Change in abundance of dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo and Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia: evidence for large-scale migration

The third in a series of five-yearly aerial surveys for dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf was conducted in July 1999. The first two surveys provided evidence of an apparently stable population of dugongs, with similar to 1000 animals in each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef, and 10000 in Shark Bay. We report estimates of less than 200 for each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef and similar to 14000 for Shark Bay. This is an apparent overall increase in the dugong population over this whole region, but with a distributional shift of animals to the south. The most plausible hypothesis to account for a large component of this apparent population shift is that animals in Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef moved to Shark Bay, most likely after Tropical Cyclone Vance impacted available dugong forage in the northern habitat. Bias associated with survey estimate methodology, and normal changes in population demographics may also have contributed to the change. The movement of large numbers of dugongs over the scale we suggest has important management implications. First, such habitat-driven shifts in regional abundance will need to be incorporated in assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas that aim to protect dugongs and their habitat. Second, in circumstances where aerial surveys are used to estimate relative trends in abundance of dugongs, animal movements of the type we propose could lead to errors in interpretation.

Mate choice in the brown thornbill (Acanthiza pusilla): are settlement decisions, divorce and extrapair mating complementary strategies?

In socially monogamous birds, females may express mate preferences when they first select a breeding partner, through divorce and subsequent breeding dispersal to a new partner and through extrapair mating. We examined settlement patterns, divorce and breeding dispersal in a sedentary Australian passerine, the brown thornbill (Acanthiza pusilla), in relation to two traits known to influence extrapair paternity (male age and male size). Settlement decisions, divorce and territory switching behaviour were all female strategies that reduced their likelihood of breeding with 1-year-old males. Females preferred to settle in territories with 2+ -year-old males, were more likely to divorce 1-year-old males, and only switched territories if they had an opportunity to form a new pair bond with an old male. In contrast, female settlement and divorce decisions were not influenced by male size. Female thornbills obtain a direct benefit from preferring older males as social mates because breeding success improves with male age in brown thornbills. Nevertheless, divorce rates in this species were low (14% of pair bonds were terminated by divorce), and individuals rarely switched territories following the death of a mate. Both of these mating strategies appeared to be primarily constrained by the distance adults moved to initiate a new pair bond (1-2 territories) and by the limited availability of unpaired older males in the immediate neighbourhood.

Chic chicks: the evolution of chick ornamentation in rails

Competition over access to food has led to the evolution of a variety of exaggerated visual and vocal displays in altricial nestling birds. Precocial chicks that are fed by their parents also vary widely in appearance ranging from those with inconspicuous coloration to those with brightly colored bills, fleshy parts, and plumes. These ornaments are lost by the end of the period of parental dependence, suggesting they function in competition over parental care. We use a comparative approach to evaluate which ecological or life-history variables may have favored the evolution of conspicuous ornamentation in precocial chicks. We compiled data on chick morphology, ecology, and social organization of species in the Family Rallidae, a group with highly variable downy chicks. Chick ornamentation in the form of brightly colored bills, fleshy patches, or plumes is observed in 36 of 97 species for which downy chicks are described. Phylogenetic reconstructions suggest that nonornamentation is the ancestral state. Chick ornamentation has evolved multiple times within the Rallidae and is significantly associated with large clutch sizes and polygamous mating systems. Chick ornamentation was also weakly associated with adult ornamentation and adult dimorphism. We argue that these results support the hypothesis that lineages with higher levels of sibling competition are more likely to evolve ornamented chicks.

The life cycle of Paracardicoloides yamagutii Martin, 1974 (Digenea: Sanguinicolidae)

The sanguinicolids Paracardicoloides yamagutii Martin, 1974 and Plethorchis acanthus Martin, 1975 were obtained from their definitive hosts, Anguilla reinhardtii Steindachner and Mugil cephalus Linnaeus (respectively) in the tributaries of the Brisbane River, Queensland, Australia. Two putative sanguinicolid cercariae were collected from a hydrobiid gastropod, Posticobia brazieri Smith, in the same waters. The two cercariae differ markedly in size and the form of their sporocysts. Both putative cercariae develop in the digestive gland of Po. brazieri. The ITS2 rDNA region from these sanguinicolids and a Clinostomum species (utilised as an outgroup due to the close morphological similarities between the cercarial stages of the Clinostomidae and the Sanguinicolidae) were sequenced and aligned. Comparison of the ITS2 sequences showed one cercaria to be that of P. yamagutii. This is the first sanguinicolid life history determined by a molecular method. P. yamagutii is the fourth sanguinicolid known to utilise a freshwater hydrobiid gastropod as its intermediate host. ITS2 rDNA is effective in distinguishing sanguinicolids at the species level.

