Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: Results from 27 populations in the WHO MONIICA Project

Introduction: In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. Methods:Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. Results: In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. Conclusions: The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.

Development and evaluation of the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a new instrument – the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist (CSRAC). The instrument assesses the clinician’s competency in three areas: clinical interviewing, assessment of specific suicide risk factors, and formulating a management plan. A draft checklist was constructed by integrating information from 1) literature review 2) expert clinician focus group and 3) consultation with experts. It was utilised in a simulated clinical scenario with clinician trainees and a trained actor in order to test for inter-rater agreement. Agreement was calculated and the checklist was re-drafted with the aim of maximising agreement. A second phase of simulated clinical scenarios was then conducted and inter-rater agreement was calculated for the revised checklist. In the first phase of the study, 18 of 35 items had inadequate inter-rater agreement (60%>), while in the second phase, using the revised version, only 3 of 39 items failed to achieve adequate inter-rater agreement. Further evidence of reliability and validity are required. Continued development of the CSRAC will be necessary before it can be utilised to assess the effectiveness of risk assessment training programs.

The influence of communication sources on perceived risk about purchasing online

In this paper we report on a qualitative study into the influence of personal and non-personal communication sources in creating, sustaining and/or mediating people's perceptions of risk about purchasing online. In terms of non-personal communication sources, our findings suggest that the popular media significantly influence both purchasers and nonpurchasers’ perceptions of risk about using the Web for purchasing. Despite these negative perceptions, those who have purchased online appear to pay little attention to change agent communications on websites, such as logos, icons and statements about secure payment systems, which are designed to alleviate these concerns. In terms of inter-personal communication sources, our findings suggest that while there is evidence that to some degree, friends or peers influenced the interviewees about purchasing online, the purchasers in our study indicated that they would not influence others to do the same. We conclude our paper with suggestions for future interpretive research into the influence of communication sources on acceptance of the Web for purchasing.

New limits on the possible variation of physical constants

Recent detections of high-redshift absorption by both atomic hydrogen and molecular gas in the radio spectra of quasars have provided a powerful tool for measuring possible temporal and spatial variations of physical 'constants' in the Universe. We compare the frequency of high-redshift hydrogen 21-cm absorption with that of associated molecular absorption in two quasars to place new (1 sigma) upper limits on any variation in y = g(p) alpha(2) (where alpha is the fine-structure constant, and g(p) is the proton g-factor) of \Delta y/y\ < 5 x 10(-6) at redshifts z = 0.25 and 0.68. These quasars are separated by a comoving distance of 3000 Mpc (for H-0=75 km s(-1) Mpc(-1) and q(0) = 0). We also derive limits on the time rates of change of \(g) over dot (p)/(g) over dot (p)\ < 1 x 10(-15) yr(-1) and \(alpha) over dot/(a) over dot\ < 5 x 10(-16) yr(-1) between the present epoch and z = 0.68, These limits are more than an order of magnitude smaller than previous results derived from highredshift measurements.

