An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Attentional modulation of blink startle at long, short, and very short lead intervals

The present research investigated attentional blink startle modulation at lead intervals of 60, 240 and 3500 ms. Letters printed in Gothic or standard fonts, which differed in rated interest, but not valence, served as lead stimuli. Experiment I established that identifying letters as vowels/consonants took longer than reading the letters and that performance in both tasks was slower if letters were printed in Gothic font. In Experiment 2, acoustic blink eliciting stimuli were presented 60, 240 and 3500 ms after onset of the letters in Gothic and in standard font and during intertrial intervals. Half the participants (Group Task) were asked to identify the letters as vowels/consonants whereas the others (Group No-Task) did not perform a task. Relative to control responses, blinks during letters were facilitated at 60 and 3500 ms lead intervals and inhibited at the 240 ms lead interval for both conditions in Group Task. Differences in blink modulation across lead intervals were found in Group No-Task only during Gothic letters with blinks at the 3500 ms lead interval facilitated relative to control blinks. The present results confirm previous findings indicating that attentional processes can modulate startle at very short lead intervals. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate supplementation does not reduce symptoms of eccentric muscle damage

Purpose: We examined the effects of short-term beta -hydroxy-beta -methylbutyrate (HIM) supplementation on symptoms of muscle damage following an acute bout of eccentric exercise. Methods: Non-resistance trained subjects were randomly assigned to a HMB supplement group (HMB, 40mg/kg bodyweight/day, n = 8) or placebo group (CON, n = 9). Supplementation commenced 6 days prior to a bout of 24 maximal isokinetic eccentric contractions of the elbow flexors and continued throughout post-testing. Muscle soreness, upper arm girth, and torque measures were assessed pre-exercise, 15 min post-exercise, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, and 10 days post-exercise. Results: No pre-test differences between HMB and CON groups were identified, and both performed a similar amount of eccentric work during the main eccentric exercise bout (p > .05). HMB supplementation had no effect on swelling, muscle soreness, or torque following the damaging eccentric exercise bout (p > .05). Conclusion: Compared to a placebo condition, short-term supplementation with 40mg/kg bodyweight/day of HMB had no beneficial effect on a range of symptoms associated with eccentric muscle damage. If HMB can produce an ergogenic response, a longer pre-exercise supplementation period may be necessary.

Long-term metabolic and skeletal muscle adaptations to short-sprint training: Implications for sprint training and tapering

The adaptations of muscle to sprint training can be separated into metabolic and morphological changes. Enzyme adaptations represent a major metabolic adaptation to sprint training, with the enzymes of all three energy systems showing signs of adaptation to training and some evidence of a return to baseline levels with detraining. Myokinase and creatine phosphokinase have shown small increases as a result of short-sprint training in some studies and elite sprinters appear better able to rapidly breakdown phosphocreatine (PCr) than the sub-elite. No changes in these enzyme levels have been reported as a result of detraining. Similarly, glycolytic enzyme activity (notably lactate dehydrogenase, phosphofructokinase and glycogen phosphorylase) has been shown to increase after training consisting of either long (> 10-second) or short (< 10-second) sprints. Evidence suggests that these enzymes return to pre-training levels after somewhere between 7 weeks and 6 months of detraining. Mitochondrial enzyme activity also increases after sprint training, particularly when long sprints or short recovery between short sprints are used as the training stimulus. Morphological adaptations to sprint training include changes in muscle fibre type, sarcoplasmic reticulum, and fibre cross-sectional area. An appropriate sprint training programme could be expected to induce a shift toward type Ha muscle, increase muscle cross-sectional area and increase the sarcoplasmic reticulum volume to aid release of Ca2+. Training volume and/or frequency of sprint training in excess of what is optimal for an individual, however, will induce a shift toward slower muscle contractile characteristics. In contrast, detraining appears to shift the contractile characteristics towards type IIb, although muscle atrophy is also likely to occur. Muscle conduction velocity appears to be a potential non-invasive method of monitoring contractile changes in response to sprint training and detraining. In summary, adaptation to sprint training is clearly dependent on the duration of sprinting, recovery between repetitions, total volume and frequency of training bouts. These variables have profound effects on the metabolic, structural and performance adaptations from a sprint-training programme and these changes take a considerable period of time to return to baseline after a period of detraining. However, the complexity of the interaction between the aforementioned variables and training adaptation combined with individual differences is clearly disruptive to the transfer of knowledge and advice from laboratory to coach to athlete.

Effects of short-duration and long-duration exercise on lipoprotein(a)

Purpose: Most studies that use either a single exercise session, exercise training, or a cross-sectional design have failed to find a relationship between exercise and plasma lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] concentrations. However, a few studies investigating the effects of longer and/or more strenuous exercise have shown elevated Lp(a) concentrations, possibly as an acute-phase reactant to muscle damage. Based on the assumption that greater muscle damage would occur with exercise of longer duration, the purpose of the present study was to determine whether exercise of longer duration would increase Lp(a) concentration and creatine kinase. (CK) activity more than exercise of shorter duration. Methods: Ten endurance-trained men (mean +/- SD: age, 27 +/- 6 yr; maximal oxygen consumption [(V)over dotO(2max)], 57 +/- 7 mL(.)kg(-1) min(-1)) completed two separate exercise sessions at 70% (V)over dotO(2max). One session required 900 kcal of energy expenditure (60 +/- 6 min), and the other required 1500 kcal (112 +/- 12 min). Fasted blood samples were taken immediately before (0-pre), immediately after (0-post), 1 d after (1-post), and 2 d after (2-post) each exercise session. Results: CK activity increased after both exercise sessions (mean +/- SE; 800 kcal: 0-pre 55 +/- 11, 1-post 168 +/- 64 U(.)L(-1.)min(-1); 1500 kcal: 0-pre 51 +/- 5, 1-post 187 +/- 30, 2-post 123 +/- 19 U(.)L(-1.)min(-1); P < 0.05). However, median Lp(a) concentrations were not altered by either exercise session (800 kcal: 0-pre 5.0 mg(.)dL(-1), 0-post 3.2 mg(.)dL(-1), 1-post 4.0 mg(.)dL(-1), 2-post 3.4 mg(.)dL(-1); 1500 kcal: 0-pre 5.8 mg(.)dL(-1), 0-post 4.3 mg(.)dL(-1), 1-post 3.2 mg(.)dL(-1), 2-post 5.3 mg(.)dL(-1)). In addition, no relationship existed between exercise-induced changes in CK activity and Lp(a) concentration (800 kcal: r = -0.26; 1500 kcal: r = -0.02). Conclusion: These results suggest that plasma Lp(a) concentration will not increase in response to minor exercise-induced muscle damage in endurance-trained runners.

