Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Cost effectiveness of adding magnetic resonance imaging to the usual management of suspected scaphoid fractures

Objective: To determine the cost effectiveness of a magnetic resonance imaging scan (MRI) within 5 days of injury compared with the usual management of occult scaphoid fracture. Methods: All patients with suspected scaphoid fractures in five hospitals were invited to participate in a randomised controlled trial of usual treatment with or without an MRI scan. Healthcare costs were compared, and a cost effectiveness analysis of the use of MRI in this scenario was performed. Results: Twenty eight of the 37 patients identified were randomised: 17 in the control group, 11 in the MRI group. The groups were similar at baseline and follow up in terms of number of scaphoid fractures, other injuries, pain, and function. Of the patients without fracture, the MRI group had significantly fewer days immobilised: a median of 3.0 (interquartile range 3.0-3.0) v 10.0 (7-12) in the control group (p = 0.006). The MRI group used fewer healthcare units (median 3.0, interquartile range 2.0-4.25) than the control group (5.0, 3.0-6.5) (p = 0.03 for the difference). However, the median cost of health care in the MRI group ($594.35 AUD, $551.35-667.23) was slightly higher than in the control group ($428.15, $124.40-702.65) (p = 0.19 for the difference). The mean incremental cost effectiveness ratio derived from this simulation was that MRI costs $44.37 per day saved from unnecessary immobilisation (95% confidence interval $4.29 to $101.02). An illustrative willingness to pay was calculated using a combination of the trials measure of the subjects' individual productivity losses and the average daily earnings. Conclusions: Use of MRI in the management of occult scaphoid fracture reduces the number of days of unnecessary immobilisation and use of healthcare units. Healthcare costs increased non-significantly in relation to the use of MRI in this setting. However, when productivity losses are considered, MRI may be considered cost effective, depending on the individual case.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Underuse of beta-blockers following myocardial infarction: a tale of two cities

Aims: To measure factors associated with underuse of beta-blocker therapy after myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: The Newcastle and Perth collaborating centres of the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA project (to MONItor trends and determinants of Cardiovascular disease) systematically evaluated all patients admitted to hospital in their respective regions with possible MI. A total of 1766 patients in Newcastle and 4503 patients in Perth, discharged from hospital after confirmed MI from 1985 to 1993, were studied, Rates of beta-blocker use before and after hospital discharge were evaluated and correlates of beta-blocker use determined. Results: Beta-blocker use was similar in Newcastle and Perth before MI (21% of patients in each centre). During hospital admission, beta-blocker therapy was initiated nearly twice as frequently in Perth compared with Newcastle (66 vs 36%, respectively) and more patients were discharged from hospital on beta-blockers in Perth (68%) than in Newcastle (45%). The main factors associated with underuse of beta-blockers in multivariate analysis were geographical centre (odds ratio (OR) for Newcastle compared with Perth 0.3 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3-0.3), a history of previous MI (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7), admission to hospital in earlier years (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.4 for years 1985-87 compared with years 1991-93), diabetes (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.8) and the concomitant use of diuretics (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6) and calcium antagonists (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.8). Conclusions: Underuse of beta-blockers after MI was strongly related to hospital prescribing patterns and not to community use of beta-blockers. Underuse occurred in patients with diabetes and in patients with left ventricular dysfunction, patients who stand to benefit most from beta-blocker use following MI.

Case fatality after an acute cardiac event: the effect of smoking and alcohol consumption

The objective of this study was to use a population-based register of acute cardiac events to investigate the association between survival after an acute event and history of smoking and alcohol consumption. The population was all residents of the Lower Hunter Region of Australia aged 25 to 69 years who suffered myocardial infarction or sudden cardiac death between 1986 and 1994. Among 10,170 events, 2504 resulted in death within 28 days. After adjusting for sex, age and medical history, current smokers had a similar risk of dying after an acute cardiac event to never-smokers [odds ratio (OR)=1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94-1.29]. People who consumed more than 8 alcoholic drinks per day on more than 2 days per week (OR=1.93, 95% CI 1.39-2.69) and former moderate to heavy drinkers (OR=4.59, 95% CI 3.65-5.76) were more likely to die than people who were nondrinkers. The results of this large community study, suggesting no effect of smoking on case fatality and an increased risk of death after an acute cardiac event for heavy drinkers and former moderate to heavy drinkers, highlight the importance of a population view of case fatality. These results can also shed some light on reasons for the paradoxical results from clinical trials. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of body water compartments in cirrhosis by multiple-frequency bioelectrical-impedance analysis

