Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator for 30 countries from 1970-2000. After some plausibility checks, we refer to these series to test a number of hypotheses. Cross correlations reveal a high degree of interconnectedness. Moreover, the number of highly positive correlations has increased over time, whereas the number of low and moderate correlations has decreased. A principal components analysis yields a first component that can be interpreted as the world business cycle. The further components suggest the existence of a Scandinavian-Anglo-Saxon business cycle as well as of another, smaller group of Anglo-Saxon countries that move together. This finding is replicated by a hierarchical cluster analysis, which in addition suggests a closely integrated group of non-Scandinavian and non-English speaking European countries plus Japan and Israel. Furthermore, there is indication for some, albeit weak business cycle integration in Southeast Asia and in South America. The international business cycle is thus found to have a hierarchical structure.

Use of drought response index for identification of drought tolerant genotypes in rainfed lowland rice

Drought is a major constraint for rice production in the rainfed lowlands in Southeast Asia and Eastern India. The breeding programs for tainted lowland rice in these regions focus on adaptation to a range of drought conditions. However, a method of selection of drought tolerant genotypes has not been established and is considered to be one of the constraints faced by rice breeders. Drought response index (DRI) is based on grain yield adjusted for variation in potential yield and flowering date, and has been used recently, but its consistency among drought environments and hence its usefulness is not certain. In order to establish a selection method and subsequently to identify donor parents for drought resistance breeding, a series of experiments with 15 contrasting genotypes was conducted under well-watered and managed drought conditions at two sites for 5 years in Cambodia. Water level in the field was recorded and used to estimate the relative water level (WLREL) around flowering as an index of the severity of water deficit at the time of flowering for each entry. This was used to determine if DRI or yield reduction was due to drought tolerance or related to the amount of available water at flowering, i.e. drought escape. Grain yield reduction due to drought ranged from 12 to 46%. The drought occurred mainly during the reproductive phase, while four experiments had water stress from the early vegetative stage. There was significant variation for water availability around flowering among the nine experiments and this was associated with variation in mean yield reduction. Genotypic variation in DRI was consistent among most experiments, and genotypic mean DRI ranged from -0.54 to 0.47 (LSD 5% = 0.47). Genotypic variation in DRI was not related to WLREL around flowering in the nine environments. It is concluded that selection for DRI under drought conditions would allow breeders to identify donor lines with high drought tolerance as an important component of breeding better adapted varieties for the rainfed lowlands; two genotypes were identified with high DRI and low yield reduction and were subsequently used in the breeding program in Cambodia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A short note on starch and xylem of Colocasia esculenta (taro) in archaeological deposits from Pitcairn Island, southeast Polynesia

We present results of starch analysis of archaeological deposits from Pitcairn Island. High concentrations of starch grains preserved in cell membranes, and xylem tracheary elements, consistent with introduced Colocasia esculenta (taro) were found. Because of limited age control, we are uncertain if the microfossils are prehistoric. Problems associated with identifying taxa with small starch grains in extractions from weathered deposits are highlighted. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Genetic Speciation of Archaeological Fish Bone: A Feasibility Study from Southeast Queensland

Current genetic methods enable highly specific identification of DNA from modern fish bone. The applicability of these methods to the identification of archaeological fish bone was investigated through a study of a sample from late Holocene southeast Queensland sites. The resultant overall success rate of 2% indicates that DNA analysis is, as yet, not feasible for identifying fish bone from any given site. Taphonomic issues influencing the potential of genetic identification methods are raised and discussed in light of this result.

Book review of Mark McGillivray and Gary Smith's (eds.) "Australia and Asia", Melbourne: Oxford University Press, 1997. vii + 248 pp

The political capital invested in Australia's engagement with Asia over the past decade has sparked a lively discussion in the Australian academic community. The back cover of the book under review suggests that there are 'few bigger contemporary issues facing Australia than its relationship with Asia'. If the volume of scholarly material being produced on this issue is any indication, they are right. Like a number of similar works covering the shift in Australian foreign, defence, and trade policies towards Asia over the last decade, this book acknowledges a particular debt of gratitude to the Keating government for establishing regional engagement at the forefront of our national consciousness. Unlike some others however, this book seeks to place Australia's more recent 'discovery' of Asia into a broader historical framework.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

Does habitat modification affect oviposition by the salt marsh mosquito, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse) (Diptera : Culicidae)?

Studies were conducted at sites in south-cast Queensland, Australia, to investigate the effect of habitat modification for mosquito control on the distribution of eggshells of the salt marsh mosquito, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse). Modifications were mainly tunnelling, but an Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) site and a grid-ditched site were also included. There were two separate experimental designs: one was data collected Before and After (BA) modification and the other was for other sites with a Treatment and Control (TC) experimental design. For the BA data, there were significant reductions in eggshells after modification. Eggshells were generally fewer after modification in areas which were close to unrestricted tidal flushing. A sandy substrate and vegetation changes which resulted in reduced Sporobolus virginicus or mixed Sporobolus and Sarcocornia quinqueflora also contributed to the effect. In the TC experiment, there was no effect of modification at the tunnelled site, eggshells were fewer at the OMWM site, but there were more eggshells at the grid-ditched site. There was some general indication that recent oviposition activity was reduced in sites that had been modified, evidenced by a relatively small proportion of young (dark coloured) eggshells.