247 resultados para Prediction theory.


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Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) offers the potential for a simple, portable and relatively inexpensive technique for the in vivo measurement of total body water (TBW). The potential of BIA as a technique of body composition analysis is even greater when one considers that body water can be used as a surrogate measure of lean body mass. However, BIA has not found universal acceptance even with the introduction of multi-frequency BIA (MFBIA) which, potentially, may improve the predictive accuracy of the measurement. There are a number of reasons for this lack of acceptance, although perhaps the major reason is that no single algorithm has been developed which can be applied to all subject groups. This may be due, in part, to the commonly used wrist-to-ankle protocol which is not indicated by the basic theory of bioimpedance, where the body is considered as five interconnecting cylinders. Several workers have suggested the use of segmental BIA measurements to provide a protocol more in keeping with basic theory. However, there are other difficulties associated with the application of BIA, such as effects of hydration and ion status, posture and fluid distribution. A further putative advantage of MFBIA is the independent assessment not only of TBW but also of the extracellular fluid volume (ECW), hence heralding the possibility of,being able to assess the fluid distribution between these compartments. Results of studies in this area have been, to date, mixed. Whereas strong relationships of impedance values at low frequencies with ECW, and at high frequencies with TBW, have been reported, changes in impedance are not always well correlated with changes in the size of the fluid compartments (assessed by alternative and more direct means) in pathological conditions. Furthermore, the theoretical advantages of Cole-Cole modelling over selected frequency prediction have not always been apparent. This review will consider the principles, methodology and applications of BIA. The principles and methodology will,be considered in relation to the basic theory of BIA and difficulties experienced in its application. The relative merits of single and multiple frequency BIA will be addressed, with particular attention to the latter's role in the assessment of compartmental fluid volumes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The classical model of capillary equilibrium in cylindrical pores is modified here by the introduction of molecular concepts and the solid fluid interaction potential. The new approach accurately predicts capillary coexistence and criticality, with results quantitatively matching those from density functional theory for nitrogen adsorption, while also predicting condensation pressures in agreement with reported experimental findings for MCM-41. The larger critical pore size for nitrogen adsorption in these materials, however, suggests a modification of the potential function parameters, evaluated here from data for hydroxylated silica.

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Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

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This study explores the role of nurturing communication in distinguishing interpersonal and intergroup interactions between health professionals and patients, from the perspective of communication accommodation theory (CAT). Participants (47 men and 87 women) rated videotapes of actual hospital consultations on 12 goal and 16 strategy items derived from CAT. Health professionals in interpersonal interactions were perceived to pay more attention to relationship and emotional needs and to use more nurturant discourse management and emotional expression. These results point the way toward elucidating the perceived optimal balance in accommodative behavior, both group based and interpersonal, in these contexts, and they highlight the importance of nurturant communication to this process.

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Adsorption of binary hydrocarbon mixtures involving methane in carbon slit pores is theoretically studied here from the viewpoints of separation and of the effect of impurities on methane storage. It is seen that even small amounts of ethane, propane, or butane can significantly reduce the methane capacity of carbons. Optimal pore sizes and pressures, depending on impurity concentration, are noted in the present work, suggesting that careful adsorbent and process design can lead to enhanced separation. These results are consistent with earlier literature studies for the infinite dilution limit. For methane storage applications a carbon micropore width of 11.4 Angstrom (based on distance between centers of carbon atoms on opposing walls) is found to be the most suitable from the point of view of lower impurity uptake during high-pressure adsorption and greater impurity retention during low-pressure delivery. The results also theoretically confirm unusual recently reported observations of enhanced methane adsorption in the presence of a small amount of heavier hydrocarbon impurity.

