Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

A semi-empirical approach to optimise the quantity of drying aids required to spray dry sugar-rich foods

A semi-empirical linear equation has been developed to optimise the amount of maltodextrin additive (DE 6) required to successfully spray dry a sugar-rich product on the basis of its composition. Based on spray drying experiments, drying index values for individual sugars (sucrose, glucose, frutose) and citric acid were determined, and us;ng these index values an equation for model mixtures of these components was established. This equation has been tested with two sugar-rich natural products, pineapple juice and honey. The relationship was found to be valid for these products.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Icodextrin as salvage therapy in peritoneal dialysis patients with refractory fluid overload

Background Icodextrin is a high molecular weight, starch-derived glucose polymer, which is capable of inducing sustained ultrafiltration over prolonged (12–16 hour) peritoneal dialysis (PD) dwells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of icodextrin to alleviate refractory, symptomatic fluid overload and prolong technique survival in PD patients. Methods A prospective, open-label, pre-test/post-test study was conducted in 17 PD patients (8 females/9 males, mean age 56.8 ± 2.9 years) who were on the verge of being transferred to haemodialysis because of symptomatic fluid retention that was refractory to fluid restriction, loop diuretic therapy, hypertonic glucose exchanges and dwell time optimisation. One icodextrin exchange (2.5 L 7.5%, 12-hour dwell) was substituted for a long-dwell glucose exchange each day. Results Icodextrin significantly increased peritoneal ultrafiltration (885 ± 210 ml to 1454 ± 215 ml, p < 0.05) and reduced mean arterial pressure (106 ± 4 to 96 ± 4 mmHg, p < 0.05), but did not affect weight, plasma albumin concentration, haemoglobin levels or dialysate:plasma creatinine ratio. Diabetic patients (n = 12) also experienced improved glycaemic control (haemoglobin Alc decreased from 8.9 ± 0.7% to 7.9 ± 0.7%, p < 0.05). Overall PD technique survival was prolonged by a mean of 11.6 months (95% CI 6.0–17.3 months). On multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, extension of technique survival by icodextrin was only significantly predicted by baseline net daily peritoneal ultrafiltration (adjusted HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.13–5.62, p < 0.05). Conclusions Icodextrin significantly improved peritoneal ultrafiltration and extended technique survival in PD patients with symptomatic fluid overload, especially those who had substantially impaired peritoneal ultrafiltration.

Mathematical methods for spatially cohesive reserve design

The problem of designing spatially cohesive nature reserve systems that meet biodiversity objectives is formulated as a nonlinear integer programming problem. The multiobjective function minimises a combination of boundary length, area and failed representation of the biological attributes we are trying to conserve. The task is to reserve a subset of sites that best meet this objective. We use data on the distribution of habitats in the Northern Territory, Australia, to show how simulated annealing and a greedy heuristic algorithm can be used to generate good solutions to such large reserve design problems, and to compare the effectiveness of these methods.

Control of nitrate recirculation flow in predenitrification systems

The control of the nitrate recirculation flow in a predenitrification system is addressed. An elementary mass balance analysis on the utilisation efficiency of the influent biodegradable COD (bCOD) for nitrate removal indicates that the control problem can be broken down into two parts: maintaining the anoxic zone anoxic (i.e. nitrate is present throughout the anoxic zone) and maximising the usage of influent soluble bCOD for denitrification. Simulation studies using the Simulation Benchmark developed in the European COST program show that both objectives can be achieved by maintaining the nitrate concentration at the outlet of the anoxic zone at around 2 mgN/L. This setpoint appears to be robust towards variations in the influent characteristics and sludge kinetics.