Optimal design for model discrimination and parameter estimation for itraconazole population pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis patients

Optimal sampling times are found for a study in which one of the primary purposes is to develop a model of the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole in patients with cystic fibrosis for both capsule and solution doses. The optimal design is expected to produce reliable estimates of population parameters for two different structural PK models. Data collected at these sampling times are also expected to provide the researchers with sufficient information to reasonably discriminate between the two competing structural models.

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Animal migration: is there a common migratory syndrome?

Ornithologists, and especially northern hemisphere ornithologists, have traditionally thought of migration as an annual return movement of populations between regular breeding and non-breeding grounds. Problems arise because selection does not ordinarily act on populations and because organisms of many taxa (including birds) are clearly migrants, but fail to undertake movements of the kind described. There are also extensive return movements that are not migratory. I propose that it is more useful to think of migration as a syndrome of behavioral and other traits that function together within individuals, and that such a syndrome provides a common ground across taxa from aphids to albatrosses. Large-scale return movements of populations are one outcome of the syndrome. Similar behavioral and physiological traits serve both to define migration and to provide a test for it. I use two insect (Hemipteran) examples to illustrate migratory syndromes and to demonstrate that, in many migrants, behavior and physiology correlate with life history and morphological traits to form syndromes at two levels. I then compare the two Hemipterans with migration in birds, butterflies, and fish to assess the question of whether there are migratory syndromes in common between these diverse migrants. Syndromes are more similar at the level of behavior than when morphology and life history traits are included. Recognizing syndromes leads to important evolutionary questions concerning migration strategies, trade-offs, the maintenance of genetic variance and the responses of migratory syndromes to both similar and different selective regimes.

Factors affecting female reproductive success and the survival of pouch young in the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby, Petrogale penicillata

Knowledge of factors affecting the survival of individuals and their reproductive success is essential for threatened species management, but studies assessing these factors are lacking for many threatened rock-wallaby species. In this study we investigated the factors influencing the breeding performance of females and the survival of pouch young in a wild colony of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Individuals were trapped between October 2000 and April 2004. More than 50% of the females in the colony were breeding below their full potential and giving birth to only one offspring per year. Most females within the colony bred in synchrony, with a substantial birth peak evident during autumn. Pouch young born in autumn left the pouch during spring and were weaned during summer and autumn when forage was most abundant. Pouch young born during the autumn birth peak or in winter had a substantially higher probability of surviving through to pouch emergence than those born during spring or summer. This study provides demographic parameters that may be used in population models and for comparison with other populations, particularly those that are small and declining. To optimise reproductive success in reintroduction programs, females in good condition and with small pouch young should be released at the end of the wettest season.

Restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structure in a mid-sized marsupial mammal (Petrogale penicillata)

Ecological genetic studies have demonstrated that spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the dispersal of gametes through mating behaviour, can facilitate inbreeding avoidance and strongly influence the structure of populations, particularly in highly philopatric species. Elements of breeding group dynamics, such as strong structuring and sex-biased dispersal among groups, can also minimize inbreeding and positively influence levels of genetic diversity within populations. Rock-wallabies are highly philopatric mid-sized mammals whose strong dependence on rocky terrain has resulted in series of discreet, small colonies in the landscape. Populations show no signs of inbreeding and maintain high levels of genetic diversity despite strong patterns of limited gene flow within and among colonies. We used this species to investigate the importance of mating dispersal and breeding group structure to inbreeding avoidance within a 'small' population. We examined the spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the extent of kinship within breeding groups, and the degree of relatedness among brush-tailed rock-wallaby breeding pairs within a colony in southeast Queensland. Parentage data revealed remarkably restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring for a mid-sized mammal. Breeding groups showed significant levels of female kinship with evidence of male dispersal among groups. We found no evidence for inbreeding avoidance through mate choice; however, anecdotal data suggest the importance of life history traits to inbreeding avoidance between first-degree relatives. We suggest that the restricted pattern of mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring facilitates inbreeding avoidance within colonies. These results provide insight into the population structure and maintenance of genetic diversity within colonies of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby.

