An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the fast approximation of Green's functions in MPIE formulations for planar layered media

The numerical implementation of the complex image approach for the Green's function of a mixed-potential integralequation formulation is examined and is found to be limited to low values of k(0) rho (in this context k(0) rho = 2 pirho/ lambda(0), where rho is the distance between the source and the field points of the Green's function and lambda(0) is the free space wavelength). This is a clear limitation for problems of large dimension or high frequency where this limit is easily exceeded. This paper examines the various strategies and proposes a hybrid method whereby most of the above problems can be avoided. An efficient integral method that is valid for large k(0) rho is combined with the complex image method in order to take advantage of the relative merits of both schemes. It is found that a wide overlapping region exists between the two techniques allowing a very efficient and consistent approach for accurately calculating the Green's functions. In this paper, the method developed for the computation of the Green's function is used for planar structures containing both lossless and lossy media.

Interpreting white goods: Kunie women's perceptions of progress in New Caledonia

Acknowledging and describing the ways that women shape relations of power and property can add to understandings of how local communities create and experience globalisation. In this paper I examine how relations of power are actively and discursively constructed within Kunieacute households in New Caledonia, how they are inscribed by gender, and link them to local narrativisations of progress.

Fast neutron mutagenesis of soybean (Glycine soja L.) produces a supernodulating mutant containing a large deletion in linkage group H

We describe for the first time the application of fast neutron mutagenesis to the genetic dissection of root nodulation in legumes. We demonstrate the utility of chromosomal deletion mutations through production of a soybean supernodulation mutant FN37 that lacks the internal autoregulation of nodulation mechanism. After inoculation with microsymbiont Bradyrhizobium japonicum, FN37 forms at least 10 times more nodules than the wild type G. soja parent and has a phenotype identical to that of chemically induced allelic mutants nts382 and nts1007 (NTS-1 locus). Reciprocal grafting of shoots and roots confirmed systemic shoot control of the FN37 nodulation phenotype. RFLP/PCR marker pUTG132a and AFLP marker UQC-IS1 which are tightly linked to NTS-1 allowed the isolation of BAC contigs delineating both ends of the deletion. The genetic/physical distance ratio in the NTS-1 region is 279 kb/cM. The deletion is estimated to be about 460 kb based on the absence of markers and bacterial artificial chromosomes (BAC) ends as well as genetic and physical mapping. Deletion break points were determined physically and placed within flanking BAC contigs.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. IV. Lanczos iteration with diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative inversion

In this paper we propose a second linearly scalable method for solving large master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems. The new method is based on the well-known shift-invert Lanczos iteration using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation to provide the inverse of the master equation matrix. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods while maintaining the speed of a partial spectral decomposition. The method is tested using a master equation modeling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long-lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.