Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized-expected-utility theories

Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.

The N-15 natural abundance (delta N-15) of ecosystem samples reflects measures of water availability

We assembled a globally-derived data set for site-averaged foliar delta(15)N, the delta(15)N of whole surface mineral soil and corresponding site factors (mean annual rainfall and temperature, latitude, altitude and soil pH). The delta(15)N of whole soil was related to all of the site variables (including foliar delta(15)N) except altitude and, when regressed on latitude and rainfall, provided the best model of these data, accounting for 49% of the variation in whole soil delta(15)N. As single linear regressions, site-averaged foliar delta(15)N was more strongly related to rainfall than was whole soil delta(15)N. A smaller data set showed similar, negative correlations between whole soil delta(15)N, site-averaged foliar delta(15)N and soil moisture variations during a single growing season. The negative correlation between water availability (measured here by rainfall and temperature) and soil or plant delta(15)N fails at the landscape scale, where wet spots are delta(15)N-enriched relative to their drier surroundings. Here we present global and seasonal data, postulate a proximate mechanism for the overall relationship between water availability and ecosystem delta(15)N and, newly, a mechanism accounting for the highly delta(15)N-depleted values found in the foliage and soils of many wet/cold ecosystems. These hypotheses are complemented by documentation of the present gaps in knowledge, suggesting lines of research which will provide new insights into terrestrial N-cycling. Our conclusions are consistent with those of Austin and Vitousek (1998) that foliar (and soil) delta(15)N appear to be related to the residence time of whole ecosystem N.

Adolescent reputation enhancement: Differentiating delinquent, nondelinquent, and at-risk youths

This research reports the findings of two studies conducted to measure and then investigate differences between delinquent, nondelinquent, and at-risk youths' orientations towards reputation enhancement. In the first study, concerning item selection and scale development, the factor structure and content validity of a potential Reputation Enhancement Scale were tested by examining the item responses of the scale completed by 230 high-school students. In the second study, the scale was validated by comparing the item responses of 80 delinquent, 90 at-risk, and 90 nondelinquent adolescents with the responses of the original students. The instrument was found to be reliable (alphas from .64 to .92), indicating that the factors are dependable across different samples, and the coefficients of congruence were sufficiently high to investigate meaningful group differences. Three second-order factors (Conforming Reputation, Nonconforming Reputation, Self-presentation) were derived from the 15 first-order factors. Although multivariate analyses revealed significant differences between the reputational orientations of delinquent, at-risk, and nondelinquent participants, the self-presentation second-order factor did not differentiate the three groups.

Cytomegalovirus evasion of natural killer cell responses

Natural killer (NK) cells are an important component of the innate cellular immune system. They are particularly important during the early immune responses following virus infection, prior to the induction of cytotoxic T cells (CTL). Unlike CTL, which recognize specific peptides displayed on the surface of cells by class I MHC, NK cells respond to aberrant expression of cell surface molecules, in particular class I MHC, in a non-specific manner. Thus, cells expressing low levels of surface class I MHC are susceptible to recognition by NK cells, with concomitant triggering of cytolytic and cytokine-mediated responses. Many viruses, including the cytomegaloviruses, downregulate cell surface MHC class I: this is likely to provide protection against CTL-mediated clearance of infected cells, but may also render infected cells sensitive to NK-cell attack. This review focuses upon cytomegalovirus-encoded proteins that are believed to promote evasion of NK-cell-mediated immunity. The class I MHC homologues, encoded by all cytomegaloviruses characterised to date, have been implicated as molecular 'decoys', which may mimic the ability of cellular MHC class I to inhibit NK-cell functions. Results from studies in vitro are not uniform, but in general they support the proposal that the class I homologues engage inhibitory receptors from NK cells and other cell types that normally interact with cellular class I. Consistent with this, in vivo studies of murine cytomegalovirus indicate that the class I homologue is required for efficient evasion of NK-cell-mediated clearance. Recently a second murine cytomegalovirus protein, a C-C chemokine homologue, has been implicated as promoting evasion of NK and T-cell-mediated clearance in vivo.

