66 resultados para Monte-Carlo Simulation Method


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In this paper we analyzed the adsorption of gases and vapors on graphitised thermal carbon black by using a modified DFT-lattice theory, in which we assume that the behavior of the first layer in the adsorption film is different from those of second and higher layers. The effects of various parameters on the topology of the adsorption isotherm were first investigated, and the model was then applied in the analysis of adsorption data of numerous substances on carbon black. We have found that the first layer in the adsorption film behaves differently from the second and higher layers in such a way that the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction energy in the first layer is less than that of second and higher layers, and the same is observed for the partition function. Furthermore, the adsorbate-adsorbate and adsorbate-adsorbent interaction energies obtained from the fitting are consistently lower than the corresponding values obtained from the viscosity data and calculated from the Lorentz-Berthelot rule, respectively.

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A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

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Background: Major depression is the largest single cause of nonfatal disease burden in Australia. Effective drug and psychological treatments exist, yet are underused. Objective: To quantify the burden of disease currently averted in people seeking care for major depression and the amount of disease burden that could be averted in these people under optimal episodic and maintenance treatment strategies. Design: Modeling impact of current and optimal treatment strategies based on secondary analysis of mental health survey data, studies of the natural history of major depression, and meta-analyses of effectiveness data. Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainty in the model. Setting: The cohort of Australian adults experiencing an episode of major depression in 2000 are modeled through "what if" scenarios of no treatment, current treatment, and optimal treatment strategies with cognitive behavioral therapy or antidepressant drug treatment. Main Outcome Measure: Disability-Adjusted Life Year. Results: Current episodic treatment averts 9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6%-12%) of the disease burden of major depression in Australian adults. Optimal episodic treatment with cognitive behavioral therapy could avert 28% (95% uncertainty interval, 19%-39%) of this disease burden, and with drugs 24% (95% uncertainty interval, 19%-30%) could be averted. During the 5 years after an episode of major depression, current episodic treatment patterns would avert 13% (95% uncertainty interval, 10%-17%) of Disability-Adjusted Life Years, whereas maintenance drug treatment could avert 50% (95% uncertainty interval, 40%-60%) and maintenance cognitive behavioral therapy could avert 52% (95% uncertainty interval, 42%-64%), even if adherence of around 60% is taken into account. Conclusions: Longer-term maintenance drug or psychological treatment strategies are required to make significant inroads into the large disease burden associated with major depression in the Australian population.

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Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

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In this paper, we present the results of the prediction of the high-pressure adsorption equilibrium of supercritical. gases (Ar, N-2, CH4, and CO2) on various activated carbons (BPL, PCB, and Norit R1 extra) at various temperatures using a density-functional-theory-based finite wall thickness (FWT) model. Pore size distribution results of the carbons are taken from our recent previous work 1,2 using this approach for characterization. To validate the model, isotherms calculated from the density functional theory (DFT) approach are comprehensively verified against those determined by grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation, before the theoretical adsorption isotherms of these investigated carbons calculated by the model are compared with the experimental adsorption measurements of the carbons. We illustrate the accuracy and consistency of the FWT model for the prediction of adsorption isotherms of the all investigated gases. The pore network connectivity problem occurring in the examined carbons is also discussed, and on the basis of the success of the predictions assuming a similar pore size distribution for accessible and inaccessible regions, it is suggested that this is largely related to the disordered nature of the carbon.

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Granulation is one of the fundamental operations in particulate processing and has a very ancient history and widespread use. Much fundamental particle science has occurred in the last two decades to help understand the underlying phenomena. Yet, until recently the development of granulation systems was mostly based on popular practice. The use of process systems approaches to the integrated understanding of these operations is providing improved insight into the complex nature of the processes. Improved mathematical representations, new solution techniques and the application of the models to industrial processes are yielding better designs, improved optimisation and tighter control of these systems. The parallel development of advanced instrumentation and the use of inferential approaches provide real-time access to system parameters necessary for improvements in operation. The use of advanced models to help develop real-time plant diagnostic systems provides further evidence of the utility of process system approaches to granulation processes. This paper highlights some of those aspects of granulation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Nucleation is the first stage in any granulation process where binder liquid first comes into contact with the powder. This paper investigates the nucleation process where binder liquid is added to a fine powder with a spray nozzle. The dimensionless spray flux approach of Hapgood et al. (Powder Technol. 141 (2004) 20) is extended to account for nonuniform spray patterns and allow for overlap of nuclei granules rather than spray drops. A dimensionless nuclei distribution function which describes the effects of the design and operating parameters of the nucleation process (binder spray characteristics, the nucleation area ratio between droplets and nuclei and the powder bed velocity) on the fractional surface area coverage of nuclei on a moving powder bed is developed. From this starting point, a Monte Carlo nucleation model that simulates full nuclei size distributions as a function of the design and operating parameters that were implemented in the dimensionless nuclei distribution function is developed. The nucleation model was then used to investigate the effects of the design and operating parameters on the formed nuclei size distributions and to correlate these effects to changes of the dimensionless nuclei distribution function. Model simulations also showed that it is possible to predict nuclei size distributions beyond the drop controlled nucleation regime in Hapgood's nucleation regime map. Qualitative comparison of model simulations and experimental nucleation data showed similar shapes of the nuclei size distributions. In its current form, the nucleation model can replace the nucleation term in one-dimensional population balance models describing wet granulation processes. Implementation of more sophisticated nucleation kinetics can make the model applicable to multi-dimensional population balance models.

