An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) inferred from 28S rDNA sequences

The current classification of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) is based on a phylogeny generated from morphological characters. The present study tests the morphological phylogenetic hypothesis using molecular methods. Sequences from domains C2 and D1 and the partial domains C1 and D2 from the 28S rDNA gene for 26 species of monocotylids from six of the seven subfamilies were used. Trees were generated using maximum parsimony, neighbour joining and maximum likelihood algorithms. The maximum parsimony tree, with branches showing less than 70% bootstrap support collapsed, had a topology identical to that obtained using the maximum likelihood analysis. The neighbour joining tree, with branches showing less than 70% support collapsed. differed only in its placement of Heterocotyle capricornensis as the sister group to the Decacotylinae clade. The molecular tree largely supports the subfamilies established using morphological characters. Differences are primarily how the subfamilies are related to each other. The monophyly of the Calicotylinae and Merizocotylinae and their sister group relationship is supported by high bootstrap values in all three methods, but relationships within the Merizocotylinae are unclear. Merizocotyle is paraphyletic and our data suggest that Mycteronastes and Thaumatocotyle, which were synonymized with Merizocotyle after the morphological cladistic analysis, should perhaps be resurrected as valid genera. The monophyly of the Monocotylinae and Decacotylinae is also supported by high bootstrap values. The Decacotylinae, which was considered previously to be the sister group to the Calicotylinae plus Merizocotylinae, is grouped in an unresolved polychotomy with the Monocotylinae and members of the Heterocotylinae. According to our molecular data, the Heterocotylinae is paraphyletic. Molecular data support a sister group relationship between Troglocephalus rhinobatidis and Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis to the exclusion of the other species of Neoheterocotyle and recognition of Troglocephalus renders Neoheterocotyle,le paraphyletic. We propose Troglocephalus incertae sedis. An updated classification and full species list of the Monocotylidae is provided. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Randomised controlled trial of telemedicine for new neurological outpatient referrals

Objective-To test the hypothesis that telemedicine for new patient referrals to neurological outpatients is as efficient and acceptable as conventional face to face consultation. Methods-A randomised controlled trial between two groups: face to face (FF) and telemedicine (TM). This study was carried out between a neurological centre and outlying clinics at two distant hospitals linked by identical medium cost commercial interactive video conferencing equipment with ISDN lines transmitting information at 384 kbits/s. The same two neurologists carried out both arms of the study. Of the 168 patients who were suitable for the study, 86 were randomised into the telemedicine group and 82 into the face to face group. Outcome measures were (I) consultation process: (a) number of investigations; (b) number of drugs prescribed; (c) number of patient reviews and (2) patient satisfaction: (a) confidence in consultation; (b) technical aspects of consultation; (c) aspects surrounding confidentiality. Diagnostic categories were also measured to check equivalence between the groups: these were structural neurological, structural non-neurological, nonstructural, and uncertain. Results-Diagnostic categories were similar (p>0.5) between the two groups. Patients in the telemedicine group had significantly more investigations (p=0.001). There was no difference in the number of drugs prescribed (p>0.5). Patients were generally satisfied with both types of consultation process except for concerns about confidentiality and embarrassment in the telemedicine group (p=0.017 and p=0.005 respectively). Conclusion-Telemedicine for new neurological outpatients is possible and feasible but generates more investigations and is less well accepted than face to face examination.

