Multiple imputation for body mass index: lessons from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

In large epidemiological studies missing data can be a problem, especially if information is sought on a sensitive topic or when a composite measure is calculated from several variables each affected by missing values. Multiple imputation is the method of choice for 'filling in' missing data based on associations among variables. Using an example about body mass index from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, we identify a subset of variables that are particularly useful for imputing values for the target variables. Then we illustrate two uses of multiple imputation. The first is to examine and correct for bias when data are not missing completely at random. The second is to impute missing values for an important covariate; in this case omission from the imputation process of variables to be used in the analysis may introduce bias. We conclude with several recommendations for handling issues of missing data. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Schistosome transcriptome analysis at the cutting edge

We live in the era of post-genomics, a term that was, until recently, inappropriate when considering the blood flukes of humans because of the relative lack of knowledge of the schistosome genome. The position has, however, changed dramatically following the recent publication of two landmark papers on transcriptome analysis of Schistosoma japonicum and Schistosoma mansoni. In a quantum leap, both studies report on the identification of many novel genes and genes not previously known from schistosomes. The datasets provide new insights into the biology of the schistosomes and offer an opportunity for identification of potential antischistosome vaccine candidates and drug targets. Remarkable recent progress has also been achieved in genomic sequencing, and completed genomes for both species can be expected shortly.

Field evaluation of a novel colorimetric method - Double-site enzyme-linked lactate dehydrogenase immunodetection assay - To determine drug susceptibilities of Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates from northwestern Thailand

A double-site enzyme-linked lactate dehydrogenase enzyme inummodetection assay was tested against field isolates of Plasmodium falciparum for assessing in vitro drug susceptibilities to a wide range of antimalarial drugs. Its sensitivity allowed the use of parasite densities as low as 200 parasites/mul of blood. Being a nonisotopic, colorimetric assay, it lies within the capabilities of a modest laboratory at the district level.

Scabies: more than just an irritation

Human scabies, caused by skin infestation with the arthropod mite, Sarcoptes scabiei, typically results in a papular, intensely pruritic eruption involving the interdigital spaces, and flexure creases. Recent research has led to a reassessment of the morbidity attributable to this parasite in endemic communities, particularly resulting from secondary skin sepsis and postinfective complications including glomerulonephritis. This has led to studies of the benefits of community based control programmes, and to concerns regarding the emergence of drug resistance when such strategies are employed. The renewed research interest into the biology of this infection has resulted in the application of molecular tools. This has established that canine and human scabies populations are genetically distinct, a finding with major implications for the formulation of public health control policies. Further research is needed to increase understanding of drug resistance, and to identify new drug targets and potential vaccine candidates.

Modeling the development of acquired clinical immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Individuals living in regions where malaria is endemic develop an acquired immunity to malaria which enables them to remain asymptomatic while still carrying parasites. Field studies indicate that cumulative exposure to a variety of diverse Plasmodium parasites is required for the transition from symptomatic to asymptomatic malaria. This study used a simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. falciparum to investigate the development of acquired clinical immunity under different transmission conditions and levels of parasite diversity. Antibodies developed to P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), a clonally variant molecule, were assumed to be a key human immunological response to P. falciparum infection, along with responses to clonally conserved but polymorphic antigens. The time to the development of clinical immunity was found to be proportional to parasite diversity and inversely proportional to transmission intensity. The effect of early termination of symptomatic infections by chemotherapy was investigated and found not to inhibit the host's ability to develop acquired immunity. However, the time required to achieve this state was approximately double that compared to when no treatment was administered. This study demonstrates that an immune response primarily targeted against PfEMP1 has the ability to reduce clinical symptoms of infections irrespective of whether treatment is administered, supporting its role in the development of acquired clinical immunity. The results also illustrate a novel use for simulation models of P. falciparum infections, investigation of the influence of intervention strategies on the development of naturally acquired clinical immunity.

Evolution of resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in Plasmodium falciparum

The development of resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine by Plasmodium parasites is a major problem for the effective treatment of malaria, especially P. falciparum malaria. Although the molecular basis for parasite resistance is known, the factors promoting the development and transmission of these resistant parasites are less clear. This paper reports the results of a quantitative comparison of factors previously hypothesized as important for the development of drug resistance, drug dosage, time of treatment, and drug elimination half-life, with an in-host dynamics model of P. falciparum malaria in a malaria-naive host. The results indicate that the development of drug resistance can be categorized into three stages. The first is the selection of existing parasites with genetic mutations in the dihydrofolate reductase or dihydropteroate synthetase gene. This selection is driven by the long half-life of the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine combination. The second stage involves the selection of parasites with allelic types of higher resistance within the host during an infection. The timing of treatment relative to initiation of a specific anti-P. falciparum EMP1 immune response is an important factor during this stage, as is the treatment dosage. During the third stage, clinical treatment failure becomes prevalent as the parasites develop sufficient resistance mutations to survive therapeutic doses of the drug combination. Therefore, the model output reaffirms the importance of correct treatment of confirmed malaria cases in slowing the development of parasite resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine.