Estimation of total body water by measuring bioelectrical impedance at a fixed frequency of 50 kHz is useful in assessing body composition in healthy populations. However, in cirrhosis, the distribution of total body water between the extracellular and intracellular compartments is of greater clinical importance. We report an evaluation of a new multiple-frequency bioelectrical-impedance analysis technique (MFBIA) that may quantify the distribution of total body water in cirrhosis. In 21 cirrhotic patients and 21 healthy control subjects, impedance to the Row of current was measured at frequencies ranging from 4 to 1012 kHz. These measurements were used to estimate body water compartments and then compared with total body water and extracellular water determined by isotope methodology. In cirrhotic patients, extracellular water and total body water (as determined by isotope methods) were well predicted by MFBIA (r = 0.73 and 0.89, respectively).;However, the 95% confidence intervals of the limits of agreement between MFBIA and the isotope methods were +/- 14% and +/-9% for cirrhotics (extracellular water and total body water, respectively) and +/-9% and +/-9% for cirrhotics without ascites. The 95% confidence intervals estimated from the control group were +/-10% and +/-5% for extracellular water and total body water, respectively. Thus, despite strong correlations between MFBIA and isotope measurements, the relatively large limits of agreement with accepted techniques suggest that the MFBIA technique requires further refinement before it can be routinely used to determine the nutritional assessment of individual cirrhotic patients. Nutrition 2001,17.31-34. (C)Elsevier Science Inc. 2001.

Association of bowel movement frequency and use of laxatives with the occurrence of symptomatic gallstone disease in a prospective study of women

OBJECTIVES: The authors prospectively examined the association between bowel movement frequency (used as a proxy for intestinal transit), laxative use, and the risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. METHODS: A total of 79,829 women, aged 36–61 yr, without a history of symptomatic gallstone disease and free of cancer, responded to a mailed questionnaire in 1982 that assessed bowel movement frequency and use of laxatives. Between 1984 and 1996, 4,443 incident cases of symptomatic gallstone disease were documented. Relative risks (RRs) of symptomatic gallstone disease and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: After controlling for age and established risk factors, the multivariate RRs were, compared to women with daily bowel movements, 0.97 (95% CI 0.86–1.08) for women with bowel movements every third day or less, and 1.00 (95% CI 0.91–1.11) for women with bowel movement more than once daily. No trend was evident. As compared to women who never used laxatives in 1982, a significant modest inverse association was seen for monthly laxative use, with a multivariate RR of 0.84 (95% CI 0.72–0.98), and weekly to daily laxative use was associated with a RR of 0.88 (95% CI 0.78–1.02). CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support an association between infrequent bowel movements and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease in women, and indicate that simple questions directed at bowel movement frequency are unlikely to enhance our ability to predict risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. The slightly inverse association between use of laxatives and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease may be due to a mechanism that is not related to bowel movement frequency.

The microsomal epoxide hydrolase Tyr113His polymorphism: Association with risk of ovarian cancer

Functional significance has been demonstrated in vitro for the exon 3 T-->C Tyr113His amino acid substitution polymorphism of the microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX) gene. The higher activity or fast TT genotype was previously reported to be associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and this association may reflect enhanced activation of endogenous or exogenous substrates to more reactive and mutagenic derivatives. Components of cigarette smoke are examples of exogenous substrates subject to such bioactivation, and smoking exposure may thus modify the risk associated with the EPHX polymorphism. We examined 545 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and 287 unaffected controls for this EPHXT-C genetic variant to investigate whether, in the Australian population, the TT genotype was associated with (i) specific ovarian tumor characteristics; (ii) risk of ovarian cancer, overall or for specific subgroups; and (iii) risk of ovarian cancer in smokers specifically. Genotyping was carried out using the Perkin-Elmer ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detection System for fluorogenic polymerase chain reaction allelic discrimination. Stratification of the ovarian cancer cases according to tumor behavior (low malignant potential or invasive), grade, stage, and p53 immunohistochemical status failed to show any heterogeneity with respect to the genotype defined by the EPHX polymorphism. There was a suggestion of heterogeneity with respect to histologic subtype (P= 0.03), largely due to a decreased frequency of the TT genotype in endometrioid tumors. EPHX genotype distribution did not differ significantly between unaffected controls and ovarian cancer cases (overall, low malignant potential, or invasive) either overall or after stratification by smoking status. However, the TT genotype was associated with a decreased risk of invasive ovarian cancer of the endometrioid subtype specifically (age-adjusted odds ratio = 0.38, 95% confidence interval=0.17-0.87). The results suggest that the proposed EPHX-mediated bioactivation of components of cigarette smoke to mutagenic forms is unlikely to be involved in the etiology of ovarian cancer in general but that a greater rate of EPHX-mediated detoxification may decrease the risk of endometrioid ovarian cancer. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

