Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Phobic anxiety in 11 nations: Part I: Dimensional constancy of the five-factor model

The Fear Survey Schedule-III (FSS-III) was administered to a total of 5491 students in Australia, East Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, and Venezuela, and submitted to the multiple group method of confirmatory analysis (MGM) in order to determine the cross-national dimensional constancy of the five-factor model of self-assessed fears originally established in Dutch, British, and Canadian samples. The model comprises fears of bodily injury-illness-death, agoraphobic fears, social fears, fears of sexual and aggressive scenes, and harmless animals fears. Close correspondence between the factors was demonstrated across national samples. In each country, the corresponding scales were internally consistent, were intercorrelated at magnitudes comparable to those yielded in the original samples, and yielded (in 93% of the total number of 55 comparisons) sex differences in line with the usual finding (higher scores for females). In each country, the relatively largest sex differences were obtained on harmless animals fears. The organization of self-assessed fears is sufficiently similar across nations to warrant the use of the same weight matrix (scoring key) for the FSS-III in the different countries and to make cross-national comparisons feasible. This opens the way to further studies that attempt to predict (on an a priori basis) cross-national variations in fear levels with dimensions of national cultures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular analysis of the pathway for the synthesis of thiol tripeptides in the model legume Lotus japonicus

The thiol tripeptides, glutathione (GSH) and homoglutathione (hGSH), perform multiple roles in legumes, including protection against toxicity of free radicals and heavy metals. The three genes involved in the synthesis of GSH and hGSH in the model legume, Lotus japonicus, have been fully characterized and appear to be present as single copies in the genome. The gamma-glutamylcysteine synthetase (gammaecs) gene was mapped on the long arm of chromosome 4 (70.0 centimorgans [cM]) and consists of 15 exons, whereas the glutathione synthetase (gshs) and homoglutathione synthetase (hgshs) genes were mapped on the long arm of chromosome 1 (81.3 cM) and found to be arranged in tandem, with a separation of approximately 8 kb. Both genes consist of 12 exons of exactly the same size (except exon 1, which is similar). Two types of transcripts were detected for the gshs gene, which putatively encode proteins localized in the plastids and cytosol. Promoter regions contain cis-acting regulatory elements that may be involved in the plant's response to light, hormones, and stress. Determination of transcript levels, enzyme activities, and thiol contents in nodules, roots, and leaves revealed that gammaecs and hgshs are expressed in all three plant organs, whereas gshs is significantly functional only in nodules. This strongly suggests an important role of GSH in the rhizobia-legume symbiosis.

Potential of lipid core peptide technology as a novel self-adjuvanting vaccine delivery system for multiple different synthetic peptide immunogens

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a novel self-adjuvanting vaccine delivery system for multiple different synthetic peptide immunogens by use of lipid core peptide (LCP) technology. An LCP formulation incorporating two different protective epitopes of the surface antiphagocytic M protein of group A streptococci (GAS)-the causative agents of rheumatic fever and subsequent rheumatic heart disease-was tested in a murine parenteral immunization and GAS challenge model. Mice were immunized with the LCP-GAS formulation, which contains an M protein amino-terminal type-specific peptide sequence (8830) in combination with a conserved non-host-cross-reactive carboxy-terminal C-region peptide sequence (J8) of the M protein. Our data demonstrated immunogenicity of the LCP-8830-J8 formulation in B10.BR mice when coadministered in complete Freund's adjuvant and in the absence of a conventional adjuvant. In both cases, immunization led to induction of high-titer GAS peptide-specific serum immunoglobulin G antibody responses and induction of highly opsonic antibodies that did not cross-react with human heart tissue proteins. Moreover, mice were completely protected from GAS infection when immunized with LCP-8830-J8 in the presence or absence of a conventional adjuvant. Mice were not protected, however, following immunization with an LCP formulation containing a control peptide from a Schistosoma sp. These data support the potential of LCP technology in the development of novel self-adjuvanting multi-antigen component vaccines and point to the potential application of this system in the development of human vaccines against infectious diseases.

Orientation of the genetic variance-covariance matrix and the fitness surface for multiple male sexually selected traits

Stabilizing selection has been predicted to change genetic variances and covariances so that the orientation of the genetic variance-covariance matrix (G) becomes aligned with the orientation of the fitness surface, but it is less clear how directional selection may change G. Here we develop statistical approaches to the comparison of G with vectors of linear and nonlinear selection. We apply these approaches to a set of male sexually selected cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) of Drosophila serrata. Even though male CHCs displayed substantial additive genetic variance, more than 99% of the genetic variance was orientated 74.9degrees away from the vector of linear sexual selection, suggesting that open-ended female preferences may greatly reduce genetic variation in male display traits. Although the orientation of G and the fitness surface were found to differ significantly, the similarity present in eigenstructure was a consequence of traits under weak linear selection and strong nonlinear ( convex) selection. Associating the eigenstructure of G with vectors of linear and nonlinear selection may provide a way of determining what long-term changes in G may be generated by the processes of natural and sexual selection.