Iatrogenic bile duct injury: The scourge of laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has become the first-line surgical treatment of calculous gall-bladder disease and the benefits over open cholecystectomy are well known. In the early years of LC, the higher rate of bile duct injuries compared with open cholecystectomy was believed to be due to the 'learning curve' and would dissipate with increased experience. The purpose of the present paper was to review a tertiary referral unit's experience of bile duct injuries induced by LC. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on all patients referred for management of an iatrogenic bile duct injury from 1981 to 2000. For injuries sustained at LC, details of time between LC and recognition of the injury, time from injury to definitive repair, type of injury, use of intraoperative cholangiography (IOC), definitive repair and postoperative outcome were recorded. The type of injury sustained at open cholecystectomy was similarly classified to allow the severity of injury to be compared. Results: There were 131 patients referred for management of an iatrogenic bile duct injury that occurred at open cholecystectomy (n = 62), liver resection (n = 5) and at LC (n = 64). Only 39% of bile duct injuries were recognized at the time of LC. Following conversion to open operation, half the subsequent procedures were considered inappropriate. When the injury was not recognized during LC, 70% of patients developed bile leak/peritonitis, almost half of whom were referred, whereas the rest underwent a variety of operative procedures by the referring surgeon. The remainder developed jaundice or abnormal liver function tests and cholangitis. An IOC was performed in 43% of cases, but failed to identify an injury in two-thirds of patients. The bile duct injuries that occurred at LC were of greater severity than with open cholecystectomy. Following definitive repair, there was one death (1.6%). Ninety-two per cent of patients had an uncomplicated recovery and there was one late stricture requiring surgical revision. Conclusions: The early prediction that the rate of injury during LC would decline substantially with increased experience has not been fulfilled. Bile duct injury that occurs at LC is of greater severity than with open cholecystectomy. Bile duct injury is recognized during LC in less than half the cases. Evidence is accruing that the use of cholangiography reduces the risk and severity of injury and, when correctly interpreted, increases the chance of recognition of bile duct injury during the procedure. Prevention is the key but, should an injury occur, referral to a specialist in biliary reconstructive surgery is indicated.

Telemedicine for new neurological outpatients: putting a randomized controlled trial in the context of everyday practice

In a retrospective review, the telemedical management of 65 outpatients from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of telemedicine for non-urgent referrals to a consultant neurologist was compared with the management of 76 patients seen face to face in the same trial, with that of 150 outpatients seen in the neurology clinics of district general hospitals and with that of 102 neurological outpatients seen by general physicians. Outcome measures were the numbers of investigations and of patient reviews. The telemedicine group did not differ significantly from the 150 patients seen face to face by neurologists in hospital clinics in terms of either the number of investigations or the number of reviews they received. Patients from the RCT seen face to face had significantly fewer investigations but a similar number of reviews to the other 150 patients seen face to face by neurologists (the disparity in the number of investigations may explain the negative result for telemedicine in that RCT). Patients with neurological symptoms assessed by general physicians had significantly more investigations and were reviewed significantly more often than all the other groups. Patients from the RCT seen by telemedicine were not managed significantly differently from those seen face to face by neurologists in hospital clinics but had significantly fewer investigations and follow-ups than those patients managed by general physicians. The results suggest that management of new neurological outpatients by neurologists using telemedicine is similar to that by neurologists using a face-to-face consultation, and is more efficient than management by general physicians.

Ecological criteria for evaluating candidate sites for marine reserves

Several schemes have been developed to help select the locations of marine reserves. All of them combine social, economic, and biological criteria, and few offer any guidance as to how to prioritize among the criteria identified. This can imply that the relative weights given to different criteria are unimportant. Where two sites are of equal value ecologically; then socioeconomic criteria should dominate the choice of which should be protected. However, in many cases, socioeconomic criteria are given equal or greater weight than ecological considerations in the choice of sites. This can lead to selection of reserves with little biological value that fail to meet many of the desired objectives. To avoid such a possibility, we develop a series of criteria that allow preliminary evaluation of candidate sites according to their relative biological values in advance of the application of socioeconomic criteria. We include criteria that,. while not strictly biological, have a strong influence on the species present or ecological processes. Out scheme enables sites to be assessed according to their biodiversity, the processes which underpin that diversity, and the processes that support fisheries and provide a spectrum of other services important to people. Criteria that capture biodiversity values include biogeographic representation, habitat representation and heterogeneity, and presence of species or populations of special interest (e.g., threatened species). Criteria that capture sustainability of biodiversity and fishery values include the size of reserves necessary to protect viable habitats, presence of exploitable species, vulnerable life stages, connectivity among reserves, links among ecosystems, and provision of ecosystem services to people. Criteria measuring human and natural threats enable candidate sites to be eliminated from consideration if risks are too great, but also help prioritize among sites where threats can be mitigated by protection. While our criteria can be applied to the design of reserve networks, they also enable choice of single reserves to be made in the context of the attributes of existing protected areas. The overall goal of our scheme is to promote the development of reserve networks that will maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning at large scales. The values of eco-system goods and services for people ultimately depend on meeting this objective.