Thunderstorms - their importance in wind engineering (a case for the next generation wind tunnel)

This paper attempts a state-of-the-art summary of research into thunderstorm wind fields from an engineering perspective. The characteristics of thunderstorms and the two extreme wind events-tornadoes and downbursts-spawn by thunderstorms are described. The significant differences from traditional boundary layer flows are highlighted. The importance of thunderstorm gusts in the worldwide database of extreme wind events is established. Physical simulations of tornadoes and downbursts are described and discussed leading to the recommendation that Wind Engineering needs to focus more resources on the fundamental issue - What is the flow structure in the strongest winds? © 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Productivity growth in pre-1990 Mongolian agriculture: Spiralling disaster or emerging success?

The reasons for the spectacular collapse of so many centrally-planned economies are a source of ongoing debate. In this paper, we use detailed farm-level data to measure total factor productivity (TFP) changes in Mongolian grain and potato farming during the 14-year period immediately preceding the 1990 economic reforms. We measure TFP growth using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. Our results indicate quite poor overall performance, with an average annual TFP change of - 1.7% in grain and 0.8% in potatoes, over the 14-year period. However, the pattern of TFP growth changed substantially during this period, with TFP growth exceeding 7% per year in the latter half of this period. This suggests that the new policies of improved education, greater management autonomy, and improved incentives, which were introduced in final two planning periods in the 1980s, were beginning to have a significant influence upon the performance of Mongolian crop farming. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the wind field and heat budget in an alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions

Observational data collected in the Lake Tekapo hydro catchment of the Southern Alps in New Zealand are used to analyse the wind and temperature fields in the alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions. Measurements from surface stations, pilot balloon and tethersonde soundings, Doppler sodar and an instrumented light aircraft provide evidence of multi-scale interacting wind systems, ranging from microscale slope winds to mesoscale coast-to-basin flows. Thermal forcing of the winds occurred due to differential heating as a consequence of orography and heterogeneous surface features, which is quantified by heat budget and pressure field analysis. The daytime vertical temperature structure was characterised by distinct layering. Features of particular interest are the formation of thermal internal boundary layers due to the lake-land discontinuity and the development of elevated mixed layers. The latter were generated by advective heating from the basin and valley sidewalls by slope winds and by a superimposed valley wind blowing from the basin over Lake Tekapo and up the tributary Godley Valley. Daytime heating in the basin and its tributary valleys caused the development of a strong horizontal temperature gradient between the basin atmosphere and that over the surrounding landscape, and hence the development of a mesoscale heat low over the basin. After noon, air from outside the basin started flowing over mountain saddles into the basin causing cooling in the lowest layers, whereas at ridge top height the horizontal air temperature gradient between inside and outside the basin continued to increase. In the early evening, a more massive intrusion of cold air caused rapid cooling and a transition to a rather uniform slightly stable stratification up to about 2000 m agl. The onset time of this rapid cooling varied about 1-2 h between observation sites and was probably triggered by the decay of up-slope winds inside the basin, which previously countered the intrusion of air over the surrounding ridges. The intrusion of air from outside the basin continued until about mid-night, when a northerly mountain wind from the Godley Valley became dominant. The results illustrate the extreme complexity that can be caused by the operation of thermal forcing processes at a wide range of spatial scales.

Benefits, harms and costs of screening mammography in women 70 years and over: a systematic review

Objective: To assess the (i) benefits, (ii) harms and (iii) costs of continuing mammographic screening for women 70 years and over. Data sources and synthesis: (i) We conducted a MEDLINE search (1966 - July 2000) for decision-analytic models estimating life-expectancy gains from screening in older women. The five studies meeting the inclusion criteria were critically appraised using standard criteria. We estimated relative benefit from each model's estimate of effectiveness of screening in older women relative to that in women aged 50-69 years using the same model. (ii) With data from BreastScreen Queensland, we constructed balance sheets of the consequences of screening for women in 10-year age groups (40-49 to 80-89 years), and (iii) we used a validated model to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of extending screening to women 70 years and over. Results: For women aged 70-79 years, the relative benefit was estimated as 40%-72%, and 18%-62% with adjustment for the impact of screening on quality of life. For women over 80 years the relative benefit was about a third, and with quality-of-life adjustment only 14%, that in women aged 50-69 years. (ii) Of 10 000 Australian women participating in ongoing screening, about 400 are recalled for further testing, and, depending on age, about 70-112 undergo biopsy and about 19-80 cancers are detected. (iii) Cost-effectiveness estimates for extending the upper age limit for mammographic screening from 69 to 79 years range from $8119 to $27 751 per quality-adjusted life-year saved, which compares favourably with extending screening to women aged 40-49 years (estimated at between $24 000 and $65 000 per life-year saved). Conclusions: Women 70 years and over, in consultation with their healthcare providers, may want to decide for themselves whether to continue mammographic screening. Decision-support materials are needed for women in this age group.