Transmission dynamics of the Echinococcus granulosus sheep-dog strain (G1 genotype) in camels in Tunisia

Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus grantilosus, is highly endemic in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the abundance and prevalence of infection of E. granulosus in camels in Tunisia. No cysts were found in 103 camels from Kebili, whilst 19 of 188 camels from Benguerden (10.1%) were infected. Of the cysts found 95% were considered fertile with the presence of protoscolices and 80% of protoscolices were considered viable by their ability to exclude aqueous eosin. Molecular techniques were used on cyst material from camels and this demonstrated that the study animals were infected with the G1 sheep strain of E. granulosus. Observed data were fitted to a mathematical model by maximum likelihood techniques to define the parameters and their confidence limits and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. The infection pressure to camels was somewhat lower in comparison to sheep reported in an earlier study. However, because camels are much longer-lived animals, the results of the model fit suggested that older camels have a relatively high prevalence rate, reaching a most likely value of 32% at age 15 years. This could represent an important source of transmission to dogs and hence indirectly to man of this zonotic strain. In common with similar studies on other species, there was no evidence of parasite-induced immunity in camels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

Case report: unusual presentation of Fasciolopsis buski in a Viet Namese child

A Viet Namese child presented with a history of abdominal pain. Shortly afterwards, he vomited eight live trematode flukes that were collected and morphologically identified as Fasciolopsis buski. The identification was confirmed by DNA analysis. Adult worms of F buski from humans are very rarely seen except at autopsy, and this is the first such report from Viet Nam. (C) 2003 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Entomological investigations in a focus of dengue transmission in Cairns, Queensland, Australia, by using the sticky ovitraps

Sticky ovitraps (patent pending) were used to sample female Aedes aegypti (L.) weekly in a focus of dengue activity in Cairns, Queensland, Australia. In February 2003, transmission of dengue virus serotype 2 began in the suburb of Parramatta Park, peaking in mid-March 2003. This suburb features many older, unscreened houses with high populations of Ae. aegypti. Highest densities (2-3.5 females per trap per week) were obtained during peak dengue transmission (January and February) before mosquito control was initiated. Beginning in late March, female Ae. aegypti collected in sticky ovitraps were tested for dengue viral RNA by using a TaqMan reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay. Dengue viral RNA was detected in six pools of Ae. aegypti collected in late March. The highest minimum infection rate was 116/1000 mosquitoes. After the initiation of larval control (containers treated with S-methoprene or lambda-cyhalothrin) and adult control (interior harborage sites sprayed with lambda-cyhalothrin) in early March, trap collections dropped to

Antiretrovirals as antimalarial agents

Recent studies have indicated that antiretroviral protease inhibitors may affect outcome in malarial disease. We have investigated the antimalarial activities of 6 commonly used antiretroviral agents. Our data indicate that, in addition to the previously published effects on cytoadherence and phagocytosis, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 protease inhibitors saquinavir, ritonavir, and indinavir directly inhibit the growth of Plasmodium falciparum in vitro at clinically relevant concentrations. These findings are particularly important in light of both the high rate of malaria and HIV-1 coinfection in sub-Saharan Africa and the effort to employ highly active antiretroviral therapy in these regions.

Validity of self-reported skin screening histories

Screening by whole-body clinical skin examination may improve early diagnosis of melanoma and reduce mortality, but objective scientific evidence of this is lacking. As part of a randomized controlled trial of population screening for melanoma in Queensland, Australia, the authors assessed the validity of self-reported history of whole-body skin examination and factors associated with accuracy of recall among 2,704 participants in 2001. Approximately half of the participants were known to have undergone whole-body skin examination within the past 3 years at skin screening clinics conducted as part of the randomized trial. All positive and negative self-reports were compared with screening clinic records. Where possible, reports of skin examinations conducted outside the clinics were compared with private medical records. The validity of self-reports of whole-body skin examination in the past 3 years was high: Concordance between self-reports and medical records was 93.7%, sensitivity was 92.0%, and specificity was 96.3%. Concordance was lower (74.3%) for self-reports of examinations conducted in the past 12 months, and there was evidence of telescoping in recall for this more recent time frame. In multivariate analysis, women and younger participants more accurately recalled their history of skin examinations. Participants with a history of melanoma did not differ from other participants in their accuracy of recall.

Prevalence of whole-body skin self-examination in a population at high risk for skin cancer (Australia)

Objective: Whole-body skin self-examination (SSE) with presentation of suspicious lesions to a physician may improve early detection of melanoma. The aim of this study was to establish the prevalence and determinants of SSE in a high-risk population in preparation for a community-based randomised controlled trial of screening for melanoma. Methods: A telephone survey reached 3110 residents older than 30 years (overall response rate of 66.9%) randomly selected from 18 regional communities in Queensland, Australia. Results: Overall, 804 (25.9%) participants reported whole-body SSE within the past 12 months and 1055 (33.9%) within the past three years. Whole-body SSE was associated in multivariate logistic regression analysis with younger age (< 50 years); higher education; having received either a whole-body skin examination, recommendation or instruction on SSE by a primary care physician; giving skin checks a high priority; concern about skin cancer and a personal history of skin cancer. Conclusion: Overall, the prevalence of SSE in the present study is among the highest yet observed in Australia, with about one-third of the adult population reporting whole-body SSE in the past three years. People over 50 years, who are at relatively higher risk for skin cancer, currently perform SSE less frequently than younger people.