A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

The modeling of turbulent reactive flows based on multiple mapping conditioning

A new modeling approach-multiple mapping conditioning (MMC)-is introduced to treat mixing and reaction in turbulent flows. The model combines the advantages of the probability density function and the conditional moment closure methods and is based on a certain generalization of the mapping closure concept. An equivalent stochastic formulation of the MMC model is given. The validity of the closuring hypothesis of the model is demonstrated by a comparison with direct numerical simulation results for the three-stream mixing problem. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

The tree cut and merge algorithm for estimation of network reliability

This article presents Monte Carlo techniques for estimating network reliability. For highly reliable networks, techniques based on graph evolution models provide very good performance. However, they are known to have significant simulation cost. An existing hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the time space) is available to speed up the simulations; however, there are difficulties with optimizing the important parameter associated with this scheme. To overcome these difficulties, a new hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the edge set) is proposed in this article. The proposed scheme shows orders of magnitude improvement of performance over the existing techniques in certain classes of network. It also provides reliability bounds with little overhead.

Are Ichthyosporea animals or fungi? Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of elongation factor 1α of Ichthyophonus irregularis

Ichthyosporea is a recently recognized group of morphologically simple eukaryotes, many of which cause disease in aquatic organisms. Ribosomal RNA sequence analyses place Ichthyosporea near the divergence of the animal and fungal lineages, but do not allow resolution of its exact phylogenetic position. Some of the best evidence for a specific grouping of animals and fungi (Opisthokonta) has come from elongation factor 1alpha, not only phylogenetic analysis of sequences but also the presence or absence of short insertions and deletions. We sequenced the EF-1alpha gene from the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus irregularis and determined its phylogenetic position using neighbor-joining, parsimony and Bayesian methods. We also sequenced EF-1alpha genes from four chytrids to provide broader representation within fungi. Sequence analyses and the presence of a characteristic 12 amino acid insertion strongly indicate that I. irregularis is a member of Opisthokonta, but do not resolve whether I. irregularis is a specific relative of animals or of fungi. However, the EF-1alpha of I. irregularis exhibits a two amino acid deletion heretofore reported only among fungi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Adsorption of supercritical fluids in non-porous and porous carbons: analysis of adsorbed phase volume and density

In this paper, we revisit the surface mass excess in adsorption studies and investigate the role of the volume of the adsorbed phase and its density in the analysis of supercritical gas adsorption in non-porous as well as microporous solids. For many supercritical fluids tested (krypton, argon, nitrogen, methane) on many different carbonaceous solids, it is found that the volume of the adsorbed phase is confined mostly to a geometrical volume having a thickness of up to a few molecular diameters. At high pressure the adsorbed phase density is also found to be very close to but never equal or greater than the liquid phase density. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of multicomponent adsorption kinetics on activated carbon

An integrated mathematical model for the kinetics of multicomponent adsorption on microporous carbon was developed. Transport in this bidisperse solid is represented by balance equations in the macropore and micropore phases, in which gas-phase diffusion dominates the mass transfer in the macropores, with the phenomenological diffusivities represented by the generalized Maxwell-Stefan (GMS) formulation. Viscous flow also contributes to the macropore fluxes and is included in the MS expressions. Diffusion of the adsorbed phase controls the mass transfer in the micro ore phase, p which is also described in a similar way by the MS method. The adsorption isotherms are represented by a new heterogeneous modified vacancy solution theory formulation of adsorption, which has proved to be a robust method for adsorption on activated carbons. The model is applied to the coadsorption and codesorption of C2H6 and C3H8 on Ajax and Norit carbon, as well as the displacement on Ajax carbon. The effect of the viscous flow in the macropore phase is not significant for the cases studied. The model accurately predicts the overshoot behavior and rollup of C2H6 during coadsorption. The prediction for the heavier compound C3H8 is always satisfactory, though at higher C3H8 mole fraction, the overshoot extent of C2H6 is overpredicted, possibly due to neglect of heat effects.