The role of transaction costs and institutional forces in the outsourcing of recruitment

This study investigated reasons for the outsourcing of a core HRM function, recruitment. Drawing from transaction costs and institutional theories, it was hypothesised that the pressure to minimise transaction costs and the presence of industry trends towards outsourcing would be positively associated with the outsourcing of recruitment. Survey data were gathered from 1I 7 HR professionals in Australia. Both hypotheses were partially supported. Specifically, the outsourcing of recruitment activities was positively associated with trust in the agency supplying the recruitment service and with the need to reduce internal labour but not fixed costs. With regard to institutional theory, the outsourcing of recruitment was positively associated with mimetic but not coercive forces. The study concludes that although most assumptions about recruitment agency use are expressed in economic terms, in reality, HRM practices are also influenced by forces exerted by the institutional environment in which organisations are located.

Practical and economic advantages of choice feeding systems for laying poultry

Poultry can be managed under different feeding systems, depending on the husbandry skills and the feed available. These systems include the following: (1) a complete dry feed offered as a mash ad libitum; (2) the same feed offered as pellets or crumbles ad libitum; (3) a complete feed with added whole grain; (4) a complete wet feed given once or twice a day; (5) a complete feed offered on a restricted basis; (6) choice feeding. Of all these, an interesting alternative to offering complete diets is choice feeding which can be applied on both a small or large commercial scale. Under choice feeding or free-choice feeding birds are usually offered a choice between three types of feedstuffs: (a) an energy source (e.g. maize, rice bran, sorghum or wheat); (b) a protein source (e.g. soyabean meal, meat meal, fish meal or coconut meal) plus vitamins and minerals and (c), in the case of laying hens, calcium in granular form (i.e. oyster-shell grit). This system differs from the modern commercial practice of offering a complete diet comprising energy and protein sources, ground and mixed together. Under the complete diet system, birds are mainly only able to exercise their appetite for energy. When the environmental temperature varies, the birds either over- or under-consume protein and calcium. The basic principle behind practising choice feeding with laying hens is that individual hens are able to select from the various feed ingredients on offer and compose their own diet, according to their actual needs and production capacity. A choice-feeding system is of particular importance to small poultry producers in developing countries, such as Indonesia, because it can substantially reduce the cost of feed. The system is flexible and can be constructed in such a way that the various needs of a flock of different breeds, including village chickens, under different climates can be met. The system also offers a more effective way to use home-produced grain, such as maize, and by-products, such as rice bran, in developing countries. Because oyster-shell grit is readily available in developing countries at lower cost than limestone, the use of cheaper oyster-shell grit can further benefit small-holders in these countries. These benefits apart, simpler equipment suffices when designing and building a feed mixer on the farm, and transport costs are lower. If whole (unground) grain is used, the intake of which is accompanied by increased efficiency of feed utilisation, the costs of grinding, mixing and many of the handling procedures associated with mash and pellet preparation are eliminated. The choice feedstuffs can all be offered in the current feed distribution systems, either by mixing the ingredients first or by using a bulk bin divided into three compartments.

Farm exposures, parental occupation, and risk of Ewing's sarcoma in Australia: a national case-control study

Objective: It has been suggested that parental occupation, particularly farming, increased the risk of Ewing's sarcoma in the offspring. In a national case-control study we examined the relationship between farm and other parental occupational exposures and the risk of cancer in the offspring. Methods: Cases were 106 persons with confirmed Ewing's sarcoma or peripheral primitive neuroectodermal tumor. Population-based controls (344) were selected randomly via telephone. Information was collected by interview (84% face-to-face). Results: We found an excess of case mothers who worked on farms at conception and/or pregnancy (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-12.0) and a slightly smaller excess of farming fathers; more case mothers usually worked as laborers, machine operators, or drivers (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 0.9-3.9). Risk doubled for those whose mothers handled pesticides and insecticides, or fathers who handled solvents and glues, and oils and greases. Further, more cases lived on farms (OR = 1.6, 95% CI 0.9-2.8). In the 0-20 years group, the risk doubled for those who ever lived on a farm (OR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.0-3.9), and more than tripled for those with farming fathers at conception and/or pregnancy (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.0-11.9). Conclusions: Our data support the general hypothesis of an association of Ewing's sarcoma family of tumors with farming, particularly at younger ages, who represent the bulk of cases, and are more likely to share etiologic factors.

