Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Testing for Market Power in Multiple-Input, Multiple-Output Industries: The Australian Grains and Oilseeds Industries

Recent empirical studies have found significant evidence of departures from competition in the input side of the Australian bread, breakfast cereal and margarine end-product markets. For example, Griffith (2000) found that firms in some parts of the processing and marketing sector exerted market power when purchasing grains and oilseeds from farmers. As noted at the time, this result accorded well with the views of previous regulatory authorities (p.358). In the mid-1990s, the Prices Surveillence Authority (PSA 1994) determined that the markets for products contained in the Breakfast Cereals and Cooking Oils and Fats indexes were "not effectively competitive" (p.14). The PSA consequently maintained price surveillence on the major firms in this product group. The Griffith result is also consistent with the large number of legal judgements against firms in this sector over the past decade for price fixing or other types of non-competitive behaviour. For example, bread manufacturer George Weston was fined twice during 2000 for non-competitive conduct and the ACCC has also recently pursued and won cases against retailer Safeway in grains and oilseeds product lines.

Design, modelling and analysis of a six component force balance for hypervelocity wind tunnel testing

A combination of modelling and analysis techniques was used to design a six component force balance. The balance was designed specifically for the measurement of impulsive aerodynamic forces and moments characteristic of hypervelocity shock tunnel testing using the stress wave force measurement technique. Aerodynamic modelling was used to estimate the magnitude and distribution of forces and finite element modelling to determine the mechanical response of proposed balance designs. Simulation of balance performance was based on aerodynamic loads and mechanical responses using convolution techniques. Deconvolution was then used to assess balance performance and to guide further design modifications leading to the final balance design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life on the ocean wave: Testing some intergroup hypotheses in a naturalistic setting

A survey (N= 352) was conducted among British passengers of a cross-channel ferry. The survey aimed to test hypotheses drawn from Realistic Group Conflict, Social Identity and Contact theories using mainly a correlational design. However, an intervention by members of the outgroup (French fishermen blockading a port) also allowed a quasi-experimental test of the effects of a direct experience of intergroup conflict. Results supported the hypotheses since conflict and national identification were associated with more negative and with less positive attitudes toward the outgroup, while contact had the reverse effects. In addition, the salience of group membership in the contact relationship weakly moderated the effect of contact.

On surrogate methods for detecting lateral gene transfer

Surrogate methods for detecting lateral gene transfer are those that do not require inference of phylogenetic trees. Herein I apply four such methods to identify open reading frames (ORFs) in the genome of Escherichia coli K12 that may have arisen by lateral gene transfer. Only two of these methods detect the same ORFs more frequently than expected by chance, whereas several intersections contain many fewer ORFs than expected. Each of the four methods detects a different non-random set of ORFs. The methods may detect lateral ORFs of different relative ages; testing this hypothesis will require rigorous inference of trees. (C) 2001 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science BN. All rights reserved.

Outcomes of transient evoked otoacoustic emission testing in 6-year-old school children: A comparison with pure tone screening and tympanometry

Objectives: (1) To establish test performance measures for Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing of 6-year-old children in a school setting; (2) To investigate whether Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing provides a more accurate and effective alternative to a pure tone screening plus tympanometry protocol. Methods: Pure tone screening, tympanometry and transient evoked otoacoustic emission data were collected from 940 subjects (1880 ears), with a mean age of 6.2 years. Subjects were tested in non-sound-treated rooms within 22 schools. Receiver operating characteristics curves along with specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and efficiency values were determined for a variety of transient evoked otoacoustic emission/pure tone screening/tympanometry comparisons. Results: The Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission failure rate for the group was 20.3%. The failure rate for pure tone screening was found to be 8.9%, whilst 18.6% of subjects failed a protocol consisting of combined pure tone screening and tympanometry results. In essence, findings from the comparison of overall Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission pass/fail with overall pure tone screening pass/fail suggested that use of a modified Rhode Island Hearing Assessment Project criterion would result in a very high probability that a child with a pass result has normal hearing (true negative). However, the hit rate was only moderate. Selection of a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion set at greater than or equal to 1 dB appeared to provide the best test performance measures for the range of SNR values investigated. Test performance measures generally declined when tympanometry results were included, with the exception of lower false alarm rates and higher positive predictive values. The exclusion of low frequency data from the Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission SNR versus pure tone screening analysis resulted in improved performance measures. Conclusions: The present study poses several implications for the clinical implementation of Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission screening for entry level school children. Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission pass/fail criteria will require revision. The findings of the current investigation offer support to the possible replacement of pure tone screening with Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing for 6-year-old children. However, they do not suggest the replacement of the pure tone screening plus tympanometry battery. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power of the joint segregation analysis method for testing mixed major-gene and polygene inheritance models of quantitative traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.