The polar ionosphere at Zhongshan Station on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared

The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11,1999: the solar wind plasma density and' dynamic pressure were less than 1 cm(-3) and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F-2 layer spread very little. The critical frequency of dayside F-2 layer, f(0)F(2), was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f(0)F(2) appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral E-s appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral E-s and weak Pc3 pulsation.

Plant growth limitation and nutrient loss following piled burning in slash and burn agriculture

In the forest zone of Cameroon, small-scale family farmers practicing traditional slash and burn practices achieve a clear field by piled burning of the branches and trunks of cleared vegetation. Plant growth inhibition on ash patches, and the risk of nutrient loss from these areas, was evaluated on field plots on which 0.5 t m(-2) or 1.0 t m(-2) of wood was piled and burnt, and in laboratory studies. The ash produced by burning was strongly alkaline, and laboratory bio-assessment studies showed that the saline, high pH conditions produced in ash patches prevented germination and plant growth for up to two wet seasons, as is observed in the field. Field and laboratory studies demonstrated rapid release (1 wet season) of K and S from the ash and the loss of a substantial portion of these nutrients from the soil profile by leaching. In contrast, leaching carries Mg from the ash gradually (3 to 4 wet seasons), while Ca, Cu, Zn and P are leached slowly. The nutrients contained in ash patches are considered at risk of loss both through leaching (K and S) and by erosion of ash (Ca, Mg, Cu, Zn and P). Farmers should be encouraged to spread ash patches prior to cultivation in order to exploit the nutrient content of ash and to lessen the risk of nutrient loss.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of carbon monoxide in fires by conditional moment closure

Carbon monoxide is the chief killer in fires. Dangerous levels of CO can occur when reacting combustion gases are quenched by heat transfer, or by mixing of the fire plume in a cooled under- or overventilated upper layer. In this paper, carbon monoxide predictions for enclosure fires are modeled by the conditional moment closure (CMC) method and are compared with laboratory data. The modeled fire situation is a buoyant, turbulent, diffusion flame burning under a hood. The fire plume entrains fresh air, and the postflame gases are cooled considerably under the hood by conduction and radiation, emulating conditions which occur in enclosure fires and lead to the freezing of CO burnout. Predictions of CO in the cooled layer are presented in the context of a complete computational fluid dynamics solution of velocity, temperature, and major species concentrations. A range of underhood equivalence ratios, from rich to lean, are investigated. The CMC method predicts CO in very good agreement with data. In particular, CMC is able to correctly predict CO concentrations in lean cooled gases, showing its capability in conditions where reaction rates change considerably.

Mitochondrial genome data alone are not enough to unambiguously resolve the relationships of Entognatha, Insecta and Crustacea sensu lato (Arthropoda)

An analysis of the relationships of the major arthropod groups Was undertaken using mitochondrial genome data to examine the hypotheses that Hexapoda is polyphyletic and that Collembola is more closely related to branchiopod crustaceans than insects. We sought to examine the sensitivity of this relationship to outgroup choice, data treatment. gene choice and optimality criteria used in the phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial genome data. Additionally we sequenced the mitochondrial genome of ail archaeognathan, Nesomachilis australica. to improve taxon selection in the apterygote insects, a group poorly represented in previous mitochondrial phylogenies. The sister group of the Collembola was rarely resolved in our analyses with a significant level of support. The use of different outgroups (myriapods, nematodes, or annelids + mollusks) resulted in many different placements of Collembola. The way in which the dataset was coded for analysis (DNA, DNA with the exclusion of third codon position and as amino acids) also had marked affects on tree topology. We found that nodal Support was spread evenly throughout the 13 mitochondrial genes and the exclusion of genes resulted in significantly less resolution in the inferred trees. Optimality criteria had a much lesser effect on topology than the preceding factors; parsimony and Bayesian trees for a given data set and treatment were quite similar. We therefore conclude that the relationships of the extant arthropod groups as inferred by mitochondrial genomes are highly vulnerable to outgroup choice, data treatment and gene choice, and no consistent alternative hypothesis of Collembola's relationships is supported. Pending the resolution of these identified problems with the application of mitogenomic data to basal arthropod relationships, it is difficult to justify the rejection of hexapod monophyly, which is well supported on morphological grounds. (c) The Willi Hennig Society 2004.

