Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Epidemiology and strain characteristics of Echinococcus granulosus in the Benghazi area of eastern Libya

The incidence of surgically confirmed cystic echinococcosis in eastern Libya was estimated to be at least 4.2 cases/100,000, with significantly more female cases than male. The prevalences of infection with Echinococcus granulosus among 1087 sheep, 881 goats, 428 camels and 614 cattle from the same region, determined postmortem in abattoirs, were 20%, 3.4%, 13.6% and 11%, respectively. Infection in the livestock was age-dependent and, generally, the female animals were more often infected than the male. The measurements of rostellar hooks on protoscoleces collected from sheep and cattle were similar but significantly different from the corresponding measurements of parasites of human or camel origin. However, when a portion of the cytochrome c-oxidase subunit I (coxl) gene from each of 30 protoscolex samples from Libya (12 from cattle, three from humans, five from camels and 10 from sheep) was sequenced, the sequences were all found to be identical to that published for the common sheep strain of E. granulosus.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Short report: Molecular genetic characterization of an unusually severe case of hydatid disease in Alaska caused by the cervid strain of Echinococcus granulosusi

Distinct Echinococcus granulosus life cycle patterns have been described in North America: domestic and sylvatic. Gene sequences of the sylvatic E. granulosus indicate that it represents a separate variant. Case-based data have suggested that the course of sylvatic disease is less severe than that of domestic disease. which led to the recommendation to treat cystic echinococcosis patients in the Arctic by careful medical management rather than by aggressive surgery. We recently reported the first two documented E. granalosus human cases in Alaska with accompanying severe sequelae. Here we describe the results of molecular genetic analysis of the cyst material of one of the subjects that supported identification of the parasite as the sylvatic (cervid) strain and not the domestic (common sheep strain), which was initially thought to be implicated in these unusually severe Alaskan cases.

Differences in mouse strain influence leukocyte and immunoglobulin phenotype response to Porphyromonas gingivalis

This study examined the nature of the infiltrating cells in Porphyromonas gingivalis-induced lesions and immunoglobulins in the serum samples of BALB/c (H-2(d)), C57BL6 (H-2(b)), DBA/2J (H-2(d)) and CBA/CaH (H-2(k)) mice. Mice were immunized intraperitoneally with P. gingivalis outer membrane antigens or sham-immunized with phosphate-buffered saline followed by subcutaneous challenge with live organisms 1 week after the final immunization. The resulting skin abscesses were excised 7 days later, cryostat sections cut and an immunoperoxidase method used to detect the presence of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell subsets, CD14(+) macrophages and CD19(+) B cells. Peroxidase positive neutrophils and IgG1- and IgG2a-producing plasma cells were also identified. Anti P. gingivalis IgG1 and IgG2a subclass antibodies were determined in serum obtained by cardiac puncture. Very few CD8(+) T cells and CD19(+) B cells were found in any of the lesions. The percentages of CD4(+) cells, CD14(+) cells and neutrophils were similar in lesions of immunized BALB/c and C57BL6 mice, with a trend towards a higher percentage of CD14(+) cells in sham-immunized mice. The percentage of CD14(+) cells was higher than that of CD4(+) cells in immunized compared with sham-immunized DBA/2J mice. The percentages of CD4(+) and CD14(+) cells predominated in immunized CBA/CaH mice and CD4(+) cells in sham-immunized CBA/CaH mice. The percentage of neutrophils in immunized CBA/CaH mice was significantly lower than that of CD14(+) cells and CD4(+) cells in sham-immunized mice. IgG1(+) plasma cells were more dominant than IgG2a(+) cells in immunized BALB/c, C57BL6 and DBA/2J mice, whereas IgG2a(+) plasma cells were more obvious in sham-immunized mice. IgG2a(+) plasma cells were predominant in immunized and sham-immunized CBA/CaH mice. In the serum, specific anti-P. gingivalis IgG2a antibody levels (Th1 response) were higher than IgG1 levels (Th2 response) in sham-immunized CBA/CaH and DBA/2J mice. In immunized BALB/c mice, IgG2a levels were lower than IgG1 levels, while IgG2a levels were higher in immunized C57BL6 mice. In conclusion, this study has shown differences in the proportion of infiltrating leukocytes and in the subclasses of immunoglobulin produced locally and systemically in response to P. gingivalis in different strains of mice, suggesting a degree of genetic control over the response to P. gingivalis.

Acoustic analysis of speech through a hearing aid: perceptual effects of changes with two-channel compression

Compression amplification significantly alters the acoustic speech signal in comparison to linear amplification. The central hypothesis of the present study was that the compression settings of a two-channel aid that best preserved the acoustic properties of speech compared to linear amplification would yield the best perceptual results, and that the compression settings that most altered the acoustic properties of speech compared to linear would yield significantly poorer speech perception. On the basis of initial acoustic analysis of the test stimuli recorded through a hearing aid, two different compression amplification settings were chosen for the perceptual study. Participants were 74 adults with mild to moderate sensorineural hearing impairment. Overall, the speech perception results supported the hypothesis. A further aim of the study was to determine if variation in participants' speech perception with compression amplification (compared to linear amplification) could be explained by the individual characteristics of age, degree of loss, dynamic range, temporal resolution, and frequency selectivity; however, no significant relationships were found.

DNA vaccine coding for the full-length infectious Kunjin virus RNA protects mice against the New York strain of West Nile virus

A plasmid DNA directing transcription of the infectious full-length RNA genome of Kunjin (KUN) virus in vivo from a mammalian expression promoter was used to vaccinate mice intramuscularly. The KUN viral cDNA encoded in the plasmid contained the mutation in the NS1 protein (Pro-250 to Leu) previously shown to attenuate KUN virus in weanling mice. KUN virus was isolated from the blood of immunized mice 3-4 days after DNA inoculation, demonstrating that infectious RNA was being transcribed in vivo; however, no symptoms of virus-induced disease were observed. By 19 days postimmunization, neutralizing antibody was detected in the serum of immunized animals. On challenge with lethal doses of the virulent New York strain of West Nile (WN) or wild-type KUN virus intracerebrally or intraperitoneally, mice immunized with as little as 0.1-1 mug of KUN plasmid DNA were solidly protected against disease. This finding correlated with neutralization data in vitro showing that serum from KUN DNA-immunized mice neutralized KUN and WN,viruses with similar efficiencies. The results demonstrate that delivery of an attenuated but replicating KUN virus via a plasmid DNA vector may provide an effective vaccination strategy against virulent strains of WN virus.

Pseudo-randomness of round-off errors in discretized linear maps on the plane

We analyze the sequences of round-off errors of the orbits of a discretized planar rotation, from a probabilistic angle. It was shown [Bosio & Vivaldi, 2000] that for a dense set of parameters, the discretized map can be embedded into an expanding p-adic dynamical system, which serves as a source of deterministic randomness. For each parameter value, these systems can generate infinitely many distinct pseudo-random sequences over a finite alphabet, whose average period is conjectured to grow exponentially with the bit-length of the initial condition (the seed). We study some properties of these symbolic sequences, deriving a central limit theorem for the deviations between round-off and exact orbits, and obtain bounds concerning repetitions of words. We also explore some asymptotic problems computationally, verifying, among other things, that the occurrence of words of a given length is consistent with that of an abstract Bernoulli sequence.