Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

'Vigilant Hospitality': The Online Imperative and Teaching Cultural Studies

Information technology (IT) sees information as a fluid, to be stored, regulated and exchanged. This is a profoundly economic model, whose dreams are those of the marketplace – and now, university managers. But no teacher, of course, holds that teaching can be reduced to the movement of information from one point to another. Teaching is never quite absorbed into the models of IT. Where they meet, we do not have the utopia of the virtual classroom, at last freed from the strictures of timetables and the face-to-face; we have, rather, the grinding of two radically irreducible models. This has nothing to do with Luddism; on the contrary, it is the value and necessity of IT for us at present, as teachers. At a time when the tertiary sector’s massive investment in IT is motivated in part by its own dream of the teacherless classroom, one of the pressing tasks for us may be simply to argue as rigorously as we can the structural necessity of our own position as teachers, without nostalgia or humanist sentimentality.

The genetics of coronary heart disease: the contribution of twin studies

Despite the decline in coronary heart disease in many European countries, the disease remains an enormous public health problem. Although we know a great deal about environmental risk factors for coronary heart disease, a heritable component was recognized a long time ago. The earliest and best known examples of how our genetic constitution may determine cardiovascular risk relate to lipoprotein(a), familial hypercholesterolaemia and apolipoprotein E. In the past 20 years a fair number of polymorphisms assessed singly have shown strong associations with the disease but most are subject to poor repeatability. Twins constitute a compelling natural experiment to establish the genetic contribution to coronary heart disease and its risk factors. GenomEUtwin, a recently funded Framework 5 Programme of the European Community, affords the opportunity of comparing the heritability of risk factors in different European Twin Registries. As an illustration we present the heritabilities of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, based on data from over 4000 twin pairs from six different European countries and Australia. Heritabilities for systolic blood pressure are between 52 and 66% and for diastolic blood pressure between 44 and 66%. There is no evidence of sex differences in heritability estimates and very little to no evidence for a significant contribution of shared family environment. A non-twin based prospective case/cohort study of coronary heart disease and stroke (MORGAM) will allow hypotheses relating to cardiovascular disease, generated in the twin cohorts, to be tested prospectively in adult populations. Twin studies have also contributed to our understanding of the life course hypothesis, and GenomEUtwin has the potential to add to this.

Screening of human primary melanocytes of defined melanocortin-1 receptor genotype: Pigmentation marker, ultrastructural and UV-survival studies

Recent population studies have demonstrated an association with the red-hair and fair-skin phenotype with variant alleles of the melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) which result in amino acid substitutions within the coding region leading to an altered receptor activity. In particular, Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp and Asp294His were the most commonly associated variants seen in the south-east Queensland population with at least one of these alleles found in 93% of those with red hair. In order to study the individual effects of these variants on melanocyte biology and melanocytic pigmentation, we established a series of human melanocyte strains genotyped for the MC1R receptor which included wild-type consensus, variant heterozygotes, compound heterozygotes and homozygotes for Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp, Val60Leu and Val92Met alleles. These strains ranged from darkly pigmented to amelanotic, with all strains of consensus sequence having dark pigmentation. UV sensitivity was found not to be associated with either MC1R genotype or the level of pigmentation with a range of sensitivities seen across all genotypes. Ultrastructural analysis demonstrated that while consensus strains contained stage IV melanosomes in their terminal dendrites, Arg151Cys and Arg160Trp homozygote strains contained only stage II melanosomes. This was despite being able to show expression of tyrosinase and tyrosinase-related protein-1 markers, although at reduced levels and an ability to convert exogenous 3,4-dihydroxyphenyl-alanine (DOPA) to melanin in these strains.

