Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Using siting algorithms in the design of marine reserve networks

Using benthic habitat data from the Florida Keys (USA), we demonstrate how siting algorithms can help identify potential networks of marine reserves that comprehensively represent target habitat types. We applied a flexible optimization tool-simulated annealing-to represent a fixed proportion of different marine habitat types within a geographic area. We investigated the relative influence of spatial information, planning-unit size, detail of habitat classification, and magnitude of the overall conservation goal on the resulting network scenarios. With this method, we were able to identify many adequate reserve systems that met the conservation goals, e.g., representing at least 20% of each conservation target (i.e., habitat type) while fulfilling the overall aim of minimizing the system area and perimeter. One of the most useful types of information provided by this siting algorithm comes from an irreplaceability analysis, which is a count of the number of, times unique planning units were included in reserve system scenarios. This analysis indicated that many different combinations of sites produced networks that met the conservation goals. While individual 1-km(2) areas were fairly interchangeable, the irreplaceability analysis highlighted larger areas within the planning region that were chosen consistently to meet the goals incorporated into the algorithm. Additionally, we found that reserve systems designed with a high degree of spatial clustering tended to have considerably less perimeter and larger overall areas in reserve-a configuration that may be preferable particularly for sociopolitical reasons. This exercise illustrates the value of using the simulated annealing algorithm to help site marine reserves: the approach makes efficient use of;available resources, can be used interactively by conservation decision makers, and offers biologically suitable alternative networks from which an effective system of marine reserves can be crafted.

Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation

Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of active lecturing in a computer networks course

The article describes an attempt to improve student learning outcomes in a computer networks course by making lectures more active learning experiences. Quick quizzes, group and individual exercises, the review of student questions, as well as multiple breaks, were incorporated into the weekly three-hour lectures. Student responses to the modified lectures was overwhelmingly positive: over 85% of respondents agreed that the lectures aided understanding, with large majorities of the respondents finding the individual activities useful to their learning. Although student examination performance improved over the previous year, performance on an examination question that was designed to examine deep understanding remained unchanged.

Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide in hypertensive patients with exertional dyspnea and normal left ventricular ejection fraction and correlation with new echocardiographic indexes of systolic and diastolic function

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Poor correlation of mid-femoral measurements by CT and hip measurements by DXA in the elderly

Background and aims: Hip fracture is a devastating event in terms of outcome in the elderly, and the best predictor of hip fracture risk is hip bone density, usually measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). However, bone density can also be ascertained from computerized tomography (CT) scans, and mid-thigh scans are frequently employed to assess the muscle and fat composition of the lower limb. Therefore, we examined if it was possible to predict hip bone density using mid-femoral bone density. Methods: Subjects were 803 ambulatory white and black women and men, aged 70-79 years, participating in the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Bone mineral content (BMC, g) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg/cm(3)) of the mid-femur were obtained by CT, whereas BMC and areal bone mineral density (aBMD, g/cm(2)) of the hip (femoral neck and trochanter) were derived from DXA. Results: In regression analyses stratified by race and sex, the coefficient of determination was low with mid-femoral BMC, explaining 6-27% of the variance in hip BMC, with a standard error of estimate (SEE) ranging from 16 to 22% of the mean. For mid-femur vBMD, the variance explained in hip aBMD was 2-17% with a SEE ranging from 15 to 18%. Adjusting aBMD to approximate volumetric density did not improve the relationships. In addition, the utility of fracture prediction was examined. Forty-eight subjects had one or more fractures (various sites) during a mean follow-up of 4.07 years. In logistic regression analysis, there was no association between mid-femoral vBMD and fracture (all fractures), whereas a 1 SD increase in hip BMD was associated with reduced odds for fracture of similar to60%. Conclusions: These results do not support the use of CT-derived mid-femoral vBMD or BMC to predict DXA-measured hip bone mineral status, irrespective of race or sex in older adults. Further, in contrast to femoral neck and trochanter BMD, mid-femur vBMD was not able to predict fracture (all fractures). (C) 2003, Editrice Kurtis.