HIV risk behaviour and prevention in prison: a bleach programme for inmates in NSW

One hundred and eighty-one inmates in AIDS education courses were surveyed about their risk behaviour and access to disinfectants for syringe cleaning in 1993, Overall, 40% of respondents reported HIV risk behaviour in prison. One-quarter of respondents reported injecting, of whom three-quarters reported sharing syringes in prison. Most respondents who shared syringes reported cleaning them with disinfectants (96%), even though only one-third reported having easy access to disinfectants. One-sixth of respondents reported sharing tattooing equipment, of whom two-thirds reported using a disinfectant to clean the tattoo needle. Few respondents reported fellatio (8%) or anal intercourse (4%) in prison. Although some respondents faced difficulty in obtaining disinfectants, almost all respondents cleaned syringes with bleach when sharing. High levels of risk behaviour in prison might be reduced by methadone maintenance and condom programmes. A trial of strict one-for-one syringe exchange warrants consideration.

Human and murine cytomegalovirus evasion of cytotoxic T lymphocyte and natural killer cell-mediated immune responses

Herpesviruses, such as human and murine cytomegalovirus, possess an impressive array of genes believed to assist in virus survival against the host immune response. In this review, we cover the rapidly growing area of cytomegalovirus evasion of cellular immunity, specifically cytotoxic T lymphocytes and natural killer cells. The proposed mechanisms of action of viral proteins involved in blocking peptide presentation to CD8(+) T cells, namely, interference with peptide generation, inhibition of peptide assembly with class I MHC and retention/destabilization of class I MHC complexes, are described. In addition, recent evidence implicating the viral class I MHC-like proteins as inhibitors of natural killer cell-mediated clearance is reviewed, (C) 1998 Academic Press.

m144, a murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV)-encoded major histocompatibility complex class I homologue, confers tumor resistance to natural killer cell-mediated rejection

Until now, it has been unclear whether murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV)-encoded protein m144 directly regulates natural killer (NK) cell effector function and whether the effects of m144 are only strictly evident in the context of MCMV infection. We have generated clones of the transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP)-2-deficient RMA-S T lymphoma cell line and its parent cell line, RMA, that stably express significant and equivalent levels of m144. In vivo NK cell-mediated rejection of RMA-S-m144 lymphomas was reduced compared with rejection of parental or mock-transfected RMA-S clones, indicating the ability of m144 to regulate NK cell-mediated responses in vivo. Significantly, the accumulation of NK cells in the peritoneum was reduced in mice challenged with RMA-S-m144, as was the lytic activity of NK cells recovered from the peritoneum. Expression of m144 on RMA-S cells also conferred resistance to cytotoxicity mediated in vitro by interleukin 2-activated adherent spleen NK cells. In summary, the data demonstrate that m144 confers some protection from NK cell effector function mediated in the absence of target cell class I expression, but that in vivo the major effect of m144 is to regulate NK cell accumulation and activation at the site of immune challenge.

Who fails to complete tuberculosis treatment? Temporal trends and risk factors for treatment interruption in a community-based directly observed therapy programme in a rural district of South Africa

SETTING: Hlabisa Tuberculosis Programme, Hlabisa, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in and risk factors for interruption of tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were extracted from the control programme database starting in 1991. Temporal trends in treatment interruption are described; independent risk factors for treatment interruption were determined with a multiple logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for treatment interruption were constructed for patients treated in 1994-1995. RESULTS: Overall 629 of 3610 surviving patients (17%) failed to complete treatment; this proportion increased from 11% (n = 79) in 1991/1992 to 22% (n = 201) in 1996. Independent risk factors for treatment interruption were diagnosis between 1994-1996 compared with 1991-1393 (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CT] 1.6-2.4); human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity compared with HIV negativity (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4); supervised by village clinic compared with community health worker (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6); and male versus female sex (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Few patients interrupted treatment during the first 2 weeks, and the treatment interruption rate thereafter was constant at 1% per 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of treatment interruption from this programme has increased recently. The strongest risk factor was year of diagnosis, perhaps reflecting the impact of an increased caseload on programme performance. Ensuring adherence to therapy in communities with a high level of migration remains a challenge even within community-based directly observed therapy programmes.