A rapid method for determining recent sunscreen use in field studies

The role of sunscreens in preventing skin cancer and melanoma is the focus of ongoing research. Currently, there is no objective measure which can be used in field studies to determine whether a person has applied sunscreen to their skin, and researchers must use indirect assessments such as questionnaires. We sought to develop a rapid, non-invasive method for identifying sunscreen on the skin for use in epidemiological studies. Our basic method is to swab the skin, elute any residues which have been adsorbed onto the swab by rinsing in ethanol, and submit the eluted washings for spectrophotometric analysis. In a controlled study, we applied 0.1 ml of sunscreen to a 50 cm(2) grid on both forearms of 21 volunteers. Each forearm was allocated one of 10 different sunscreen brands. The skin was swabbed after intervals of 20 min, 1 h, 2 h and 4 h. In a field study conducted among 12 children aged 2-4 years attending a child care centre, sunscreen was applied to the faces of half the children. Swabs were then taken from the face and back of all children without knowledge of sunscreen status. In the controlled study, sunscreen was clearly detectable up to 2 h after application for all brands containing organic sunscreen, and marginally detectable at 4 h. In the field study, this method correctly identified all children with and without sunscreen. We conclude that spectrophotometric analysis of skin swabs can reliably detect the presence of sunscreen on the skin for up to 2 It after application. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Epizootic activity of Murray Valley encephalitis and Kunjin viruses in an aboriginal community in the Southeast Kimberley region of Western Australia: Results of mosquito fauna and virus isolation studies

We undertook annual surveys of flavivirus virus activity in the community of Billiluna of Western Australia in the southeast Kimberley region between 1989 and 2001. Culex annulirostris was the dominant mosquito species, particularly in years of above average rains and flooding. Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE) virus was isolated in 8 of the 13 years of the study from seven mosquito species, but more than 90% of the isolates were from Cx. annulirostris. The results suggest that MVE virus is epizootic in the region, with activity only apparent in years with average or above average rainfall and increased numbers of Cx. annulirostris. High levels of MVE virus activity and associated human cases were detected only once (in 1993) during the survey period. Activity of MVE virus could only be partially correlated with wet season rainfall and flooding, suggesting that a number of other factors must also be considered to accurately predict MVE virus activity at such communities.

A stress and coping approach to organisational change: Evidence from three field studies

In this paper, a stress and coping perspective is used to outline the processes that determine employee adaptation to organisational change. A theoretical framework that simultaneously considers the effects of event characteristics, situational appraisals, coping strategies, and coping resources is reviewed, Three empirical investigations of organisational change that have tested various components of the model are then presented. In the first study, there was evidence linking event characteristics, situational appraisals, coping strategies and coping resources to levels of employee adjustment in a sample of pilots employed in a newly merged airline company. In a more focused test of the model with a sample of employees experiencing a restructuring process in their Organisation it was found that the provision of change-related information enhanced levels of efficacy to deal with the change process which, in turn, predicted psychological wellbeing, client engagement, and job satisfaction. In a study of managers affected by a new remuneration scheme, there was evidence to suggest that managers who received change-specific information and opportunities to participate in the change process reported higher levels of change readiness. Managers who reported higher levels of readiness for change also reported higher levels of psychological wellbeing and job satisfaction. These studies highlight ways in which managers and change agents can help employees to cope during times of organisational change.

Measurement of free drug and clinical end-point by high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry: Applications and implications for pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies

Free drug measurement and pharmacodymanic markers provide the opportunity for a better understanding of drug efficacy and toxicity. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-mass spectrometry (MS) is a powerful analytical technique that could facilitate the measurement of free drug and these markers. Currently, there are very few published methods for the determination of free drug concentrations by HPLC-MS. The development of atmospheric pressure ionisation sources, together with on-line microdialysis or on-line equilibrium dialysis and column switching techniques have reduced sample run times and increased assay efficiency. The availability of such methods will aid in drug development and the clinical use of certain drugs, including anti-convulsants, anti-arrhythmics, immunosuppressants, local anaesthetics, anti-fungals and protease inhibitors. The history of free drug measurement and an overview of the current HPLC-MS applications for these drugs are discussed. Immunosuppressant drugs are used as an example for the application of HPLC-MS in the measurement of drug pharmacodynamics. Potential biomarkers of immunosuppression that could be measured by HPLC-MS include purine nucleoside/nucleotides, drug-protein complexes and phosphorylated peptides. At the proteomic level, two-dimensional gel electrophoresis combined with matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight (TOF) MS is a powerful tool for identifying proteins involved in the response to inflammatory mediators. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Using identity-by-de scent information in affected sib pairs to increase the efficiency of genetic association studies

T he aim of this study was to determine whether identity-by-descent (IBD) information for affected sib pairs (ASPs) can be used to select a sample of cases for a genetic case-control study which will provide more power for detecting association with loci in a known linkage region. By modeling the expected frequency of the disease allele in ASPs showing IBD sharing of 0, 1, or 2 alleles, and considering additive, recessive, and dominant disease models, we show that cases selected from IBD 2 families are best for this purpose, followed by those selected from IBD 1 families; least useful are cases selected from IBD 0 families.