Monitoring green turtles (Chelonia mydas) at a coastal foraging area in Baja California, Mexico: multiple indices to describe population status

From June 1995 to August 2002 we assessed green turtle (Chelonia mydas) population structure and survival, and identified human impact, at Bahia de los Angeles, a large bay that was once the site of the greatest sea turtle harvest rates in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Turtles were captured live with entanglement nets and mortality was quantified through stranding surveys and flipper tag recoveries. A total of 14,820 netting hours (617.5 d) resulted in 255 captures of 200 green turtles. Straight-carapace length and mass ranged from 46.0-100.0 cm (mean = 74.3 +/- 0.7 cm) and 14.5-145.0 kg (mean = 61.5 +/- 1.7 kg), respectively. The size-frequency distribution remained stable during all years and among all capture locations. Anthropogenic-derived injuries ranging from missing flippers to boat propeller scars were present in 4% of captured turtles. Remains of 18 turtles were found at dumpsites, nine stranded turtles were encountered in the study area, and flipper tags from seven turtles were recovered. Survival was estimated at 0.58 for juveniles and 0.97 for adults using a joint live-recapture and dead-recovery model (Burnham model). Low survival among juveniles, declining annual catch per unit effort, and the presence of butchered carcasses indicated human activities continue to impact green turtles at this foraging area.

Use of multiple biomarkers for a molecular diagnosis of prostate cancer

The identification of biomarkers capable of providing a reliable molecular diagnostic test for prostate cancer (PCa) is highly desirabie clinically. We describe here 4 biomarkers, UDP-N-Acetyl-alpha-D-galactosamine transferase (GalNAc-T3; not previously associated with PCa), PSMA, Hepsin and DD3/PCA3, which, in combination, distinguish prostate cancer from benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). GalNAc-T3 was identified as overexpressed in PCa tissues by microarray analysis, confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR and shown immunohistochemically to be localised to prostate epithelial cells with higher expression in malignant cells. Real-time quantitative PCR analysis across 21 PCa and 34 BPH tissues showed 4.6-fold overexpression of GalNAc-T3 (p = 0.005). The noncoding mRNA (DD3/PCA3) was overexpressed 140-fold (p = 0.007) in the cancer samples compared to BPH tissues. Hepsin was overexpressed 21-fold (p = 0.049, whereas the overexpression for PSMA was 66-fold (p = 0.047). When the gene expression data for these 4 biomarkers was combined in a logistic regression model, a predictive index was obtained that distinguished 100% of the PCa samples from all of the BPH samples. Therefore, combining these genes in a real-time PCR assay represents a powerful new approach to diagnosing PCa by molecular profiling. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Multiple directorships and corporate performance in Australian listed companies

How many directorships are too many? Globally, normative advice emphasises the importance of limiting the number of directorships any individual should hold due to the workloads they entail. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this view. Rather, there is a strong tradition of supporting multiple directorships as a mechanism for the firm to co-opt external resources. To explore the issue of director workloads and multiple directorships, we first consider the issues related to multiple directorships and outline the conclusions of extant international and Australian studies into multiple directorships. We then detail our objectives in undertaking this research and our approach to data collection. Our findings indicate that the incidence of multiple directorships in Australian listed companies is low. We also find that many of the apparent examples of multiple directorships are due to related entities, which share common directors and, due to the nature of these entities, have much lower workload requirements. Further, there does not appear to be any relationship between holding multiple directorships and firm financial performance. Finally, we discuss the implications for boards and those interested in governance, particularly the need to ensure governance recommendations and guidelines reflect empirical findings. We offer one solution to address the concerns of boards, investors, other stakeholders and the community regarding multiple directorships: board and individual director evaluations.

Multigradient field-active contour model for multilayer boundary detection of ultrasound rectal wall image

Extraction and reconstruction of rectal wall structures from an ultrasound image is helpful for surgeons in rectal clinical diagnosis and 3-D reconstruction of rectal structures from ultrasound images. The primary task is to extract the boundary of the muscular layers on the rectal wall. However, due to the low SNR from ultrasound imaging and the thin muscular layer structure of the rectum, this boundary detection task remains a challenge. An active contour model is an effective high-level model, which has been used successfully to aid the tasks of object representation and recognition in many image-processing applications. We present a novel multigradient field active contour algorithm with an extended ability for multiple-object detection, which overcomes some limitations of ordinary active contour models—"snakes." The core part in the algorithm is the proposal of multigradient vector fields, which are used to replace image forces in kinetic function for alternative constraints on the deformation of active contour, thereby partially solving the initialization limitation of active contour for rectal wall boundary detection. An adaptive expanding force is also added to the model to help the active contour go through the homogenous region in the image. The efficacy of the model is explained and tested on the boundary detection of a ring-shaped image, a synthetic image, and an ultrasound image. The experimental results show that the proposed multigradient field-active contour is feasible for multilayer boundary detection of rectal wall