No significant association between progesterone receptor exon 4 Val660Leu G/T polymorphism and risk of ovarian cancer

Epidemiological studies suggest that ovarian cancer is an endocrine-related tumour, and progesterone exposure specifically may decrease the risk of ovarian cancer. To assess whether the progesterone receptor (PR) exon 4 valine to leucine amino acid variant is associated with specific tumour characteristics or with overall risk of ovarian cancer, we examined 551 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and 298 unaffected controls for the underlying G-->T nucleotide substitution polymorphism. Stratification of the ovarian cancer cases according to tumour behaviour (low malignant potential or invasive), histology, grade or stage failed to reveal any heterogeneity with respect to the genotype defined by the PR exon 4 polymorphism. Furthermore, the genotype distribution did not differ significantly between ovarian cancer cases and unaffected controls. Compared with the GG genotype, the age-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for risk of ovarian cancer was 0.78 (0.57-1.08) for the GT genotype, and 1.39 (0.47-4.14) for the TT genotype. In conclusion, the PR exon 4 codon 660 leucine variant encoded by the T allele does not appear to be associated with ovarian tumour behaviour, histology, stage or grade. This variant is also not associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and is unlikely to be associated with a large decrease in ovarian cancer risk, although we cannot rule out a moderate inverse association between the GT genotype and ovarian cancer.

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5' untranslated region of RAD51 and risk of cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

RAD51 colocalizes with both BRCA1 and BRCA2, and genetic variants in RAD51 would be candidate BRCA1/2 modifiers. We searched for RAD51 polymorphisms by sequencing 20 individuals. We compared the polymorphism allele frequencies between female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with and without breast or ovarian cancer and between population-based ovarian cancer cases with BRCA1/2 mutations to cases and controls without mutations. We discovered two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at positions 135 g-->c and 172 g-->t of the 5' untranslated region. In an initial group of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, 14 (21%) of 67 breast cancer cases carried a c allele at RAD51:135 g-->c, whereas 8 (7%) of 119 women without breast cancer carried this allele. In a second set of 466 mutation carriers from three centers, the association of RAD51:135 g-->c with breast cancer risk was not confirmed. Analyses restricted to the 216 BRCA2 mutation carriers, however, showed a statistically significant association of the 135 c allele with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence limit, 1.4-40). BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with ovarian cancer were only about one half as likely to carry the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP. Analysis of the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP in 738 subjects from an Israeli ovarian cancer case-control study was consistent with a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with the c allele. We have identified a RAD51 5' untranslated region SNP that may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA2 mutation carriers. The biochemical basis of this risk modifier is currently unknown.

Cigarette smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease in two prospective studies

An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

Coffee and alcohol consumption and the risk of pancreatic cancer in two prospective United States cohorts

Although most prospective cohort studies do not support an association between coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer, the findings for alcohol are inconsistent. Recently, a large prospective cohort study of women reported statistically significant elevations in risk of pancreatic cancer for both coffee and alcoholic beverage consumption. We obtained data on coffee, alcohol, and other dietary factors using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires administered at baseline (1986 in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1980 in the Nurses’ Health Study) and in subsequent follow-up questionnaires. Data on other risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including cigarette smoking, were also available. Individuals with a history of cancer at study initiation were excluded from all of the analyses. During the 1,907,222 person-years of follow-up, 288 incident cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed. The data were analyzed separately for each cohort, and results were pooled to compute overall relative risks (RR). Neither coffee nor alcohol intakes were associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in either cohort or after pooling the results (pooled RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.27–1.43, for >3 cups of coffee/day versus none; and pooled RR, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.57–1.76, for >=30 grams of alcohol/day versus none). The associations did not change with analyses examining different latency periods for coffee and alcohol. Similarly, no statistically significant associations were observed for intakes of tea, decaffeinated coffee, total caffeine, or alcoholic beverages. Data from these two large cohorts do not support any overall association between coffee intake or alcohol intake and risk of pancreatic cancer.