A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

On the Hopf bifurcation in control systems with a bounded nonlinearity asymptotically homogeneous at infinity

The paper studies existence, uniqueness, and stability of large-amplitude periodic cycles arising in Hopf bifurcation at infinity of autonomous control systems with bounded nonlinear feedback. We consider systems with functional nonlinearities of Landesman-Lazer type and a class of systems with hysteresis nonlinearities. The method is based on the technique of parameter functionalization and methods of monotone concave and convex operators. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

The effect of musculoskeletal pain on motor activity and control

Aberrant movement patterns and postures are obvious to clinicians managing patients with musculoskeletal pain. However, some changes in motor function that occur in the presence of pain are less apparent. Clinical and basic science investigations have provided evidence of the effects of nociception on aspects of motor function. Both increases and decreases in muscle activity have been shown, along with alterations in neuronal control mechanisms, proprioception, and local muscle morphology. Various models have been proposed in an attempt to provide an explanation for some of these changes. These include the vicious cycle and pain adaptation models. Recent research has seen the emergence of a new model in which patterns of muscle activation and recruitment are altered in the presence of pain (neuromuscular activation model). These changes seem to particularly affect the ability of muscles to perform synergistic functions related to maintaining joint stability and control. These changes are believed to persist into the period of chronicity. This review shows current knowledge of the effect of musculoskeletal pain on the motor system and presents the various proposed models, in addition to other shown effects not covered by these models. The relevance of these models to both acute and chronic pain is considered. It is apparent that people experiencing musculoskeletal pain exhibit complex motor responses that may show some variation with the time course of the disorder. (C) 2001 by the American Pain Society.

Differences between older volunteers and nonvolunteers - Attitudinal, normative, and control beliefs

It has been suggested that older people are a rich potential source of volunteers, as prior literature has highlighted the benefits and rewards of volunteering in later life. This article examines differences between volunteers and nonvolunteers in a random sample of older people resident in Brisbane, Australia. Using the theory of planned behavior as a framework, the article focuses on the beliefs that distinguish those who volunteer from those who do not. Findings from the study allowed for an assessment of both the costs and benefits associated with volunteering; beliefs about the support of others, including the broader community, to volunteer; and beliefs about the barriers that might prevent volunteering. The implications of these finding's to a country with an aging population are discussed.

Theory of pseudomodes in quantum optical processes

This paper deals with non-Markovian behavior in atomic systems coupled to a structured reservoir of quantum electromagnetic field modes, with particular relevance to atoms interacting with the field in high-Q cavities or photonic band-gap materials. In cases such as the former, we show that the pseudomode theory for single-quantum reservoir excitations can be obtained by applying the Fano diagonalization method to a system in which the atomic transitions are coupled to a discrete set of (cavity) quasimodes, which in turn are coupled to a continuum set of (external) quasimodes with slowly varying coupling constants and continuum mode density. Each pseudomode can be identified with a discrete quasimode, which gives structure to the actual reservoir of true modes via the expressions for the equivalent atom-true mode coupling constants. The quasimode theory enables cases of multiple excitation of the reservoir to now be treated via Markovian master equations for the atom-discrete quasimode system. Applications of the theory to one, two, and many discrete quasimodes are made. For a simple photonic band-gap model, where the reservoir structure is associated with the true mode density rather than the coupling constants, the single quantum excitation case appears to be equivalent to a case with two discrete quasimodes.

Application of heterogeneous vacancy solution theory to characterization of microporous solids

The vacancy solution theory of adsorption is re-formulated here through the mass-action law, and placed in a convenient framework permitting the development of thermodynamic ally consistent isotherms. It is shown that both the multisite Langmuir model and the classical vacancy solution theory expression are special cases of the more general approach when the Flory-Huggins activity coefficient model is used, with the former being the thermodynamically consistent result. The improved vacancy solution theory approach is further extended here to heterogeneous adsorbents by considering the pore-width dependent potential along with a pore size distribution. However, application of the model to numerous hydrocarbons as well as other adsorptives on microporous activated carbons shows that the multisite model has difficulty in the presence of a pore size distribution, because pores of different sizes can have different numbers of adsorbed layers and therefore different site occupancies. On the other hand, use of the classical vacancy solution theory expression for the local isotherm leads to good simultaneous fit of the data, while yielding a site diameter of about 0.257 nm, consistent with that expected for the potential well in aromatic rings on carbon pore surfaces. It is argued that the classical approach is successful because the Flory-Huggins term effectively represents adsorbate interactions in disguise. When used together with the ideal adsorbed solution theory the heterogeneous vacancy solution theory successfully predicts binary adsorption equilibria, and is found to perform better than the multisite Langmuir as well as the heterogeneous Langmuir model. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theory and applications of fuzzy Volterra integral equations