A pilot study of the manual force levels required to produce manipulation induced hypoalgesia

Objective. A pilot investigation of the influence of different force levels on a treatment technique's hypoalgesic effect. Design. Randomised single blind repeated measures. Background. Optimisation of such biomechanical treatment variables as the point of force application, direction of force application and the level of applied manual force is classically regarded as the basis of best practice manipulative therapy. Manipulative therapy is frequently used to alleviate pain, a treatment effect that is often studied directly in the neurophysiological, paradigm and seldom in biomechanical research. The relationship between the level of force applied by a technique (e.g. biomechanics) and its hypoalgesic effect was the focus of this study. Method. The experiment involved the application of a lateral glide mobilisation with movement treatment technique to the symptomatic elbow of six subjects with lateral epicondylalgia. Four different levels of force, which were measured with a flexible pressure-sensing mat, were randomly applied while the subject performed a pain free grip strength test. Results. Standardised manual force data varied from 0.76 to 4.54 N/cm, lower-upper limits 95 Cl, respectively. Pain free grip strength expressed as a percentage change from pre-treatment values was significantly greater with manual forces beyond 1.9 N/cm (P = 0.014). Conclusions. This study, albeit a pilot, provides preliminary evidence that in terms of the hypoalgesic effect of a mobilisation with movement treatment technique, there may be an optimal level of applied manual force.

Production of the baculovirus-expressed dengue virus glycoprotein NS1 can be improved dramatically with optimised regimes for fed-batch cultures and the addition of the insect moulting hormone, 20-Hydroxyecdysone

A perennial problem in recombinant protein expression is low yield of the product of interest. A strategy which has been shown to increase the production of baculovirus-expressed proteins is to utilise fed-batch cultures. One disadvantage of this approach is the time-consuming task of optimising the feeding strategy. Previously, a statistical optimisation routine was applied to develop a feeding strategy that increased the yield of beta-Galactosidase (beta-Gal) by 2.4-fold (Biotechnol. Bioeng, 59 (1998) 178). This involves the single addition of nutrient concentrates (amino acids, lipids. glucose and yeastolate ultrafiltrate) into Sf9 cell cultures grown in SF900II medium. In this study, it is demonstrated that this optimised fed-batch strategy developed for a high-yielding intracellular product beta-Gal could be applied successfully to a relatively low-yielding glycosylated and secreted product such as the dengue virus glycoprotein NS1. Optimised batch infections yielded 4 mug/ml of NS1 at a peak cell density of 4.2 x 10(6) cells/ml. In contrast. optimised fed-batch infections exhibited a 3-fold improvement in yield, with 12 mug ml of NS1 produced at a peak cell density of 11.3 x 10(6) cells/ml. No further improvements in yield were recorded when the feed volumes were doubled and the peak cell density was increased to 23 x 10(6) cells/ml, unless the cultures were stimulated by the addition of 4 mug/ml of 20-Hydroxyecdysone (an insect moulting hormone). In this case, the NS1 yield was increased to 20 mug/ml. which was nearly 5-fold higher than optimised batch cultures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of research to improve the efficiency of breeding strategies for white clover in Australia - a review

A major challenge faced by today's white clover breeder is how to manage resources within a breeding program. It is essential to utilise these resources with sufficient flexibility to build on past progress from conventional breeding strategies, but also take advantage of emerging opportunities from molecular breeding tools such as molecular markers and transformation. It is timely to review white clover breeding strategies. This background can then be used as a foundation for considering how to continue conventional plant improvement activities and complement them with molecular breeding opportunities. In this review, conventional white clover breeding strategies relevant to the Australian dryland target population environments are considered. Attention is given to: (i) availability of genetic variation, (ii) characterisation of germplasm collections, (iii) quantitative models for estimation of heritability, (iv) the role of multi-environment trials to accommodate genotype-by-environment interactions, (v) interdisciplinary research to understand adaptation to dryland environments, (vi) breeding and selection strategies, and (vii) cultivar structure. Current achievements in biotechnology with specific reference to white clover breeding in Australia are considered, and computer modelling of breeding programs is discussed as a useful integrative tool for the joint evaluation of conventional and molecular breeding strategies and optimisation of resource use in breeding programs. Four areas are identified as future research priorities: (i) capturing the potential genetic diversity among introduced accessions and ecotypes that are adapted to key constraints such as summer moisture stress and the use of molecular markers to assess the genetic diversity, (ii) understanding the underlying physiological/morphological root and shoot mechanisms involved in water use efficiency of white clover, with the objective of identifying appropriate selection criteria, (iii) estimation of quantitative genetic parameters of important morphological/physiological attributes to enable prediction of response to selection in target environments, and (iv) modelling white clover breeding strategies to evaluate the opportunities for integration of molecular breeding strategies with conventional breeding programs.