Flavour retention during high temperature short time extrusion cooking process: a review

Research on the stability of flavours during high temperature extrusion cooking is reviewed. The important factors that affect flavour and aroma retention during the process of extrusion are illustrated. A substantial number of flavour volatiles which are incorporated prior to extrusion are normally lost during expansion, this is because of steam distillation. Therefore, a general practice has been to introduce a flavour mix after the extrusion process. This extra operation requires a binding agent (normally oil), and may also result in a non-uniform distribution of the flavour and low oxidative stability of the flavours exposed on the surface. Therefore, the importance of encapsulated flavours, particularly the beta -cyclodextrin-flavour complex, is highlighted in this paper.

Development of a short-term model using petrophysical logging at Century Mine, North Queensland

Pasminco Century Mine has developed a geophysical logging system to provide new data for ore mining/grade control and the generation of Short Term Models for mine planning. Previous work indicated the applicability of petrophysical logging for lithology prediction, however, the automation of the method was not considered reliable enough for the development of a mining model. A test survey was undertaken using two diamond drilled control holes and eight percussion holes. All holes were logged with natural gamma, magnetic susceptibility and density. Calibration of the LogTrans auto-interpretation software using only natural gamma and magnetic susceptibility indicated that both lithology and stratigraphy could be predicted. Development of a capability to enforce stratigraphic order within LogTrans increased the reliability and accuracy of interpretations. After the completion of a feasibility program, Century Mine has invested in a dedicated logging vehicle to log blast holes as well as for use in in-fill drilling programs. Future refinement of the system may lead to the development of GPS controlled excavators for mining ore.

Capacity utilisation and profitability: A decomposition of short-run profit efficiency

The principal aim of this paper is to measure the amount by which the profit of a multi-input, multi-output firm deviates from maximum short-run profit, and then to decompose this profit gap into components that are of practical use to managers. In particular, our interest is in the measurement of the contribution of unused capacity, along with measures of technical inefficiency, and allocative inefficiency, in this profit gap. We survey existing definitions of capacity and, after discussing their shortcomings, we propose a new ray economic capacity measure that involves short-run profit maximisation, with the output mix held constant. We go on to describe how the gap between observed profit and maximum profit can be calculated and decomposed using linear programming methods. The paper concludes with an empirical illustration, involving data on 28 international airline companies. The empirical results indicate that these airline companies achieve profit levels which are on average US$815m below potential levels, and that 70% of the gap may be attributed to unused capacity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Short communication: Extended shifts in ambulance work: influences on health

Shiftwork is a major source of stress for many worker's. This study highlights the role that organizational and psychosocial variables play in alleviating the negative health effects of 10 and 14-h shifts. It examines the direct and mediated effects of coping strategies, social support and control of shifts on work/non-work conflict and subjective health. Participants are 60 ambulance workers, aged 22 to SS years. A structural equation model with good fit demonstrates complex effects of social support from various sources (supervisors, co-workers and family), coping and control on work/non-work conflict and subjective health., Conceptually, the research contributes to the development of a theoretical framework that can assist in explaining how key psychosocial and organizational variables influence the psychological and physical symptoms experienced by shiftworkers. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Trematode life cycles: short is sweet

Complex life cycles are a hallmark of parasitic trematodes. In several trematode taxa, however, the life cycle is truncated: fewer hosts are used than in a typical three-host cycle, with fewer transmission events. Eliminating one host from the life cycle can be achieved in at least three different ways. Some trematodes show even more extreme forms of life cycle abbreviations, using only a mollusc to complete their cycle, with or without sexual reproduction. The occurrence of these phenomena among trematode families are reviewed here and show that life cycle truncation has evolved independently many times in the phylogeny of trematodes. The hypotheses proposed to account for life-cycle truncation, in addition to the factors preventing the adoption of shorter cycles by all trematodes are also discussed. The study of shorter life cycles offers an opportunity to understand the forces shaping the evolution of life cycles in general.

The prediction of sharkskin instability observed during film blowing

The characteristics of sharkskin surface instability for linear low density polyethylene are studied as a function of film blowing processing conditions. By means of scanning electron microscopy and surface profilometry, is it found that for the standard industrial die geometry studied, sharkskin only occurs on the inside of the film bubble. Previous work suggests that this instability may be due to critical extensional stress levels at the exit of the die. Isothermal integral viscoelastic simulations of the annular extrusion process are reported, and confirm that the extensional stress at the die exit is large enough to cause local melt rupture. However the extensional stress level at the outer die wall predicts melt rupture of the outside bubble surface also, which contradicts the experimental findings. A significant temperature gradient is expected to exist across the die gap at the exit of the die, due to the external heating of the die and the low conductivity, of the polymer melt. It is shown that a gradient of 20 degreesC is required to cause sharkskin to only appear on the inner bubble surface.