Factors controlling the origin of gas in Australian Bowen Basin coals

Open system pyrolysis (heating rate 10 degrees C/min) of coal maturity (vitrinite reflectance, VR) sequence (0.5%, 0.8% and 1.4% VR) demonstrates that there are two stages of thermogenic methane generation from Bowen Basin coals. The first and major stage shows a steady increase in methane generation maximising at 570 degrees C, corresponding to a VR of 2-2.5%. This is followed by a less intense methane generation which has not as yet maximised by 800 degrees C (equivalent to VR of 5%). Heavier (C2+) hydrocarbons are generated up to 570 degrees C after which only the C-1 (CH4, CO and CO2) gases are produced. The main phase of heavy hydrocarbon generation occurs between 420 and 510 degrees C. Over this temperature range,methane generation accounts for only a minor component, whereas the wet gases (C-2-C-5) are either in equal abundance or are more abundant by a factor of two than the liquid hydrocarbons. The yields of non-hydrocarbon gases CO2 and CO are greater then methane during the early stages of gas generation from an immature coal, subordinate to methane during the main phase of methane generation after which they are again dominant. Compositional data for desorbed and produced coal seam gases from the Bowen show that CO2 and wet gases are a minor component. This discrepancy between the proportion of wet gas components produced during open system pyrolysis and that observed in naturally matured coals may be the result of preferential migration of wet gas components, by dilution of methane generated during secondary cracking of bitumen, or kinetic effects associated with different activations for production of individual hydrocarbon gases. Extrapolation of results of artificial pyrolysis of the main organic components in coal to geological significant heating rates suggests that isotopically light methane to delta(13)C of -50 parts per thousand can be generated. Carbon isotope depletions in C-13 are further enhanced, however, as a result of trapping of gases over selected rank levels (instantaneous generation) which is a probable explanation for the range of delta(13)C values we have recorded in methane desorbed from Bowen Basin coals (-51 +/- 9 parts per thousand). Pervasive carbonate-rich veins in Bowen Basin coals are the product of magmatism-related hydrothermal activity. Furthermore, the pyrolysis results suggest an additional organic carbon source front CO2 released at any stage during the maturation history could mix in varying proportions with CO2 from the other sources. This interpretation is supported by C and O isotopic ratios, of carbonates that indicate mixing between magmatic and meteoric fluids. Also, the steep slope of the C and O isotope correlation trend suggests that the carbonates were deposited over a very narrow temperature interval basin-wide, or at relatively high temperatures (i.e., greater than 150 degrees C) where mineral-fluid oxygen isotope fractionations are small. These temperatures are high enough for catagenic production of methane and higher hydrocarbons from the coal and coal-derived bitumen. The results suggests that a combination of thermogenic generation of methane and thermodynamic processes associated with CH4/CO2 equilibria are the two most important factors that control the primary isotope and molecular composition of coal seam gases in the Bowen Basin. Biological process are regionally subordinate but may be locally significant. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV risk behaviour and prevention in prison: a bleach programme for inmates in NSW

One hundred and eighty-one inmates in AIDS education courses were surveyed about their risk behaviour and access to disinfectants for syringe cleaning in 1993, Overall, 40% of respondents reported HIV risk behaviour in prison. One-quarter of respondents reported injecting, of whom three-quarters reported sharing syringes in prison. Most respondents who shared syringes reported cleaning them with disinfectants (96%), even though only one-third reported having easy access to disinfectants. One-sixth of respondents reported sharing tattooing equipment, of whom two-thirds reported using a disinfectant to clean the tattoo needle. Few respondents reported fellatio (8%) or anal intercourse (4%) in prison. Although some respondents faced difficulty in obtaining disinfectants, almost all respondents cleaned syringes with bleach when sharing. High levels of risk behaviour in prison might be reduced by methadone maintenance and condom programmes. A trial of strict one-for-one syringe exchange warrants consideration.

The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Determination of activation energy distributions for chemisorption of oxygen on carbon: an improved approach

The present paper proposes an approach to obtaining the activation energy distribution for chemisorption of oxygen onto carbon surfaces, while simultaneously allowing for the activation energy dependence of the pre-exponential factor of the rate constant. Prior studies in this area have considered this factor to be uniform, thereby biasing estimated distributions. The results show that the derived activation energy distribution is not sensitive to the chemisorption mechanism because of the step function like property of the coverage. The activation energy distribution is essentially uniform for some carbons, and has two or possibly more discrete stages, suggestive of at least two types of sites, each with its own uniform distribution. The pre-exponential factors of the reactions are determined directly from the experimental data, and are found not to be constant as assumed in earlier work, but correlated with the activation energy. The latter results empirically follow an exponential function, supporting some earlier statistical and experimental work. The activation energy distribution obtained in the present paper permits improved correlation of chemisorption data in comparison to earlier studies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The spectra of red quasars