Stock splits: Implications for investor trading costs

Stock splits are known to have a negative effect on market quality—while stock prices adjust consistently with the split's scale, the bid/ask spread and market depth do not. Two possible explanations for the relative increase in spread are that (i) splits cause an increase in market maker costs that are passed along to investors or (ii) splits provide a mechanism for market makers to increase excess profits. Using a robust econometric methodology, we find evidence of the latter, which raises questions about the motivation of the splitting practice. We also document that while NASDAQ spreads appear to adjust more fully than those of NYSE/AMEX stocks, NASDAQ spreads are higher in general.

Energetic costs of tail loss in a montane scincid lizard

Most species of lizards will shed their tails at the point of contact when grasped by a predator. We investigated the energetic consequences of tail loss by measuring lipids in a scincid lizard that stores energy in its tail for reproduction. Most of the lipids were concentrated in the proximal portion of the tail. Thus, partial tail loss may not severely affect energy stores if the distal portion of the tail is shed in predatory encounters. We also found that the width of the tail was a reliable non-invasive index of energy reserves in this species. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards the on-farm conservation of the assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) (Hemiptera : Reduviidae) during winter using crop plants as refuges

Habitat instability associated with seasonal crop succession in broad-acre farming systems presents a problem for the conservation and utilisation of beneficial insects in annual field crops. The present paper describes two experiments used to measure the potential of seven plant species to be utilised as winter refuges to support and conserve the predatory bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker). In the first experiment, replicated plots of canola (Brassica napus ), red salvia (Salvia coccinea ), niger (Guizotia abyssinica ), linseed (Linum usitatissimum ), lupins (Lupinus angustifolius ), and lucerne (Medicago falcata ) were planted in a randomized experiment during Autumn 1998. Upon crop establishment, adults and nymphs of P. plagipennis were released into treatment plots and their numbers were assessed, along with those of their potential prey, throughout the ensuing winter months. Post-release sampling suggested that canola and niger retained a proportion of adult P. plagipennis , while niger, lucerne and canola retained some nymphs. The other plant species failed to support P. plagipennis nymphs and adults postrelease. In the second experiment, niger was compared with two lines of sunflower (Helianthus annus ). Both sunflower lines harboured significantly higher (P < 0.05) densities of P. plagipennis nymphs than did niger. The more successful refuge treatments (sunflower, niger and canola) had an abundance of yellow flowers that were attractive to pollinating insects, which served as supplementary prey on which P. plagipennis were observed to feed. Sunflower and niger also supported high densities of the prey insect Creontiades dilutus (Stal) and provided protective leafy canopies which supplied shelter during the winter months. The potential and limitations for using each plant species as a winter refuge to retain P. plagipennis during winter are discussed.

Numerical simulations of wind and temperature structure within an Alpine lake basin, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

High-resolution numerical model simulations have been used to study the local and mesoscale thermal circulations in an Alpine lake basin. The lake (87 km(2)) is situated in the Southern Alps, New Zealand and is located in a glacially excavated rock basin surrounded by mountain ranges that reach 3000 m in height. The mesoscale model used (RAMS) is a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model with a level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The model demonstrates that thermal forcing at local (within the basin) and regional (coast-to-basin inflow) scales drive the observed boundary-layer airflow in the lake basin during clear anticyclonic summertime conditions. The results show that the lake can modify (perturb) both the local and regional wind systems. Following sunrise, local thermal circulations dominate, including a lake breeze component that becomes embedded within the background valley wind system. This results in a more divergent flow in the basin extending across the lake shoreline. However, a closed lake breeze circulation is neither observed nor modelled. Modelling results indicate that in the latter part of the day when the mesoscale (coast-to-basin) inflow occurs, the relatively cold pool of lake air in the basin can cause the intrusion to decouple from the surface. Measured data provide qualitative and quantitative support for the model results.