The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Quality of care of patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure

Background: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is an increasingly prevalent poor-prognosis condition for which effective interventions are available. It is -therefore important to determine the extent to which patients with CHF receive appropriate care in Australian hospitals and identify ways for improving suboptimal care, if it exists. Aim: To evaluate the quality of in-hospital acute care of patients with CHF using explicit quality indicators based on published guidelines. Methods: A retrospective case note review was -performed, involving 216 patients admitted to three teaching hospitals in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, between October 2000 and April 2001. Outcome measures were process-of-care quality -indicators calculated as proportions of all, or strongly -eligible (ideal), patients who received -specific interventions. Results: Assessment of underlying causes and acute precipitating factors was undertaken in 86% and 76% of patients, respectively, and objective evaluation of left ventricular function was performed in 62% of patients. Prophylaxis for deep venous thrombosis (DVT) was used in only 29% of ideal patients. Proportions of ideal patients receiving pharmacological treatments at discharge were: (i) angiotensin--converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) (82%), (ii) target doses of ACEi (61%), (iii) alternative vasodilators in patients ineligible for ACEi (20%), (iv) beta-blockers (40%) and (v) warfarin (46%). Conclusions: Opportunities exist for improving quality of in-hospital care of patients with CHF, -particularly for optimal prescribing of: (i) DVT prophylaxis, (ii) ACEi, (iii) second-line vasodilators, (iv) beta-blockers and (v) warfarin. More research is needed to identify methods for improving quality of in-hospital care.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Body proportions in three Nigerian tribes

Prediction equations of body composition based on measurements of whole-body bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) have been found to be population-specific. It was hypothesised that this may be, in part, due to differences in proportional limb lengths between ethnic or racial groups. As a preliminary to a survey of body composition in urban Nigerians using BIA, the relative limb lengths of the three major tribal groups (Hausa, Yoruba and Ibo) were determined. We found small (5-9%) but significantly longer limb lengths in Nigerians compared to a Caucasian population, but no significant differences between tribes. This implies that BIA prediction equations generated in a Caucasian population are inappropriate for use in a Nigerian population.

Visual Biology of Hawaiian Coral Reef Fishes. III. Environmental Light and an Integrated Approach to the Ecology of Reef Fish Vision

In the previous two papers in this three-part series, we have examined visual pigments, ocular media transmission, and colors of the coral reef fish of Hawaii. This paper first details aspects of the light field and background colors at the microhabitat level on Hawaiian reefs and does so from the perspective and scale of fish living on the reef. Second, information from all three papers is combined in an attempt to examine trends in the visual ecology of reef inhabitants. Our goal is to begin to see fish the way they appear to other fish. Observations resulting from the combination of results in all three papers include the following. Yellow and blue colors on their own are strikingly well matched to backgrounds on the reef such as coral and bodies of horizontally viewed water. These colors, therefore, depending on context, may be important in camouflage as well as conspicuousness. The spectral characteristics of fish colors are correlated to the known spectral sensitivities in reef fish single cones and are tuned for maximum signal reliability when viewed against known backgrounds. The optimal positions of spectral sensitivity in a modeled dichromatic visual system are generally close to the sensitivities known for reef fish. Models also predict that both UV-sensitive and red-sensitive cone types are advantageous for a variety of tasks. UV-sensitive cones are known in some reef fish, red-sensitive cones have yet to be found. Labroid colors, which appear green or blue to us, may he matched to the far-red component of chlorophyll reflectance for camouflage. Red cave/hole dwelling reef fish are relatively poorly matched to the background they are often viewed against but this may be visually irrelevant. The model predicts that the task of distinguishing green algae from coral is optimized with a relatively long wavelength visual pigment pair. Herbivorous grazers whose visual pigments are known possess the longest sensitivities so far found. Labroid complex colors are highly contrasting complementary colors close up but combine, because of the spatial addition, which results from low visual resolution, at distance, to match background water colors remarkably well. Therefore, they are effective for simultaneous communication and camouflage.

Balancing the number and size of sites: An economic approach to the optimal design of cluster samples

The design of randomized controlled trials entails decisions that have economic as well as statistical implications. In particular, the choice of an individual or cluster randomization design may affect the cost of achieving the desired level of power, other things being equal. Furthermore, if cluster randomization is chosen, the researcher must decide how to balance the number of clusters, or sites, and the size of each site. This article investigates these interrelated statistical and economic issues. Its principal purpose is to elucidate the statistical and economic trade-offs to assist researchers to employ randomized controlled trials that have desired economic, as well as statistical, properties. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.