Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

A new formation model for M32: a threshed early-type spiral galaxy?

The origin of M32, the closest compact elliptical galaxy (cE), is a long-standing puzzle of galaxy fort-nation in the Local Group. Our N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations suggest a new scenario in which the strong tidal field of M31 can transform a spiral galaxy into a compact elliptical galaxy. As a low-luminosity spiral galaxy plunges into the central region of M31, most of the outer stellar and gaseous components of its disk are dramatically stripped as a result of M31's tidal field. The central bulge component, on the other hand, is just weakly influenced by the tidal field, owing to its compact configuration, and retains its morphology. M31's strong tidal field also induces rapid gas transfer to the central region, triggers a nuclear starburst, and consequently forms the central high-density and more metal-rich stellar populations with relatively young ages. Thus, in this scenario, M32 was previously the bulge of a spiral galaxy tidally interacting with M31 several gigayears ago. Furthermore, we suggest that cE's like M32 are rare, the result of both the rather narrow parameter space for tidal interactions that morphologically transform spiral galaxies into cE's and the very short timescale (less than a few times 10(9) yr) for cE's to be swallowed by their giant host galaxies (via dynamical friction) after their formation.

Vaccines for papillomavirus infection

Vaccines to prevent PV infection, utilising PV L1 virus like particles (VLPs) to induce neutralising antibody, are in clinical trial and show all the characteristics likely to be associated with success. Results warrant global planning for the deployment of VLP vaccines within a decade, as part of a program to prevent cervical cancer. Vaccines designed to treat existing PV infection by inducing therapeutic cellular immunity targeted to PV proteins are at a much earlier stage of development. The wide choice of potential and proposed antigens, routes and mechanisms of delivery, and possible treatment regimens suggest that, to move the field forward, surrogate markers allowing comparison of the relative efficacy of different vaccine approaches are required. These should be based on reduction in load of virus infection, and need to be validated in animal models or in man. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Limiting conditional distributions for birth-death processes

In a recent paper [16], one of us identified all of the quasi-stationary distributions for a non-explosive, evanescent birth-death process for which absorption is certain, and established conditions for the existence of the corresponding limiting conditional distributions. Our purpose is to extend these results in a number of directions. We shall consider separately two cases depending on whether or not the process is evanescent. In the former case we shall relax the condition that absorption is certain. Furthermore, we shall allow for the possibility that the minimal process might be explosive, so that the transition rates alone will not necessarily determine the birth-death process uniquely. Although we shall be concerned mainly with the minimal process, our most general results hold for any birth-death process whose transition probabilities satisfy both the backward and the forward Kolmogorov differential equations.

Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.

Purification by reflux electrophoresis of whey proteins and of a recombinant protein expressed in Dictyostelium discoideum

Protein purification that combines the use of molecular mass exclusion membranes with electrophoresis is particularly powerful as it uses properties inherent to both techniques. The use of membranes allows efficient processing and is easily scaled up, while electrophoresis permits high resolution separation under mild conditions. The Gradiflow apparatus combines these two technologies as it uses polyacrylamide membranes to influence electrokinetic separations. The reflux electrophoresis process consists of a series of cycles incorporating a forward phase and a reverse phase. The forward phase involves collection of a target protein that passes through a separation membrane before trailing proteins in the same solution. The forward phase is repeated following clearance of the membrane in the reverse phase by reversing the current. We have devised a strategy to establish optimal reflux separation parameters, where membranes are chosen for a particular operating range and protein transfer is monitored at different pH values. In addition, forward and reverse phase times are determined during this process. Two examples of the reflux method are described. In the first case, we describe the purification strategy for proteins from a complex mixture which contains proteins of higher electrophoretic mobility than the target protein. This is a two-step procedure, where first proteins of higher mobility than the target protein are removed from the solution by a series of reflux cycles, so that the target protein remains as the leading fraction. In the second step the target protein is collected, as it has become the leading fraction of the remaining proteins. In the second example we report the development of a reflux strategy which allowed a rapid one-step preparative purification of a recombinant protein, expressed in Dictyostelium discoideum. These strategies demonstrate that the Gradiflow is amenable to a wide range of applications, as the protein of interest is not necessarily required to be the leading fraction in solution. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Homoclinic orbits and chaos in a multimode laser

We show experimentally that under certain conditions the chaotic intensity dynamics of an optically pumped NH3 bidirectional ring laser could be well described in terms of Shil'nikov homoclinic orbits and chaos. We found that the mechanism that resulted in this kind of dynamics of the laser is the competition between effects caused by the mode interaction between the forward and the backward modes of the laser and by the intrinsic single-mode dynamics of the interacting modes. (C) 1997 Optical Society of America.

MDA-based re-engineering with Object-Z

This paper describes a practical application of MDA and reverse engineering based on a domain-specific modelling language. A well defined metamodel of a domain-specific language is useful for verification and validation of associated tools. We apply this approach to SIFA, a security analysis tool. SIFA has evolved as requirements have changed, and it has no metamodel. Hence, testing SIFA’s correctness is difficult. We introduce a formal metamodelling approach to develop a well-defined metamodel of the domain. Initially, we develop a domain model in EMF by reverse engineering the SIFA implementation. Then we transform EMF to Object-Z using model transformation. Finally, we complete the Object-Z model by specifying system behavior. The outcome is a well-defined metamodel that precisely describes the domain and the security properties that it analyses. It also provides a reliable basis for testing the current SIFA implementation and forward engineering its successor.