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We present a new version of non-local density functional theory (NL-DFT) adapted to description of vapor adsorption isotherms on amorphous materials like non-porous silica. The novel feature of this approach is that it accounts for the roughness of adsorbent surface. The solid–fluid interaction is described in the same framework as in the case of fluid–fluid interactions, using the Weeks–Chandler–Andersen (WCA) scheme and the Carnahan–Starling (CS) equation for attractive and repulsive parts of the Helmholtz free energy, respectively. Application to nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherms on non-porous silica LiChrospher Si-1000 at their boiling points, recently published by Jaroniec and co-workers, has shown an excellent correlative ability of our approach over the complete range of pressures, which suggests that the surface roughness is mostly the reason for the observed behavior of adsorption isotherms. From the analysis of these data, we found that in the case of nitrogen adsorption short-range interactions between oxygen atoms on the silica surface and quadrupole of nitrogen molecules play an important role. The approach presented in this paper may be further used in quantitative analysis of adsorption and desorption isotherms in cylindrical pores such as MCM-41 and carbon nanotubes.

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In this paper, we investigate the effects of various potential models in the description of vapor–liquid equilibria (VLE) and adsorption of simple gases on highly graphitized thermal carbon black. It is found that some potential models proposed in the literature are not suitable for the description of VLE (saturated gas and liquid densities and the vapor pressure with temperature). Simple gases, such as neon, argon, krypton, xenon, nitrogen, and methane are studied in this paper. To describe the isotherms on graphitized thermal carbon black correctly, the surface mediation damping factor introduced in our recent publication should be used to calculate correctly the fluid–fluid interaction energy between particles close to the surface. It is found that the damping constant for the noble gases family is linearly dependent on the polarizability, suggesting that the electric field of the graphite surface has a direct induction effect on the induced dipole of these molecules. As a result of this polarization by the graphite surface, the fluid–fluid interaction energy is reduced whenever two particles are near the surface. In the case of methane, we found that the damping constant is less than that of a noble gas having the similar polarizability, while in the case of nitrogen the damping factor is much greater and this could most likely be due to the quadrupolar nature of nitrogen.

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Adsorption of nitrogen in spherical pores of FDU-1 silica at 77 K is considered by means of a nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT) accounting for a disordered structure of pore walls. Pore size distribution analysis of various FDU-1 samples subject to different temperatures of calcination revealed three distinct groups of pores. The principal group of pores is identified as ordered spherical mesopores connected with each other by smaller interconnecting pores and irregular micropores present in the mesopore walls. To account for the entrances (connecting pores) into spherical mesopores, a concept of solid mass distribution with respect to the apparent density was introduced. It is shown that the introduction of the aforementioned distribution was sufficient to quantitatively describe experimental adsorption isotherms over the entire range of relative pressures spanning six decades.