Modelling of species in hood fires by conditional moment closure

Carbon monoxide, the chief killer in fires, and other species are modelled for a series of enclosure fires. The conditions emulate building fires where CO is formed in the rich, turbulent, nonpremixed flame and is transported frozen to lean mixtures by the ceiling jet which is cooled by radiation and dilution. Conditional moment closure modelling is used and computational domain minimisation criteria are developed which reduce the computational cost of this method. The predictions give good agreement for CO and other species in the lean, quenched-gas stream, holding promise that this method may provide a practical means of modelling real, three-dimensional fire situations. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fuel stagnation temperature effects on mixing with supersonic combustion flows

An experimental study of the effect of fuel stagnation temperature on mixing in a supersonic hydrogen-air flame is described, The combustor consisted of a constant-area rectangular duct with a centrally located fuel-injection strut that spanned the width. A high-enthalpy stream of air was supplied by a free-piston shock tunnel, and heated hydrogen fuel, supplied by a gun-tunnel, was injected into the freestream as a coflowing planar jet. The freestream total enthalpies were 5.6, 6.5, and 9 MJ/kg, and fuel stagnation temperatures were 300, 450, and 700 K, Raising the fuel stagnation temperature increased the fuel velocity to be near that of the airstream and resulted in a decrease in the mixing rate, Even as the fuel and air velocities became equal, significant mixing still occurred because of a large difference in density, Increasing the freestream enthalpy reduced the difference between the initial air temperature and the adiabatic flame temperature, which in turn reduced the heat addition, and subsequently, the amount of pressure rise in the duct.

Supersonic velocimetry in a shock tube using laser enhanced ionisation and planar laser induced fluorescence

A novel flow-tagging technique is presented which was employed to measure gas velocities in the free stream of a shock tube. This method is based on the laser spectroscopic techniques of Laser-Enhanced Ionisation (LEI) and Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF). The flow in the shock tube is seeded with small amounts of sodium, and LEI is used to produce a substantial depletion of neutral sodium atom concentration in a well-defined region of the flow, by using two wavelength-resonance excitation and subsequent collisional ionisation. At a specific time delay, single-laser-pulse planar LIF is utilised to produce a two-dimensional (2-D) inverse image of the depleted tagged region downstream of the flow. By measuring the displacement of the tagged region, free stream velocities in a shock tube were determined. Large variations in the concentration of sodium seeded into the flow were observed and even in the presence of these large variations accurate free-stream velocity measurements were obtained. The experimentally determined value for velocity compares very well with the predicted velocity.

Whose diet has changed?

The same questions about diet were asked in two community-based surveys conducted in the Hunter Region of New South Wales in 1983 and 1994. There were substantial changes in diet over the period; for example, the proportion of respondents who reported using low-fat or skim milk increased from 25 per cent to 51 per cent, the proportion eating meat fewer than five times a week doubled from 21 per cent to 42 per cent and the proportion eating fewer than three eggs per week increased from 55 per cent to 80 per cent. In both surveys, women reported eating a healthier diet than men, and older people and those of higher socioeconomic status reported better diets than younger people or people with less education or lower status occupations. The surprising finding was that over the 11-year period the changes in patterns of food consumption were remarkably similar across all strata of the population. The conclusions are that wide-spread dietary change is possible. However, the changes in the last decade related mainly to reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease; similar behavioural changes to reduce the risk of diet-related cancer are required.

Breast cancer five-year survival in New South Wales women, 1972 to 1991

This study of breast cancer survival is based on analysis of five-year relative survival of 38 362 cases of invasive breast cancer in New South Wales (NSW) women, incident between 1972 and 1991, with follow-up to 1992, using data from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Survival was ascertained by matching the registry file of breast cancers against NSW death certificates from 1972 to 1992, mainly by automated probabilistic linkage. Absolute survival of cases was compared with expected survival of age- and period-matched NSW women. Proportional hazard regression analysis was used for examination of the effects on excess mortality of age, period of diagnosis and degree of spread at diagnosis. Relative survival at five years increased from 70 per cent in 1972-1976 to 77 per cent in 1987-1991. Survival improved during the 1970s and in the late 1980s. Regression analysis suggested that part of the improved survival in the late 1980s was due to lesser degree of spread at diagnosis, whereas the improved survival during the 1970s may have been due to treatment. Survival was better for those aged 40-49 years (RR = 0.86) and worse for those aged greater than or equal to 70 years (RR = 1.22) compared with the referent group (60-69 years). Excess mortality was much less for those with invasive localised disease than those with regional spread (RR = 3.1) or metastatic cancer (RR = 15.5) at diagnosis. For the most recent period (1987-1991), relative five-year survival was 90, 70 and 18 per cent, respectively, for the three degree-of-spread categories.