Studying phenotypic evolution using multivariate quantitative genetics

Quantitative genetics provides a powerful framework for studying phenotypic evolution and the evolution of adaptive genetic variation. Central to the approach is G, the matrix of additive genetic variances and covariances. G summarizes the genetic basis of the traits and can be used to predict the phenotypic response to multivariate selection or to drift. Recent analytical and computational advances have improved both the power and the accessibility of the necessary multivariate statistics. It is now possible to study the relationships between G and other evolutionary parameters, such as those describing the mutational input, the shape and orientation of the adaptive landscape, and the phenotypic divergence among populations. At the same time, we are moving towards a greater understanding of how the genetic variation summarized by G evolves. Computer simulations of the evolution of G, innovations in matrix comparison methods, and rapid development of powerful molecular genetic tools have all opened the way for dissecting the interaction between allelic variation and evolutionary process. Here I discuss some current uses of G, problems with the application of these approaches, and identify avenues for future research.

Plasma steroids and steroid-binding capacity in male semelparous dasyurid marsupials (Phascogale tapoatafa) that survive beyond the breeding season in captivity

The semelparous dasyurids display a unique life history, in that all males die within a few weeks of the completion of the breeding season. Studies of several semelparous species have revealed that the male die-off is stress-related, and accompanied by increased plasma androgen and cortisol levels and decreased corticosteroid binding capacity, resulting in suppression of immune and inflammatory responses. This study examines the endocrine profile of male brush-tailed phascogales (Phascogale tapoatafa) that survive beyond the breeding season in captivity. Plasma cortisol, corticosteroid binding globulin and albumin levels were monitored in both males and females and steroid partitioning calculated. Captive males surviving beyond the breeding season did not show the elevation in plasma cortisol and decrease in corticosteroid binding capacity reported in wild males. Plasma albumin concentrations also remained constant during the sampling period. These data indicate that captive males do not undergo the same stress response described in wild populations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drifting blooms of the endemic filamentous brown alga Hincksia sordida at Noosa on the subtropical east Australian coast

Since 2002, the usually uncommon endemic filamentous brown alga Hincksia sordida (Harvey) Silva (Ectocarpales, Phaeophyta) has formed nuisance blooms annually during spring/early summer at Main Beach, Noosa on the subtropical east Australian coast. The Hincksia bloom coincides with the normally intensive recreational use of the popular bathing beach by the local population and tourists. The alga forms dense accumulations in the surf zone at Main Beach, giving the seawater a distinct brown coloration and deterring swimmers from entering the water. Decomposing algae stranded by receding tides emit a nauseating sulphurous stench which hangs over the beach. The stranded algal biomass is removed from the beach by bulldozers. During blooms, the usually crowded Main Beach is deserted, bathers preferring to use the many unaffected beaches on the Sunshine Coast to the south of Main Beach. The bloom worsens with north-easterly winds and is cleared from Noosa by south easterly winds, observations which have prompted the untenable proposal by local authorities that the bloom is forming offshore of Fraser Island in the South Pacific Ocean. The Noosa River estuarine system/Laguna Bay is the more probable source of the bloom and the nutrient inputs into this system must be substantial to generate the high bloom biomass. Current mitigation procedures of removing the blooming alga off the beach with bulldozers treat the symptom, not the cause and are proving ineffective. Environmental management must be based on science and the Noosa bloom would benefit greatly from the accurate ecological data on which to base management options. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of different models to describe egg and pupal development of Xyleborus fornicatus Eichh. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), the shot-hole borer of tea in Sri Lanka

Abstract Development data of eggs and pupae of Xyleborus fornicatus Eichh. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), the shot-hole borer of tea in Sri Lanka, at constant temperatures were used to evaluate a linear and seven nonlinear models for insect development. Model evaluation was based on fit to data (residual sum of squares and coefficient of determination or coefficient of nonlinear regression), number of measurable parameters, the biological value of the fitted coefficients and accuracy in the estimation of thresholds. Of the nonlinear models, the Lactin model fitted experimental data well and along with the linear model, can be used to describe the temperature-dependent development of this species.