Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

The design of hazard risk assessment matrices for ranking occupational health risks and their application in mining and minerals processing

Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.

Microstrip circular phased array design and development using microwave antenna CAD tools

The complex design and development of a planar multilayer phased array antenna in microstrip technology can be simplified using two commercially available design tools 1) Ansoft Ensemble and 2) HP-EEsof Touchstone. In the approach presented here, Touchstone is used to design RF switches and phase shifters whose scattering parameters are incorporated in Ensemble simulations using its black box tool. Using this approach, Ensemble is able to fully analyze the performance of radiating and beamforming layers of a phased array prior to its manufacturing. This strategy is demonstrated in a design example of a 12-element linearly-polarized circular phased array operating at L band. A comparison between theoretical and experimental results of the array is demonstrated.

Links between attachment orientations and dispositional and diary-based measures of disclosure in dating couples: A study of actor and partner effects

Issues concerning the influence of attachment characteristics on own and partner's disclosure were addressed using a sample of 113 couples in medium-term dating relationships. Individual differences in attachment were assessed in terms of relationship anxiety and avoidance. Disposition to disclose was assessed using questionnaire measures of self-disclosure, relationship-focused disclosure, and the ability to elicit disclosure from the partner; in addition, structured diaries were used to assess aspects of disclosure (amount, intimacy, emotional tone, and satisfaction) in the context of couples' everyday interactions. Couple-level analyses showed that avoidance strongly predicted dispositional measures of disclosure, whereas anxiety (particularly partner's anxiety) was related to negative evaluations of everyday interactions. Interactive effects of attachment dimensions and gender were also obtained, highlighting the complexity of communication behavior. The results are discussed in terms of the goals and strategies associated with working models of attachment.

Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Opportunity cost of ad hoc marine reserve design decisions: an example from South Australia

Like many states and territories, South Australia has a legacy of marine reserves considered to be inadequate to meet current conservation objectives. In this paper we configured exploratory marine reserve systems, using the software MARXAN, to examine how efficiently South Australia's existing marine reserves contribute to quantitative biodiversity conservation targets. Our aim was to compare marine reserve systems that retain South Australia's existing marine reserves with reserve systems that are free to either ignore or incorporate them. We devised a new interpretation of irreplaceability to identify planning units selected more than could be expected from chance alone. This is measured by comparing the observed selection frequency for an individual planning unit with a predicted selection frequency distribution. Knowing which sites make a valuable contribution to efficient marine reserve system design allows us to determine how well South Australia's existing reserves contribute to reservation goals when representation targets are set at 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 50% of conservation features. Existing marine reserves that tail to contribute to efficient marine reserve systems constitute 'opportunity costs'. We found that despite spanning less than 4% of South Australian state waters, locking in the existing ad hoc marine reserves presented considerable opportunity costs. Even with representation targets set at 50%, more than halt of South Australia's existing marine reserves were selected randomly or less in efficient marine reserve systems. Hence, ad hoc marine reserve systems are likely to be inefficient and may compromise effective conservation of marine biodiversity.

Identifying the communication activities of older people with aphasia: Evidence from naturalistic observation

Background: Increasingly there is a call from clinicians and researchers for measures that document the impact of aphasia on a person's everyday communication. Do existing assessments of communication disability adequately sample communication activities relevant to our clients? Communication skills and networks change with age. A need exists to determine the everyday communication activities of older people and in particular those with aphasia. Aims: The primary aim of this study was to describe and compare the everyday communication activities of older people with aphasia and healthy older people who are living in the community. A secondary aim was to investigate the content validity of the American Speech-Language Hearing Association Functional Assessment of Communication Skills for Adults (ASHA FACS, 1997) for older Australians. Methods & Procedures: Naturalistic observation was the method of choice for detailing the everyday communication of 15 older people with chronic aphasia following stroke and a matched group of 15 healthy older people who were living in the community. Researchers, in the role of participant observer, took field notes for 8 hours, over three occasions within a week. A total of 240 hours of observation have been coded in terms of communication activity, topic, communication partners, and place of communication. A brief 5-day diary served to check the representativeness of the observational data. After each hour of observation, the researcher checked which ASHA FACS items had been observed. Outcomes & Results: Naturalistic observation provided a rich, rigorous, and systematic methodology for detailing the dynamics and complexities of authentic communication. The most common communication activities for both groups were conversations at home and in social groups. Real-life communication was revealed to serve the dual purposes of transaction and interaction. Results indicate that older people with aphasia engage in similar communication activities to healthy older people although differences were evident in the frequency of communication and in specific activities such as story telling, writing, commenting, and acknowledging. ASHA FACS items were generally relevant to older Australians living in the community. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that communication activity is multifaceted in terms of the type of communication and contextual factors. The observational data describe the effects of aphasia on a person's everyday communication activity and reveal the impact of aphasia on the social functions of communication including sharing information, maintaining and establishing relationships, and telling one's story. Functional communication assessment requires a greater focus on the interactional and uniquely interpersonal aspects of social communication.

Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation

Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning the dynamics of embedded clauses

Recent work by Siegelmann has shown that the computational power of recurrent neural networks matches that of Turing Machines. One important implication is that complex language classes (infinite languages with embedded clauses) can be represented in neural networks. Proofs are based on a fractal encoding of states to simulate the memory and operations of stacks. In the present work, it is shown that similar stack-like dynamics can be learned in recurrent neural networks from simple sequence prediction tasks. Two main types of network solutions are found and described qualitatively as dynamical systems: damped oscillation and entangled spiraling around fixed points. The potential and limitations of each solution type are established in terms of generalization on two different context-free languages. Both solution types constitute novel stack implementations - generally in line with Siegelmann's theoretical work - which supply insights into how embedded structures of languages can be handled in analog hardware.

Effect of fatigue on torque output and electromyographic measures of trunk muscles during isometric axial rotation

Objectives: To examine the changes in torque output resulting from fatigue, as well as changes in electromyographic measures of trunk muscles during isometric axial rotation and to compare these changes between directions of axial rotation. Design: Subjects performed fatiguing right and left isometric axial rotation of the trunk at 80% of maximum voluntary contraction while standing upright. Setting: A rehabilitation center. Participants: Twenty-three men with no history of back pain. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Surface electromyographic Signals were recorded from 6 trunk muscles bilaterally. The primary torque in the transverse plane and the coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were also measured. Results: During the fatiguing axial rotation contraction, coupling torques of both sagittal and coronal planes were slightly decreased and no difference was found between directions of axial rotation. Decreasing median frequency and an increase in electromyographic amplitude were also found in trunk muscles with different degrees of changes in individual muscles. There were significant differences (P