The use of cusum analysis in the early detection and management of hospital bed occupancy crises

Objective: To assess the value of cusum analysis in hospital bed management. Design: Comparative analysis of medical patient flows, bed occupancy, and emergency department admission rates and access block over 2 years. Setting: Internal Medicine Services and Emergency Department in a teaching hospital. Interventions: Improvements in bed use and changes in the level of available beds. Main outcome measures: Average length of stay; percentage occupancy of available beds; number of patients waiting more than 8 hours for admission (access block); number of medical patients occupying beds in non-medical wards; and number of elective surgical admissions. Results: Cusum analysis provided a simple means of revealing important trends in patient flows that were not obvious in conventional time-series data. This prompted improvements in bed use that resulted in a decrease of 9500 occupied bed-days over a year. Unfortunately and unexpectedly, after some initial improvement, the levels of access block, medical ward congestion and elective surgical admissions all then deteriorated significantly. This was probably caused by excessive bed closures in response to the initial improvement in bed use. Conclusion: Cusum analysis is a useful technique for the early detection of significant changes in patient flows and bed use, and in determining the appropriate number of beds required for a given rate of patient flow.

A pragmatic 2 × 2 × 2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial of educational outreach visiting and case conferencing in palliative care—methodology of the Palliative Care Trial [ISRCTN 81117481]

The demand for palliative care is increasing, yet there are few data on the best models of care nor well-validated interventions that translate current evidence into clinical practice. Supporting multidisciplinary patient-centered palliative care while successfully conducting a large clinical trial is a challenge. The Palliative Care Trial (PCT) is a pragmatic 2 x 2 x 2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial that tests the ability of educational outreach visiting and case conferencing to improve patient-based outcomes such as performance status and pain intensity. Four hundred sixty-one consenting patients and their general practitioners (GPs) were randomized to the following: (1) GP educational outreach visiting versus usual care, (2) Structured patient and caregiver educational outreach visiting versus usual care and (3) A coordinated palliative care model of case conferencing versus the standard model of palliative care in Adelaide, South Australia (3:1 randomization). Main outcome measures included patient functional status over time, pain intensity, and resource utilization. Participants were followed longitudinally until death or November 30, 2004. The interventions are aimed at translating current evidence into clinical practice and there was particular attention in the trial's design to addressing common pitfalls for clinical studies in palliative care. Given the need for evidence about optimal interventions and service delivery models that improve the care of people with life-limiting illness, the results of this rigorous, high quality clinical trial will inform practice. Initial results are expected in mid 2005. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.