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Multidimensional spatiotemporal parametric simultons (simultaneous solitary waves) are possible in a nonlinear chi((2)) medium with a Bragg grating structure, where large effective dispersion occurs near two resonant band gaps for the carrier and second-harmonic field, respectively. The enhanced dispersion allows much reduced interaction lengths, as compared to bulk medium parametric simultons. The nonlinear parametric band-gap medium permits higher-dimensional stationary waves to form. In addition, solitons can occur with lower input powers than conventional nonlinear Schrodinger equation gap solitons. In this paper, the equations for electromagnetic propagation in a grating structure with a parametric nonlinearity are derived from Maxwell's equation using a coupled mode Hamiltonian analysis in one, two, and three spatial dimensions. Simultaneous solitary wave solutions are proved to exist by reducing the equations to the coupled equations describing a nonlinear parametric waveguide, using the effective-mass approximation (EMA). Exact one-dimensional numerical solutions in agreement with the EMA solutions are also given. Direct numerical simulations show that the solutions have similar types of stability properties to the bulk case, providing the carrier waves are tuned to the two Bragg resonances, and the pulses have a width in frequency space less than the band gap. In summary, these equations describe a physically accessible localized nonlinear wave that is stable in up to 3 + 1 dimensions. Possible applications include photonic logic and switching devices. [S1063-651X(98)06109-1].

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The present study examined the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy [1] in the prediction of alcohol dependence [2] and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. In predicting alcohol dependence, outcome expectancies were found to mediate self-efficacy and the same pattern was found for both males and females. This suggests that male and female drinkers may become more similar as they progress along the drinking continuum from risky drinking to dependent drinking. However, in women, in comparison to men, a greater array of expectancies and self-efficacy scales were found to predict heavy drinking, as measured by quantity and frequency. These results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking related complications and that preventative education needs to take into account gender differences.

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We consider the effect of quantum spin fluctuations on the ground-state properties of the Heisenberg antiferromagnet on an anisotropic triangular lattice using linear spin-wave (LSW) theory. This model should describe the magnetic properties of the insulating phase of the kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X family of superconducting molecular crystals. The ground-state energy, the staggered magnetization, magnon excitation spectra, and spin-wave velocities are computed as functions of the ratio of the antiferromagnetic exchange between the second and first neighbours, J(2)/J(1). We find that near J(2)/J(1) = 0.5, i.e., in the region where the classical spin configuration changes from a Neel-ordered phase to a spiral phase, the staggered magnetization vanishes, suggesting the possibility of a quantum disordered state. in this region, the quantum correction to the magnetization is large but finite. This is in contrast to the case for the frustrated Heisenberg model on a square lattice, for which the quantum correction diverges logarithmically at the transition from the Neel to the collinear phase. For large J(2)/J(1), the model becomes a set of chains with frustrated interchain coupling. For J(2) > 4J(1), the quantum correction to the magnetization, within LSW theory, becomes comparable to the classical magnetization, suggesting the possibility of a quantum disordered state. We show that, in this regime, the quantum fluctuations are much larger than for a set of weakly coupled chains with non-frustrated interchain coupling.

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Modulational instability in optical Bragg gratings with a quadratic nonlinearity is studied. The electric field in such structures consists of forward and backward propagating components at the fundamental frequency and its second harmonic. Analytic continuous wave (CW) solutions are obtained, and the intricate complexity of their stability, due to the large number of equations and number of free parameters, is revealed. The stability boundaries are rich in structures and often cannot be described by a simple relationship. In most cases, the CW solutions are unstable. However, stable regions are found in the nonlinear Schrodinger equation limit, and also when the grating strength for the second harmonic is stronger than that of the first harmonic. Stable CW solutions usually require a low intensity. The analysis is confirmed by directly simulating the governing equations. The stable regions found have possible applications in second-harmonic generation and dark solitons, while the unstable regions maybe useful in the generation of ultrafast pulse trains at relatively low intensities. [S1063-651X(99)03005-6].