Relations between coping and positive and negative outcomes in carers of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS)

This study examined relations between stress and coping predictors and negative and positive outcomes in MS caregiving. A total of 222 carers and their care-recipients completed questionnaires at Time 1 and three months later, Time 2 ( n = 155). Predictors included care-recipient characteristics ( age, time since diagnosis, course and life satisfaction), and Times 1 and 2 carer problems, stress appraisal and coping. Dependent variables were Time 2 negative ( anxiety, depression) and positive outcomes ( life satisfaction, positive affect, benefits). Regressions indicated that, overall, the hypothesised direct effects of stress appraisal and coping strategies on positive and negative outcomes were supported. The hypothesised stress-buffering effects of positive reframing coping were also supported. All but one of the coping strategies were related to both positive and negative outcomes; specifically, practical assistance coping emerged as a unique predictor of distress. Of the model predictors, care-recipient life satisfaction emerged as the strongest and most consistent predictor of both positive and negative outcomes except benefit finding. Findings support the role of care-recipient characteristics and the carer's appraisal and coping processes in shaping both positive and negative outcomes. The guiding framework and findings have the potential to inform interventions designed to promote well-being in carers.

"We do it, but they don't": Multiple categorizations and work team communication

The present study adopted an intergroup approach to information sharing and ratings of work team communication in a public hospital (N = 142) undergoing large-scale restructuring. Consistent with predictions, ratings of communication followed a double ingroup serving bias: while team members reported sending about the same levels of information to double ingroup members (same work team/same occupational group) as they did to partial ingroup members (same work team/different occupational group), they reported receiving less information from partial ingroup members than from double ingroup members and rated the communication that they received from partial ingroup members as less effective. We discuss the implication of these results for the management of information sharing and organizational communication.

Genetic and environmental influences on extreme personality dispositions in adolescent female twins

Background: The objective was to determine whether the pattern of environmental and genetic influences on deviant personality scores differs from that observed for the normative range of personality, comparing results in adolescent and adult female twins. Methods: A sample of 2,796 female adolescent twins ascertained from birth records provided Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire data. The average age of the sample was 17.0 years ( S. D. 2.3). Genetic analyses of continuous and extreme personality scores were conducted. Results were compared for 3,178 adult female twins. Results: Genetic analysis of continuous traits in adolescent female twins were similar to findings in adult female twins, with genetic influences accounting for between 37% and 44% of the variance in Extraversion (Ex), Neuroticism (N), and Social Non-Conformity (SNC), with significant evidence of shared environmental influences (19%) found only for SNC in the adult female twins. Analyses of extreme personality characteristics, defined categorically, in the adolescent data and replicated in the adult female data, yielded estimates for high N and high SNC that deviated substantially (p < .05) from those obtained in the continuous trait analyses, and provided suggestive evidence that shared family environment may play a more important role in determining personality deviance than has been previously found when personality is viewed continuously. However, multiple-threshold models that assumed the same genetic and environmental determinants of both normative range variation and extreme scores gave acceptable fits for each personality dimension. Conclusions: The hypothesis of differences in genetic or environmental factors responsible for N and SNC among female twins with scores in the extreme versus normative ranges was partially supported, but not for Ex.

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.

Customised birthweight: Coefficients for an Australian population and validation of the model

Background: Published birthweight references in Australia do not fully take into account constitutional factors that influence birthweight and therefore may not provide an accurate reference to identify the infant with abnormal growth. Furthermore, studies in other regions that have derived adjusted (customised) birthweight references have applied untested assumptions in the statistical modelling. Aims: To validate the customised birthweight model and to produce a reference set of coefficients for estimating a customised birthweight that may be useful for maternity care in Australia and for future research. Methods: De-identified data were extracted from the clinical database for all births at the Mater Mother's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, between January 1997 and June 2005. Births with missing data for the variables under study were excluded. In addition the following were excluded: multiple pregnancies, births less than 37 completed week's gestation, stillbirths, and major congenital abnormalities. Multivariate analysis was undertaken. A double cross-validation procedure was used to validate the model. Results: The study of 42 206 births demonstrated that, for statistical purposes, birthweight is normally distributed. Coefficients for the derivation of customised birthweight in an Australian population were developed and the statistical model is demonstrably robust. Conclusions: This study provides empirical data as to the robustness of the model to determine customised birthweight. Further research is required to define where normal physiology ends and pathology begins, and which segments of the population should be included in the construction of a customised birthweight standard.