Variables affecting the fine grinding of minerals using stirred mills

Base metal resources are becoming more fine-grained and refractory and minerals separation processes require these ores to be milled to increasingly finer sizes. To cope with very fine grinding to below a P-80 of approximately 15 mum stirred milling technology has been adopted from other industries Neither this technology, nor the basic concepts of fine grinding, are well understood by the minerals processing industry. Laboratory studies were therefore carried out in order to investigate fine milling using different types of stirred mills. The variables analysed were stirrer speed, grinding media type and size, slurry solids content as well as the feed and product size. The results of the testwork have shown that all of these variables affect the grinding efficiency. The ratio of media size to material size was found to be of particular significance. The results were also analysed using the stress intensity approach and the optimum stress intensity ranges for the most efficient grinding were determined. Application of the results for process optimisation in the industrial size units is also discussed in this paper. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model of recovery of dense medium magnetics in the wet drum magnetic separator

Loss of magnetic medium solids from dense medium circuits is a substantial contributor to operating cost. Much of this loss is by way of wet drum magnetic separator effluent. A model of the separator would be useful for process design, optimisation and control. A review of the literature established that although various rules of thumb exist, largely based on empirical or anecdotal evidence, there is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was therefore carried out using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 mm diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in the work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. Observations carried out as an adjunct to this work, as well as magnetic theory, suggests that the capture of magnetic particles in the wet drum magnetic separator is by a flocculation process. Such a process should be defined by a flocculation rate and a flocculation time; the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the separation zone. A model based on this concept and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to provide a satisfactory fit to the data over three orders of magnitude of magnetics loss. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.

Discrete element modelling of power draw of tumbling mills

The power required to operate large mills is typically 5-10 MW. Hence, optimisation of power consumption will have a significant impact on overall economic performance and environmental impact. Power draw modelling results using the discrete element code PFC3D have been compared with results derived from the widely used empirical Model of Morrell. This is achieved by calculating the power draw for a range of operating conditions for constant mill size and fill factor using two modelling approaches. fThe discrete element modelling results show that, apart from density, selection of the appropriate material damping ratio is critical for the accuracy of modelling of the mill power draw. The relative insensitivity of the power draw to the material stiffness allows selection of moderate stiffness values, which result in acceptable computation time. The results obtained confirm that modelling of the power draw for a vertical slice of the mill, of thickness 20% of the mill length, is a reliable substitute for modelling the full mill. The power draw predictions from PFC3D show good agreement with those obtained using the empirical model. Due to its inherent flexibility, power draw modelling using PFC3D appears to be a viable and attractive alternative to empirical models where necessary code and computer power are available.

Critical comparison of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) blast fragmentation models

Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.

Effect of solute lipophilicity on penetration through canine skin

Objective To investigate the effect of lipophilicity on the percutaneous penetration of a homologous series of alcohols through canine skin Design Skin harvested from Greyhound thorax was placed in Franz-type diffusion cells and the in vitro passage of radio-labelled (C-14) alcohols (ethanol, butanol, hexanol and octanol (Log P 0.19 - 3.0)) through separate skin sections was measured in replicates of five. Permeability coefficient (k(P), cm/h), maximum flux (J(max), mol/cm(2)/h) and residue remaining within the skin were determined. Results The k(P) increased with increasing lipophilicity (6.2 x 10(-4) +/- 1.6 x 10(-4) cm/h for ethanol to 1.8 x 10(-2) 3.6 x 10(-3) cm/h for octanol). Alcohol residues remaining within each skin sample followed a similar pattern. An exponential decrease in Jmax with increasing lipophilicity was observed. Conclusion Changes in canine skin permeability occur with increasing alcohol lipophilicity. This finding has practical consequences for the design of topical formulations and optimisation of drug delivery through animal skin.