Formulations of fuzzy integral equations in terms of the Aumann integral do not reflect the behavior of corresponding crisp models. Consequently, they are ill-adapted to describe physical phenomena, even when vagueness and uncertainty are present. A similar situation for fuzzy ODEs has been obviated by interpretation in terms of families of differential inclusions. The paper extends this formalism to fuzzy integral equations and shows that the resulting solution sets and attainability sets are fuzzy and far better descriptions of uncertain models involving integral equations. The investigation is restricted to Volterra type equations with mildly restrictive conditions, but the methods are capable of extensive generalization to other types and more general assumptions. The results are illustrated by integral equations relating to control models with fuzzy uncertainties.

Quasimode theory of quantum optical processes in photonic band gap materials

This paper deals with atomic systems coupled to a structured reservoir of quantum EM field modes, with particular relevance to atoms interacting with the field in photonic band gap materials. The case of high Q cavities has been treated elsewhere using Fano diagonalization based on a quasimode approach, showing that the cavity quasimodes are responsible for pseudomodes introduced to treat non-Markovian behaviour. The paper considers a simple model of a photonic band gap case, where the spatially dependent permittivity consists of a constant term plus a small spatially periodic term that leads to a narrow band gap in the spectrum of mode frequencies. Most treatments of photonic band gap materials are based on the true modes, obtained numerically by solving the Helmholtz equation for the actual spatially periodic permittivity. Here the field modes are first treated in terms of a simpler quasimode approach, in which the quasimodes are plane waves associated with the constant permittivity term. Couplings between the quasimodes occur owing to the small periodic term in the permittivity, with selection rules for the coupled modes being related to the reciprocal lattice vectors. This produces a field Hamiltonian in quasimode form. A matrix diagonalization method may be applied to relate true mode annihilation operators to those for quasimodes. The atomic transitions are coupled to all the quasimodes, and the true mode atom-EM field coupling constants (one-photon Rabi frequencies) are related to those for the quasimodes and also expressions are obtained for the true mode density. The results for the one-photon Rabi frequencies differ from those assumed in other work. Expressions for atomic decay rates are obtained using the Fermi Golden rule, although these are valid only well away from the band gaps.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Single mode Lamb waves in composite laminated plates generated by piezoelectric transducers

The technique of permanently attaching piezoelectric transducers to structural surfaces has demonstrated great potential for quantitative non-destructive evaluation and smart materials design. For thin structural members such as composite laminated plates, it has been well recognized that guided Lamb wave techniques can provide a very sensitive and effective means for large area interrogation. However, since in these applications multiple wave modes are generally generated and the individual modes are usually dispersive, the received signals are very complex and difficult to interpret. An attractive way to deal with this problem has recently been introduced by applying piezoceramic transducer arrays or interdigital transducer (IDT) technologies. In this paper, the acoustic wave field in composite laminated plates excited by piezoceramic transducer arrays or IDT is investigated. Based on dynamic piezoelectricity theory, a discrete layer theory and a multiple integral transform method, an analytical-numerical approach is developed to evaluate the input impedance characteristics of the transducer and the surface velocity response of the plate. The method enables the quantitative evaluation of the influence of the electrical characteristics of the excitation circuit, the geometric and piezoelectric properties of the transducer array, and the mechanical and geometrical features of the laminate. Numerical results are presented to validate the developed method and show the ability of single wave mode selection and isolation. The results show that the interaction between individual elements of the piezoelectric array has a significant influence on the performance of the IDT, and these effects can not be neglected even in the case of low frequency excitation. It is also demonstrated that adding backing materials to the transducer elements can be used to improve the excitability of specific wave modes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetics of adsorption on activated carbon: application of heterogeneous vacancy solution theory