We measure the spectral properties of a representative sub-sample of 187 quasars, drawn from the Parkes Half-Jansky, Flat-radio-spectrum Sample (PHFS). Quasars with a wide range of rest-frame optical/UV continuum slopes are included in the analysis: their colours range over 2 < B-K < 7. We present composite spectra of red and blue sub-samples of the PHFS quasars. and tabulate their emission line properties. The median Hbeta and [0 111] emission line equivalent widths of the red quasar sub-sample are a factor of ten weaker than those of the blue quasar sub-sample. No significant differences are seen between the equivalent width distributions of the C IV, C III] and Mg 11 lines. Both the colours and the emission line equivalent widths of the red quasars can be explained by the addition of a featureless red synchrotron continuum component to an otherwise normal blue quasar spectrum. The red synchrotron component must have a spectrum at least as red as a power-law of the form F-nu proportional to nu(-2.8). The relative strengths of the blue and red components span two orders of magnitude at rest-frame 500 nm. The blue component is weaker relative to the red component in low optical luminosity sources. This suggests that the fraction of accretion energy going into optical emission from the jet is greater in low luminosity quasars. This correlation between colour and luminosity may be of use in cosmological distance scale work. This synchrotron model does not, however, fit similar to10% of the quasars, which have both red colours and high equivalent width emission lines. We hypothesise that these red, strong-lined quasars have intrinsically weak Big Blue Bumps. There is no discontinuity in spectral properties between the BL Lac objects in our sample and the other quasars. BL Lac objects appear to be the red, low equivalent width tail of a continuous distribution. The synchrotron emission component only dominates the spectrum at longer wavelengths, so existing BL Lac surveys will be biased against high redshift objects. This will affect measurements of BL Lac evolution. The blue PHFS quasars have significantly higher equivalent width C IV, Hbeta and [0 111] emission than a matched sample of optically selected QSOs.

Longevity and stability of cratonic lithosphere: Insights from numerical simulations of coupled mantle convection and continental tectonics

[1] The physical conditions required to provide for the tectonic stability of cratonic crust and for the relative longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere within a dynamic, convecting mantle are explored through a suite of numerical simulations. The simulations allow chemically distinct continents to reside within the upper thermal boundary layer of a thermally convecting mantle layer. A rheologic formulation, which models both brittle and ductile behavior, is incorporated to allow for plate-like behavior and the associated subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Several mechanisms that may stabilize cratons are considered. The two most often invoked mechanisms, chemical buoyancy and/or high viscosity of cratonic root material, are found to be relatively ineffective if cratons come into contact with subduction zones. High root viscosity can provide for stability and longevity but only within a thick root limit in which the thickness of chemically distinct, high-viscosity cratonic lithosphere exceeds the thickness of old oceanic lithosphere by at least a factor of 2. This end-member implies a very thick mechanical lithosphere for cratons. A high brittle yield stress for cratonic lithosphere as a whole, relative to oceanic lithosphere, is found to be an effective and robust means for providing stability and lithospheric longevity. This mode does not require exceedingly deep strength within cratons. A high yield stress for only the crustal or mantle component of the cratonic lithosphere is found to be less effective as detachment zones can then form at the crust-mantle interface which decreases the longevity potential of cratonic roots. The degree of yield stress variations between cratonic and oceanic lithosphere required for stability and longevity can be decreased if cratons are bordered by continental lithosphere that has a relatively low yield stress, i.e., mobile belts. Simulations that combine all the mechanisms can lead to crustal stability and deep root longevity for model cratons over several mantle overturn times, but the dominant stabilizing factor remains a relatively high brittle yield stress for cratonic lithosphere.

Background risk in generalized expected utility theory

In this paper, it is shown that, for a wide range of risk-averse generalized expected utility preferences, independent risks are complementary, contrary to the results for expected utility preferences satisfying conditions such as proper and standard risk aversion.

