) an in vivo model in which an infant's head was covered by a headbox, rebreathing was allowed to occur, and the final steady state CO2 concentration was measured; and (ii) an in vitro model in which 5% CO2 in a headbox was allowed to disperse, and the time taken for the concentration to reach 1% was measured. Five types of bedcover were studied in (i) an in vivo model in which an infant's head was covered by a bedcover and the final steady state CO2 concentration was measured; and (ii) an in vitro model in which 5% CO2 under a bedcover was allowed to disperse, and the time taken for the concentration to reach 1% was measured. Results : The steady state CO2 concentrations ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% for the mattresses (P < 0.05). The time for CO2 to disperse ranged from 5.5 min to 30.4 min (P < 0.05). Steady state CO2 concentrations ranged from 2.5% to 3.6% for the bedcoverings (P > 0.05). The time for CO2 to disperse ranged from 5.4 min to 7.7 min (P > 0.05). Conclusions : Some commercial cot mattresses and bedcoverings allow high concentrations of CO2 to accumulate in rebreathing environments. Some mattress types studied were more diffusive to CO2 , whereas there was no difference between the bedcovers studied. This may have implications for vulnerable infants at risk of sudden infant death syndrome.

GABA(A) receptor sites in the developing human foetus

GABA(A) receptor sites were characterised in cerebral cortex tissue samples from deceased neurologically normal infants who had come to autopsy during the third trimester of pregnancy. Pharmacological parameters were obtained from homogenate binding studies which utilised the 'central-type' benzodiazepine ligands [H-3]diazepam and [H-3]flunitrazepam, and from the GABA activation of [H-3]diazepam binding. It was found that the two radioligands behaved differently during development. The affinity of [H-3]flunitrazepam for its binding site did not vary significantly between preparations, whereas the [H-3]diazepam K-D showed marked regional and developmental variations: infant tissues showed a distinctly lower affinity than adults for this ligand. The density of [H-3]flunitrazepam binding sites increased similar to35% during the third trimester to reach adult levels by term, whereas [H-3]diazepam binding capacity declined slightly but steadily throughout development. The GABA activation of [H-3]diazepam binding was less efficient early in the trimester, in that the affinity of the agonist was significantly lower, though it rose to adult levels by term. The strength of the enhancement response increased to adult levels over the same time-frame. The results strongly suggest that the subunit composition of cortical GABA(A) sites changes significantly during this important developmental stage. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Catheter effects in organ perfusion experiments

In a typical isolated organ perfusion experiment, a substance is injected upstream of an organ and then collected at some distance downstream. To reach the organ from the injection site, and then from the organ to the collector, a solute passes through catheters, usually tubes with circular cross-sections. Catheters cause distortion to the concentration-time profile of the perfusion. In this paper, we analyse catheter distribution kinetics from a mathematical point of view, develop the function most suitable for modeling this distribution and successfully apply this function to experimental data. (C) 2002 Academic Press.

Detection of swallowing sounds: Methodology revisited

Cervical auscultation is in the process of gaining clinical credibility. In order for it to be accepted by the clinical community, the procedure and equipment used must first be standardized. Takahashi et al. [Dysphagia 9:54-62, 1994] attempted to provide benchmark methodology for administering cervical auscultation. They provided information about the acoustic detector unit best suited to picking up swallowing sounds and the best cervical site to place it. The current investigation provides contrasting results to Takahashi et al. with respect to the best type of acoustic detector unit to use for detecting swallowing sounds. Our study advocates an electret microphone as opposed to an accelerometer for recording swallowing sounds. However, we agree on the optimal placement site. We conclude that cervical auscultation is within reach of the average dysphagia clinic.