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In this paper, we study the surface heterogeneity and the surface mediation on the intermolecular potential energy for nitrogen adsorption on graphitized thermal carbon black (GTCB). The surface heterogeneity is modeled as the random distribution of effective carbonyl functional groups on the graphite surface. The molecular parameters and the discrete charges of this carbonyl group are taken from Jorgensen, et al. (J. Am. Chem. Soc., (1984) 106, 6638) while those for nitrogen (dispersive parameters and discrete charges) are taken from Murthy et al. (Mol. Phys., (1983) 50, 531) in our Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation. The solid surface mediation in the reduction of intermolecular potential energy between two fluid molecules was taken from a recent work by Do et al. (Langmuir, (2004) 20, 7623). Our simulation results accounting for the surface heterogeneity and surface mediation on intermolecular potential energy were compared with the experimental data of nitrogen at 77 and 90 K. The solid-fluid dispersive parameters are determined from the Lorentz-Berthelot (LB) rule. The fraction of the graphite surface covered with carbonyl functional groups was then derived from the consideration of the Henry constant, and for the data of Kruk et al. (Langmuir, (1999) 15, 1435) we have found that 1% of their GTCB surface is covered with effective carbonyl functional groups. The damping constant, due to surface mediation, was determined from the consideration of the portion of the adsorption isotherm where the first layer is being completed, and it was found to take a value of 0.0075. With these parameters, we have found that the GCMC simulation results describe the data over the complete range of pressure substantially better than any other MC models in the literature. The implication of this work is demonstrated with local adsorption isotherms of 10 and 20 A slit pores. One was obtained without allowance for surface mediation, while the other correctly accounts for these factors. The two local isotherms differ substantially, and the implication is that if we used incorrect local isotherms (i.e. without the surface mediation) the pore size distribution would be incorrectly derived.

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In this paper, we present an analysis of argon adsorption in cylindrical pores having amorphous silica structure by means of a nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT). In the modeling, we account for the radial and longitudinal density distributions, which allow us to consider the interface between the liquidlike and vaporlike fluids separated by a hemispherical meniscus in the canonical ensemble. The Helmholtz free energy of the meniscus was determined as a function of pore diameter. The canonical NLDFT simulations show the details of density rearrangement at the vaporlike and liquidlike spinodal points. The limits of stability of the smallest bridge and the smallest bubble were also determined with the canonical NLDFT. The energy of nucleation as a function of the bulk pressure and the pore diameter was determined with the grand canonical NLDFT using an additional external potential field. It was shown that the experimentally observed reversibility of argon adsorption isotherms at its boiling point up to the pore diameter of 4 nm is possible if the potential barrier of 22kT is overcome due to density fluctuations.

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A new approach is developed to analyze the thermodynamic properties of a sub-critical fluid adsorbed in a slit pore of activated carbon. The approach is based on a representation that an adsorbed fluid forms an ordered structure close to a smoothed solid surface. This ordered structure is modelled as a collection of parallel molecular layers. Such a structure allows us to express the Helmholtz free energy of a molecular layer as the sum of the intrinsic Helmholtz free energy specific to that layer and the potential energy of interaction of that layer with all other layers and the solid surface. The intrinsic Helmholtz free energy of a molecular layer is a function (at given temperature) of its two-dimensional density and it can be readily obtained from bulk-phase properties, while the interlayer potential energy interaction is determined by using the 10-4 Lennard-Jones potential. The positions of all layers close to the graphite surface or in a slit pore are considered to correspond to the minimum of the potential energy of the system. This model has led to accurate predictions of nitrogen and argon adsorption on carbon black at their normal boiling points. In the case of adsorption in slit pores, local isotherms are determined from the minimization of the grand potential. The model provides a reasonable description of the 0-1 monolayer transition, phase transition and packing effect. The adsorption of nitrogen at 77.35 K and argon at 87.29 K on activated carbons is analyzed to illustrate the potential of this theory, and the derived pore-size distribution is compared favourably with that obtained by the Density Functional Theory (DFT). The model is less time-consuming than methods such as the DFT and Monte-Carlo simulation, and most importantly it can be readily extended to the adsorption of mixtures and capillary condensation phenomena.

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Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations were applied to the adsorption of SPCE model water in finite graphitic pores with different configurations of carbonyl functional groups on only one surface and several pore sizes. It was found that almost all finite pores studied exhibit capillary condensation behaviour preceded by adsorption around the functional groups. Desorption showed the reverse transitions from a filled to a near empty pore resulting in a clear hysteresis loop in all pores except for some of the configurations of the 1.0nm pore. Carbonyl configurations had a strong effect on the filling pressure of all pores except, in some cases, in 1.0nm pores. A decrease in carbonyl neighbour density would result in a higher filling pressure. The emptying pressure was negligibly affected by the configuration of functional groups. Both the filling and emptying pressures increased with increasing pore size but the effect on the emptying pressure was much less. At pressures lower than the pore filling pressure, the adsorption of water was shown to have an extremely strong dependence on the neighbour density with adsorption changing from Type IV to Type III to linear as the neighbour density decreased. The isosteric heat was also calculated for these configurations to reveal its strong dependence on the neighbour density. These results were compared with literature experimental results for water and carbon black and found to qualitatively agree.

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Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.