Contradictions and institutional convergences: Genre as method

My purpose here is to put forward a conception of genre as a way to conduct Futures Studies. To demonstrate the method, I present some examples of contemporary political and corporate discourses and contextualise them in broader institutional and historical settings. I elaborate the method further by giving examples of ‘genre chaining’ and ‘genre hybridity’ (Fairclough 1992 2000) to show how past, present, and future change can be viewed through the lens of genre.

A simulation model for analysing patient activity in dermatology

We developed a general model to assess patient activity within the primary and secondary health-care sectors following a dermatology outpatient consultation. Based on observed variables from the UK teledermatology trial, the model showed that up to 11 doctor-patient interactions occurred before a patient was ultimately discharged from care. In a cohort of 1000 patients, the average number of health-care visits was 2.4 (range 1-11). Simulation analysis suggested that the most important parameter affecting the total number of doctor-patient Interactions is patient discharge from care following the initial consultation. This implies that resources should be concentrated in this area. The introduction of teledermatology (either realtime or store and forward) changes the values of the model parameters. The model provides a quantitative tool for planning the future provision of dermatology health-care.

Teledermatology: a review

Teledermatology holds great potential for revolutionizing the delivery of dermatology services, providing equitable service to remote areas and allowing primary care physicians to refer patients to dermatology centres of excellence at a distance. However, before its routine application asa service tool, its reliability, accuracy and cost-effectiveness need to be verified by rigorous evaluation. Teledermatology can be applied in one of two ways: it may be conducted in real-time, utilizing videoconferencing equipment, or by store-and-forward methods, when transmitted digital images or photographs are submitted with a clinical history. While there is a considerable range of reported accuracy and reliability, evidence suggests that teledermatology will become increasingly utilized and incorporated into more conventional dermatology service delivery systems. Studies to date have generally found that real-time dermatology is likely to allow greater clinical information to be obtained from the patient. This may result in fewer patients requiring conventional consultations, but it is generally more time-consuming and costly to the health service provider It is often favoured by the patient because of the instantaneous nature of the diagnosis and management regimen for the condition, and it has educational value to the primary care physician. Store-and-forward systems of teledermatology often give high levels of diagnostic accuracy, and are cheaper and more convenient for the health care provider, but lack the immediacy of patient contact with the dermatologist, and involve a delay in obtaining the diagnosis and advice on management. It is increasingly likely that teledermatology will prove to be a significant tool in the provision of dermatology services in the future. These services will probably be provided by store-and-forward digital image systems, with real-time videoconferencing being used for case conferences and education. However, much more research is needed into the outcomes and Limitations of such a service and its effect on waiting lists, as well as possible cost benefits for patients, primary health care professionals and dermatology departments.

An evaluation of the first year's experience with a low-cost telemedicine link in Bangladesh

In July 1999, the Swinfen Charitable Trust in the UK established a telemedicine link in Bangladesh, between the Centre for the Rehabilitation of the Paralysed (CRP) in Dhaka and medical consultants abroad. This low-cost telemedicine system used a digital camera to capture still images, which were then transmitted by email. During the first 12 months, 27 telemedicine referrals were made. The following specialties were consulted: neurology (44%), orthopaedics (40%), rheumatology (8%), nephrology (4%) and paediatrics (4%). Initial email replies were received at the CRP within a day of referral in 70% of cases and within thee days in 100%, which shows that store-and-forward telemedicine can be both fast and reliable. Telemedicine consultation was complete within three days in 14 cases (52%) and within three weeks in 24 cases (89%). Referral was judged to be beneficial in 24 cases (89%), the benefits including establishment of the diagnosis, the provision of reassurance to the patient and referring doctor, and a change of management. Four patients (15% of the total) and their families were spared the considerable expense and unnecessary stress of travelling abroad for a second opinion, and the savings from this alone outweighed the set-up and running costs in Bangladesh. The latter are limited to an email account with an Internet service provider and the local-rate telephone call charges from the CRP. This successful telemedicine system is a model for further telemedicine projects in the developing world.

On the surface diffusion of hydrocarbons in microporous activated carbon

This paper addresses the current status of the various diffusion theories for surface diffusion in the literature. The inadequacy of these models to explain the surface diffusion of many hydrocarbons in microporous activated carbon is shown in this paper. They all can explain the increase of the surface diffusivity (D-mu) with loading, but cannot explain the increase of the surface permeability (D(mu)partial derivativeC(mu)/partial derivativeP) with loading as observed in our data of diffusion of hydrocarbons in activated carbon, even when the surface heterogeneity is accounted for in those models. The explanation for their failure was presented, and we have put forward a theory to explain the increase of surface diffusion permeability with loading. This new theory assumes the variation of the activation energy for surface diffusion with surface loading, and it is validated with diffusion data of propane, n-butane, n-hexane, benzene and ethanol in activated carbon. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.