The kinetics of single component adsorption on activated carbon is investigated here using a heterogeneous vacancy solution theory (VST) of adsorption. The adsorption isotherm is developed to account for the adsorbate non-ideality due to the size difference between the adsorbate molecule and the vacant site, while incorporating adsorbent heterogeneity through a pore-width-related potential energy. The transport process in the bidisperse carbon considers coupled mass transfer in both macropore and micropore phases simultaneously. Adsorbate diffusion in the micropore network is modeled through effective medium theory, thus considering pore network connectivity in the adsorbent, with the activation energy for adsorbate diffusion related to the adsorption energy, represented by the Steele 10-4-3 potential for carbons. Experimental data of five hydrocarbons, CO2 and SO2 on Ajax carbon at multiple temperatures, as well as three hydrocarbons on Norit carbon at three temperatures are first fitted by the heterogeneous VST model to obtain the isotherm parameters, followed by application of the kinetic model to uptake data on carbon particles of different sizes and geometry at various temperatures. For the hydrocarbons studied, the model can successfully correlate the experimental data for both adsorption equilibrium and kinetics. However, there is some deviation in the fit of the desorption kinetics for polar compounds such as CO2 and SO2, due to the inadequacy of the L-J potential model in this case. The significance of viscous transport in the micropores is also considered here and found to be negligible, consistent with recent molecular simulation studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical study of hydrogenic effective mass theory for an impurity P donor in Si in the presence of an electric field and interfaces

In this paper we examine the effects of varying several experimental parameters in the Kane quantum computer architecture: A-gate voltage, the qubit depth below the silicon oxide barrier, and the back gate depth to explore how these variables affect the electron density of the donor electron. In particular, we calculate the resonance frequency of the donor nuclei as a function of these parameters. To do this we calculated the donor electron wave function variationally using an effective-mass Hamiltonian approach, using a basis of deformed hydrogenic orbitals. This approach was then extended to include the electric-field Hamiltonian and the silicon host geometry. We found that the phosphorous donor electron wave function was very sensitive to all the experimental variables studied in our work, and thus to optimize the operation of these devices it is necessary to control all parameters varied in this paper.

Modeling diffraction in free-space optical interconnects by the mode expansion method

Free-space optical interconnects (FSOIs), made up of dense arrays of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers, photodetectors and microlenses can be used for implementing high-speed and high-density communication links, and hence replace the inferior electrical interconnects. A major concern in the design of FSOIs is minimization of the optical channel cross talk arising from laser beam diffraction. In this article we introduce modifications to the mode expansion method of Tanaka et al. [IEEE Trans. Microwave Theory Tech. MTT-20, 749 (1972)] to make it an efficient tool for modelling and design of FSOIs in the presence of diffraction. We demonstrate that our modified mode expansion method has accuracy similar to the exact solution of the Huygens-Kirchhoff diffraction integral in cases of both weak and strong beam clipping, and that it is much more accurate than the existing approximations. The strength of the method is twofold: first, it is applicable in the region of pronounced diffraction (strong beam clipping) where all other approximations fail and, second, unlike the exact-solution method, it can be efficiently used for modelling diffraction on multiple apertures. These features make the mode expansion method useful for design and optimization of free-space architectures containing multiple optical elements inclusive of optical interconnects and optical clock distribution systems. (C) 2003 Optical Society of America.

Opening windows into the mind: mothers' preferences for mental state explanations and children's theory of mind

A new questionnaire, the Maternal Mental State Input Inventory (MMSII) was created to measure mothers' preferences for introducing and elaborating on mental states in conversation with their young children. In two studies, the questionnaire was given to mothers of young children, and the children's theory of mind (ToM) development was assessed with standard tasks. In both studies, the questionnaire exhibited good internal reliability, and significant correlations emerged between mothers' self-reported preferences for elaborated, explanatory talk about the mental states and children's theory of mind performance. Further, mothers' conversational preferences, as measured by the MMSII, were the best predictors of children's theory of mind development when relevant control variables were included in the analyses. These results converge with naturalistic observational research that has demonstrated links between mothers' conversational styles and their children's theory of mind. They go further in suggesting that mothers' tendencies toward elaborated, explanatory talk about a range of mental states is particularly beneficial to children's theory of mind development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A class B switch-mode assisted linear amplifier

A switch-mode assisted linear amplifier (SMALA) combining a linear (Class B) and a switch-mode (Class D) amplifier is presented. The usual single hysteretic controlled half-bridge current dumping stage is replaced by two parallel buck converter stages, in a parallel voltage controlled topology. These operate independently: one buck converter sources current to assist the upper Class B output device, and a complementary converter sinks current to assist the lower device. This topology lends itself to a novel control approach of a dead-band at low power levels where neither class D amplifier assists, allowing the class B amplifier to supply the load without interference, ensuring high fidelity. A 20 W implementation demonstrates 85% efficiency, with distortion below 0.08% measured across the full audio bandwidth at 15 W. The class D amplifier begins assisting at 2 W, and below this value, the distortion was below 0.03%. Complete circuitry is given, showing the simplicity of the additional class D amplifier and its corresponding control circuitry.