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Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

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In this paper I offer an 'integrating account' of singular causation, where the term 'integrating' refers to the following program for analysing causation. There are two intuitions about causation, both of which face serious counterexamples when used as the basis for an analysis of causation. The 'process' intuition, which says that causes and effects are linked by concrete processes, runs into trouble with cases of misconnections', where an event which serves to prevent another fails to do so on a particular occasion and yet the two events are linked by causal processes. The chance raising intuition, according to which causes raise the chance of their effects, easily accounts for misconnections but faces the problem of chance lowering causes, a problem easily accounted for by the process approach. The integrating program attempts to provide an analysis of singular causation by synthesising the two insights, so as to solve both problems. In this paper I show that extant versions of the integrating program due to Eells, Lewis, and Menzies fail to account for the chance-lowering counterexample. I offer a new diagnosis of the chance lowering case, and use that as a basis for an integrating account of causation which does solve both cases. In doing so, I accept various assumptions of the integrating program, in particular that there are no other problems with these two approaches. As an example of the process account, I focus on the recent CQ theory of Wesley Salmon (1997).

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Percolative fragmentation was confirmed to occur during gasification of three microporous coal chars. Indirect evidence obtained by the variation of electrical resistivity (ER) with conversion was supported by direct observation of numerous fragments during gasification. The resistivity increases slowly at low conversions and then sharply after a certain conversion value, which is a typical percolation phenomenon suggesting the occurrence of internal fragmentation at high conversion. Two percolation models are applied to interpret the experimental data and determine the percolation threshold. A percolation threshold of 0.02-0.07 was found, corresponding to a critical conversion of 92-96% for fragmentation. The electrical resistivity variation at high conversions is found to be very sensitive to diffusional effects during gasification. Partially burnt samples with a narrow initial particle size range were also observed microscopically, and found to yield a large number of small fragments even when the particles showed no disintegration and chemical control prevailed. It is proposed that this is due to the separation of isolated clusters from the particle surface. The particle size distribution of the fragments was essentially independent of the reaction conditions and the char type, and supported the prediction by percolation theory that the number fraction distribution varies linearly with mass in a log-log plot. The results imply that perimeter fragmentation would occur in practical combustion systems in which the reactions are strongly diffusion affected.

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The removal of chemicals in solution by overland how from agricultural land has the potential to be a significant source of chemical loss where chemicals are applied to the soil surface, as in zero tillage and surface-mulched farming systems. Currently, we lack detailed understanding of the transfer mechanism between the soil solution and overland flow, particularly under field conditions. A model of solute transfer from soil solution to overland flow was developed. The model is based on the hypothesis that a solute is initially distributed uniformly throughout the soil pore space in a thin layer at the soil surface. A fundamental assumption of the model is that at the time runoff commences, any solute at the soil surface that could be transported into the soil with the infiltrating water will already have been convected away from the area of potential exchange. Solute remaining at the soil surface is therefore not subject to further infiltration and may be approximated as a layer of tracer on a plane impermeable surface. The model fitted experimental data very well in all but one trial. The model in its present form focuses on the exchange of solute between the soil solution and surface water after the commencement of runoff. Future model development requires the relationship between the mass transfer parameters of the model and the time to runoff: to be defined. This would enable the model to be used for extrapolation beyond the specific experimental results of this study. The close agreement between experimental results and model simulations shows that the simple transfer equation proposed in this study has promise for estimating solute loss to surface runoff. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of a new bioelectrical impedance instrument, the Soft Tissue Analyzer (STA), which predicts a subject's body composition. A cross-sectional population study in which the impedance of 205 healthy adult subjects was measured using the STA. Extracellular water (ECW) volume (as a percentage of total body water, TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) were predicted by both the STA and a compartmental model, and compared according to correlation and limits of agreement analysis, with the equivalent data obtained by independent reference methods of measurement (TBW measured by D2O dilution, and FFM measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry). There was a small (2.0 kg) but significant (P < 0.02) difference in mean FFM predicted by the STA, compared with the reference technique in the males, but not in the females (-0.4 kg) or in the combined group (0.8 kg). Both methods were highly correlated. Similarly, small but significant differences for predicted mean ECW volume were observed. The limits of agreement for FFM and ECW were -7.5-9.9 and -4.1-3.0 kg, respectively. Both FFM and ECW (as a percentage of TBW) are well predicted by the STA on a population basis, but the magnitude of the limits of agreement with reference methods may preclude its usefulness for predicting body composition in an individual. In addition, the theoretical basis of an impedance method that does not include a measure of conductor length requires further validation. (C) Elsevier Science Inc. 2000.