Nonoxynol-9 spermicide for prevention of vaginally acquired HIV and other sexually transmitted infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials including more than 5000 women

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the vaginally administered spermicide nonoxynol-9 (N-9) among women for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), We did a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, Nine such trials including 5096 women, predominantly sex workers, comparing N-9 with placebo or no treatment, were included. Primary outcomes were new HIV infection, new episodes of various STIs, and genital lesions. Five trials included HIV and nine included STI outcomes, and all but one (2% of the data) contributed to the meta-analysis. Overall, relative risks of HIV infection (1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.42), gonorrhoea (0.91, 0.67-1.24), chlamyclia (0.88, 0.77-1.01), cervical infection (1.01, 0.84-1-22), trichomoniasis (0.84, 0.69-1.02), bacterial vaginosis (0.88, 0.74-1.04) and candidiasis (0.97, 0.84-1.12) were not significantly different in the N-9 and placebo or no treatment groups. Genital lesions were more common in the N-9 group (1.18, 1.02-1.36). Our review has found no statistically significant reduction in risk of HIV and STIs, and the confidence intervals indicate that any protection that may exist is likely to be very small. There is some evidence of harm through genital lesions. N-9 cannot be recommended for HIV and STI prevention.

Perioperative epidural analgesia and outcome after major abdominal surgery in high-risk patients

In a primary analysis of a large recently completed randomized trial in 915 high-risk patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, we found no difference in outcome between patients receiving perioperative epidural analgesia and those receiving IV opioids, apart from the incidence of respiratory failure. Therefore, we performed a selected number of predetermined subgroup analyses to identify specific types of patients who may have derived benefit from epidural analgesia. We found no difference in outcome between epidural and control groups in subgroups at increased risk of respiratory or cardiac complications or undergoing aortic surgery, nor in a subgroup with failed epidural block (all P > 0.05). There was a small reduction in the duration of postoperative ventilation (geometric mean [SD]: control group, 0.3 [6.5] h, versus epidural group, 0.2 [4.8] h, P = 0.048). No differences were found in length of stay in intensive care or in the hospital. There was no relationship between frequency of use of epidural analgesia in routine practice outside the trial and benefit from epidural analgesia in the trial. We found no evidence that perioperative epidural analgesia significantly influences major morbidity or mortality after major abdominal surgery.

The prevalence, intensities and risk factors associated with geohelminth infection in tea-growing communities of Assam, India

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors for infection with Ascaris, hookworms and Trichuris in three tea-growing communities in Assam, India. METHODS Single faecal samples were collected from 328 individuals and subjected to centrifugal floatation and the Kato Katz quantitation technique and prevalence and intensities of infection with each parasite calculated. Associations between parasite prevalence, intensity and host and environmental factors were then made using both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS The overall prevalence of Ascaris was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33, 43], and the individual prevalence of hookworm and Trichuris was 43% (95% CI: 38, 49). The strongest predictors for the intensity of one or more geohelminths using multiple regression (P less than or equal to 0.10) were socioeconomic status, age, household crowding, level of education, religion, use of footwear when outdoors, defecation practices, pig ownership and water source. CONCLUSION A universal blanket treatment with broad-spectrum anthelmintics together with promotion of scholastic and health education and improvements in sanitation is recommended for helminth control in the communities under study.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Serum triglycerides as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background-The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. Methods and Results-We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796 671 person-years of follow-up among 96 224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. Conclusions-Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

An analysis of valve re-replacement after aortic valve replacement with biologic devices

Biologic valve re-replacement was examined in a series of 1343 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, with a cryopreserved or 4 degrees C stored allograft valve or a xenograft valve, A parametric model approach was used to simultaneously model the competing risks of death without re-replacement and re-replacement before death, One hundred eleven patients underwent a first re-replacement for a variety of reasons (69 patients with xenograft valves, 28 patients with 4 degrees C stored allograft valves, and 14 patients with cryopreserved allograft valves), By multivariable analysis younger age at operation was associated with xenograft, 4 degrees C stored allograft, and cryopreserved allograft valve re-replacement, However, this effect was examined in the context of longer survival of younger patients, which increases their exposure to the risk of re-replacement as compared with that in older patients whose decreased survival reduced their probability of requiring valve re-replacement, In patients older than 60 years at the time of aortic valve replacement, the probability of re-replacement (for any reason) before death was similar for xenografts and cryopreserved allograft valves but higher for 4 degrees C stored valves, However, in patients younger than 60 years, the probability of re-replacement at any time during the remainder of the life of the patient was lower with the cryopreserved allograft valve compared with the xenograft valve and 4 degrees C stored allografts.

Risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men

Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.

Analysis of workplace injuries in a dental school environment

Workplace injuries at the University of Queensland Dental School during the period 1992-1994 were assessed to determine their incidence, and the associated indirect costs, causal factors, and appropriate preventive strategies. Overall, dental chairside assistants experienced a higher incidence of injuries than students both on a per worker and per time basis. Of the injuries with a low risk of cross-infection, burns and scalds from sterilizing equipment, and eye injuries in laboratories were the most common. This emphasizes the importance of wearing appropriate protective equipment in areas outside the treatment zone, and the need for signage and education. Common causes of sharps injuries were burs left in handpieces, two-handed needle recapping, and cleaning of probes in the sterilizing room. Changes to techniques and equipment would prevent such incidents. A range of factors which contribute to the calculation of indirect costs following injuries in the dental workplace are identified.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Willingness of Sri Lankan farmers to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants: An empirical analysis

This paper explores the feasibility of adopting an integrated economic approach to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on their farming lands. Responses to this approach were sought from a sample of farmers in the areas affected by human elephant conflict in the northwestern province of Sri Lanka. Results from a contingent valuation survey of their willingness to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants are also reported. Two separate logit regression analyses were undertaken to examine the factors that influence the farmers’ responses for the payment principle question and their opinions on the integrated economic approach. Although found that the majority of the respondents expressed their willingness to pay for the proposed scheme and supported for the implementation of the integrated approach, we have insufficient data yet to determine if their support and financial contribution would be sufficient to set up this programme and also to predict its economic viability. Nevertheless, the overall finding of this study provides an improved economic assessment of the farmers’ attitudes towards the wild elephant in Sri Lanka. At the same time the study shows that, contrary to commonly held assumptions, farmers in this developing country, do support wildlife conservation.

Towards a molecular epidemiology of alcohol dependence analysing the interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors

Background Progress in identifying genetic factors protective against alcohol dependence (AlcD) requires a paradigm shift in psychiatric epidemiology. Aims To integrate analysis of research into the genetics of alcoholism. Method Data from prospective questionnaire and interview surveys of the Australian twin panel, and from a subsample who underwent alcohol challenge, were analysed. Results In men, effects of alcohol dehydrogenase ADH2*1/*2 genotype or high alcohol sensitivity (risk-decreasing), and of history of childhood conduct disorder, or having monozygotic co-twin or twin sister with AlcD (risk-increasing) were significant and comparable in magnitude. Religious affiliation (Anglican versus other) was associated with the ADH2 genotype, but did not explain the associations with AlcD symptoms. No protective effect of the ADH2*1/*2 genotype was observed in women. Conclusions The early onset and strong familial aggregation of AlcD, and opportunity for within-family tests of genetic association to avoid confounding effects, make epidemiological family studies of adolescents and young adults and their families a priority.

Variation in Alcohol Pharmacokinetics as a Risk Factor for Alcohol Dependence

Background: The significant association between alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH)-2 genotype and alcohol-dependence risk, demonstrated in both Asian and non-Asian populations, suggests a link between the metabolism of alcohol (ethanol) and individual differences in susceptibility to dependence. Methods: We tested this hypothesis by following up on subjects who took part in the Alcohol Challenge Twin Study conducted in 1979-1981 and comparing the blood and breath alcohol results in that study between subjects who subsequently did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence in 1992-1993. Results: Subjects who met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence at follow-up had higher blood and breath alcohol values after alcohol challenge than never-dependent subjects. Multivariate analysis showed independent effects of susceptibility to alcohol dependence and smoking status on blood alcohol concentrations, whereas habitual alcohol intake at the time of the initial study had marginally significant effects. The risk of alcohol dependence was 2-fold higher in men and 3-fold higher in women with blood or breath alcohol concentrations in the highest quartile than in the lowest quartile. Conclusions: In view of this association and the known genetic influences on both alcohol pharmacokinetics and alcohol dependence, it is probable that part of the heritability of dependence is mediated by genes (other than the known ADH2 and ADH3 polymorphisms) affecting alcohol metabolism.