Crystal structure at 1.1 angstrom resolution of alpha-conotoxin PnIB: Comparison with alpha-conotoxins PnIA and GI

Conotoxins are small, cysteine-rich peptides isolated from the venom of Conus spp. of predatory marine snails, which selectively target specific receptors and ion channels critical to the functioning of the neuromuscular system. alpha-Conotoxins PnIA and PnIB are both 16-residue peptides (differing in sequence at only two positions) isolated from the molluscivorous snail Conus pennaceus. In contrast to the muscle-selective alpha-conotoxin GI from Conus geographus, PnIA and PnIB block the neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR). Here, we describe the crystal structure of PnIB, solved at a resolution of 1.1 Angstrom and phased using the Shake-and-Bake direct methods program. PnIB crystals are orthorhombic and belong to the space group P2(1)2(1)2(1) with the following unit cell dimensions: a = 14.6 Angstrom, b = 26.1 Angstrom, and c = 29.2 Angstrom. The final refined structure of alpha-conotoxin PnIB includes all 16 residues plus 23 solvent molecules and has an overall R-factor of 14.7% (R-free of 15.9%). The crystal structures of the alpha-conotoxins PnIB and PnIA are solved from different crystal forms, with different solvent contents. Comparison of the structures reveals them to be very similar, showing that the unique backbone and disulfide architecture is not strongly influenced by crystal lattice constraints or solvent interactions. This finding supports the notion that this structural scaffold is a rigid support for the presentation of important functional groups. The structures of PnIB and PnIA differ in their shape and surface charge distribution from that of GI.

Holocene sediments of Wistari Reef: towards a global quantification of coral reef related neritic sedimentation in the Holocene

Wistari Reef. within the southern Great Barrier Reef. is a shallow coral reef platform featuring a very clearly defined leeward accretionary wedge of carbonate sediments. The total global area of shallowly submerged coral reef has been quantified as 255 000 km(2). The question then becomes: What additional area of sediment of significant thickness is associated with the measured shallow reef areas T At Wistari Reef, the leeward sedimentary wedge has an area and a thickness that are roughly equal to the Holocene sediments that have accumulated on the platform. Several important observations can be made from these data. Firstly. the area of significant neritic carbonate sedimentation ( > 1 m/ka) associated with coral reefs is near 500000 km(2). Secondly, the production rate of neritic carbonates at Wistari Reef is almost 50%, less than the accumulation rate needed to obtain the volume of Holocene reef sediments observed. This implies that both production and accumulation neritic carbonate must have been more than a factor of two higher in the early to mid Holocene. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of general practitioner use among women in Australia

This study investigates the use of general practitioner services by women in Australia. Although there is a universal health insurance system (Medicare) in Australia, there are variations in access to services and out of pocket costs for services. Survey data from 2350 mid-age (45-50 years) and 2102 older (70-75 years) women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were linked with Medicare data to provide a range of individual and contextual variables hypothesised to explain general practitioner use. Structural equation modelling showed that physical health was the most powerful explanatory factor of general practitioner use. However, after adjusting for self-reported health, out of pocket cost per consultation was inversely associated with use of services. The out of pocket cost was generally lower for women with low socioeconomic status but cost was also directly related to geographical remoteness. Women living in more remote areas had higher out of pocket costs and poorer access to services. Women who reported better access to care were more likely to be satisfied with their most recent general practice consultation and less likely to be sceptical of the value of medical care. These results show the need for health policies that improve the equitable use of general practitioner services in Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of a suburban railway pedestrian crossing safety programme

This study evaluated a programme of educational and environmental (access prevention) interventions designed to reduce the incidence of illegal and unsafe crossing of the rail corridor at a suburban station in Auckland, New Zealand. Immediately after the programme of interventions, the proportion of those crossing the rail corridor by walking across the tracks directly rather than using the nearby overbridge had decreased substantially. Three months later, the decrease was even greater. However, the educational and environmental interventions were introduced simultaneously so that the effects of each could not be separated, nor could other unmeasured factors be ruled out. Anonymous surveys administered immediately before and 3 months after the interventions indicated that while awareness of the illegality of walking across the tracks had increased slightly, perception of risk had not changed. This suggests that the educational interventions may have had less effect than the access prevention measures. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.