Increased risk of psychosis in rural-born individuals: An Australian catchment-area study

The aim of the Brisbane Psychosis Study was to examine a range of candidate genetic and nongenetic risk factors in a large, representative sample of patients with psychosis and well controls. The patients (n=310) were drawn from a census conducted as part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. An age and sex-matched well control group (n = 303) was drawn from the same catchment area. Candidate risk factors assessed included migrant status of proband and proband's parents, occupation of father at time of proband's birth, place of birth and place of residence during the first 5 years of life (urbanicity), self-reported pregnancy and birth complications, season of birth and family history. The main analyses were group (cases versus controls) comparisons, with planned subgroup analyses (1) group comparisons for Australian-born subjects only, (2) within-patient comparisons of affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Of the individuals with psychosis, 68% had DSMIII-R schizophrenia. In the main analyses, there were no significant group differences on season of birth, place of birth, place of residency in the first 5 years, occupation of fathers at time of birth or pregnancy and birth complications. Patients had significantly more family members with schizophrenia. Significantly fewer of the patients were migrants or offspring of migrants compared to the controls. When only Australianborn subjects were assessed (n=457), the findings were essentially unchanged apart from a significant excess of cases born in rural sites (chi-square=9.54, df3, p=0.02). There were no significant differences in the risk factors for the comparison involving affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Potential explanations for the inverse urban-rural risk gradient are reviewed. The Stanley Foundation supported this project

Differential tumor surveillance by natural killer (NK) and NKT cells

Natural tumor surveillance capabilities of the host were investigated in six different mouse tumor models where endogenous interleukin (IL)-12. does or does not dictate the efficiency of the innate immune response. Gene-targeted and lymphocyte subset-depleted mice were used to establish the relative importance of natural killer (NK) and NK1.1(+) T (NKT) cells in protection from tumor initiation and metastasis. In the models examined, CD3(-) NK cells were responsible for tumor rejection and protection from metastasis in models where control of major histocompatibility complex class I-deficient tumors was independent of IL-12, A protective role for NKT cells was only observed when tumor rejection required endogenous IL-12 activity. In particular, T cell receptor J alpha 281 gene-targeted mice confirmed a critical function for NKT cells in protection from spontaneous tumors initiated by the chemical carcinogen, methylcholanthrene. This is the first description of an antitumor function for NKT cells in the absence of exogenously administered potent stimulators such as IL-12 or alpha-galactosylceramide.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Risk management for scuba diving operators on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Australia's Great Barrier Reef is one of the world's most popular scuba diving destinations. Unfortunately, a series of recent diving injuries and deaths has tarnished the region's safety record. In particular, media attention surrounding the disappearance of American divers Thomas and Eileen Lonergan has focused attention on dive operators' legal responsibilities and the consequences of failing to discharge their duty of care to customers. This paper briefly examines the relevant Australian law for recreational diving operations, and reviews risk management strategies that may reduce or prevent the occurrence of future problems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cytomegalovirus MHC class I homologues and natural killer

Viruses that establish a persistent infection with their host have evolved numerous strategies to evade the immune system. Consequently, they are useful tools to dissect the complex cellular processes that comprise the immune response. Rapid progress has been made in recent years in defining the role of cellular MHC class I molecules in regulating the response of natural killer (NK) cells. Concomitantly, the roles of the MHC class I homologues encoded by human and mouse cytomegaloviruses in evading or subverting NK cell responses has received considerable interest. This review discusses the results from a number of studies that have pursued the biological function of the viral MHC class I homologues. Based on the evidence from these studies, hypotheses for the possible role of these intriguing molecules are presented. (C) 2000 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).