Breast cancer five-year survival, by New South Wales regions, 1980 to 1991

Breast cancer five-year relative survival was calculated for 16 urban and rural regions in New South Wales (NSW) for cases incident in 1980-1991. Survival analysis employed cancer registry data linked with the death register, and age- and period-matched regional mortality of NSW women, Proportional hazard regression analysis was used to compare excess mortality in breast cancer cases in each region. The effect of region was significant (P < 0.05) in the analysis, after age and the follow-up variable (and their intel action) were adjusted for, although no region was significantly different from the referent group (chosen because of average relative five-year survival). When degree of spread and its interactions were entered into che model, the effect of region became nonsignificant. A significant linear trend (P < 0.05) in the adjusted relative risk for excess mortality in breast cancer cases was noted when regions were divided into quartiles based on socioeconomic status, with higher relative risk in low-socioeconomic-status groups; this effect also disappeared with adjustment for degree of spread at diagnosis. There was no general effect of rurality versus capital city or other metropolitan centres. This study demonstrates a small effect of region of residence and implied socioeconomic status on breast cancer survival in NSW women, but this becomes nonsignificant when the data are adjusted for degree of spread at diagnosis, This suggests that earlier diagnosis would he of benefit in reducing minor inequalities in breast cancer survival in NSW women.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Ross River virus transmission, infection, and disease: a cross-disciplinary review

Ross River virus (RRV) is a fascinating, important arbovirus that is endemic and enzootic in Australia and Papua New Guinea and was epidemic in the South Pacific in 1979 and 1980. Infection with RRV may cause disease in humans, typically presenting as peripheral polyarthralgia or arthritis, sometimes with fever and rash. RRV disease notificatïons in Australia average 5,000 per year. The first well-described outbreak occurred in 1928. During World War II there were more outbreaks, and the name epidemic polyarthritis was applied. During a 1956 outbreak, epidemic polyarthritis was linked serologically to a group A arbovirus (Alphavirus). The virus was subsequently isolated from Aedes vigilax mosquitoes in 1963 and then from epidemic polyarthritis patients. We review the literature on the evolutionary biology of RRV, immune response to infection, pathogenesis, serologic diagnosis, disease manifestations, the extraordinary variety of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and transmission cycles, antibody prevalence, epidemiology of asymptomatic and symptomatic human infection, infection risks, and public health impact. RRV arthritis is due to joint infection, and treatment is currently based on empirical anti-inflammatory regimens. Further research on pathogenesis may improve understanding of the natural history of this disease and lead to new treatment strategies. The burden of morbidity is considerable, and the virus could spread to other countries. To justify and design preventive programs, we need accurate data on economic costs and better understanding of transmission and behavioral and environmental risks.

An evaluation of the changes in malocclusion index scores over a 25-year period

Background: The measured values of specific traits of occlusion may be subject to significant change due to growth and maturation of the dentofacial structures. Some traits may show improvement while others may show deterioration. Rarely is there an opportunity to examine a sample of occlusions 25 years after the acquisition of the original set of records. This study examines the changes in traits of occlusion in a sample of 46 subjects who were originally examined between 1971-1973 and for whom records were again obtained in 1998. Methods: The 46 patients were a sub-group of a previously selected randomised school-based sample and study models obtained in 1971-1973 were still available. New models for each patient were obtained in 1998. Of the 46 subjects, only eight had received orthodontic treatment. Results: Assessments of the changes in specific traits were made using the methods proposed in the Harry L Draker, California Modification (HLD Cal Mod) index. This simple index was chosen because the main component traits were well defined and, when analysed separately, reflected changes with time. The total index score gave a broad indication of the global changes in the individual's occlusion. The five basic traits of the HLD index include overjet, overbite, openbite, mandibular protrusion and labio-lingual spread. Three additional traits (ectopic eruption, anterior crowding and posterior crossbite) are used in the HLD Cal Mod index. These traits provided a useful reflection of occlusal changes with time. Measurements were made with reference to specifications and the details outlined in the HLD Cal Mod protocol. The results revealed an increase in total index scores over time with a significant increase in lower labio-lingual spread associated with an increased score in anterior crowding. Overjet and overbite, however, displayed a significant decrease with time. Conclusions: These findings are in keeping with previous studies and highlight the importance of time as a significant issue in the assessment of occlusion.