Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

In situ characterization of stickiness of sugar-rich foods using a linear actuator driven stickiness testing device

A stickiness testing device based on the probe tack test has been designed and tested. It was used to perform in situ characterization of drying hemispherical drops with an initial radius 3.5 mm. Tests were carried out in two drying temperatures, 63 and 95 degreesC. Moisture and temperature histories of the drying drops of fructose, honey, sucrose, maltodextrin and sucrose-maltodextrin mixtures were determined. The rates of moisture evaporation of the fructose solution was the fastest while those of the maltodextrin solution was the lowest. A profile reversal was observed when the temperature profiles of these materials were compared. Different modes of failure were observed during the stickiness tests. Pure fructose and honey solutions remained completely sticky and failed cohesively until the end of drying. Pure sucrose solution remained sticky and failed cohesively until complete crystallization occurred. The surface of the maltodextrin drops formed a skin shortly after the start of drying. It exhibited adhesive failure and reached a state of non-adhesion. Addition of maltodextrin significantly altered the stickiness of sucrose solution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of personalized smoking cessation strategies for callers to a Quitline service

Aim To assess the effectiveness of a program of computer-generated tailored advice for callers to a telephone helpline, and to assess whether it enhanced a series of callback telephone counselling sessions in aiding smoking cessation. Design Randomized controlled trial comparing: (1) untailored self-help materials; (2) computer-generated tailored advice only, and (3) computer-generated tailored advice plus callback telephone counselling. Assessment surveys were conducted at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. Setting Victoria, Australia. Participants A total of 1578 smokers who called the Quitline service and agreed to participate. Measurements Smoking status at follow-up; duration of cessation, if quit; use of nicotine replacement therapy; and extent of participation in the callback service. Findings At the 3-month follow-up, significantly more (chi(2)(2) = 16.9; P < 0.001) participants in the computer-generated tailored advice plus telephone counselling condition were not smoking (21%) than in either the computer-generated advice only (12%) or the control condition (12%). Proportions reporting not smoking at the 12-month follow-up were 26%, 23% and 22%, respectively (NS) for point prevalence, and for 9 months sustained abstinence; 8.2, 6.0, and 5.0 (NS). In the telephone counselling group, those receiving callbacks were more likely than those who did not to have sustained abstinence at 12 months (10.2 compared with 4.0, P < 0.05). Logistic regression on 3-month data showed significant independent effects on cessation of telephone counselling and use of NRT, but not of computer-generated tailored advice. Conclusion Computer-generated tailored advice did not enhance telephone counselling, nor have any independent effect on cessation. This may be due to poor timing of the computer-generated tailored advice and poor integration of the two modes of advice.