Popper's Explications of Ad hocness: Circularity, Empirical Content, and Scientific Practice

Popper's explications of 'ad hoc' in relation to hypotheses and explanations turn out to be either trivial, confused or mistaken. One such explication I discuss at length is circularity; another is reduction in empirical content. I argue that non-circularity is preferable to non-ad hocness for an acceptable explanation or explanans, and I isolate some persistent errors in his analysis. Second, Popper is barking up the wrong tree in proscribing reductions in empirical content in novel hypotheses. Such reductions may constitute scientific progress. He fails to show that ad hoc hypothesis are the threat to science he claims.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A demonstration of artificial dissipation effects in some finite volume solution methods for the Navier-Stokes equations

The artificial dissipation effects in some solutions obtained with a Navier-Stokes flow solver are demonstrated. The solvers were used to calculate the flow of an artificially dissipative fluid, which is a fluid having dissipative properties which arise entirely from the solution method itself. This was done by setting the viscosity and heat conduction coefficients in the Navier-Stokes solvers to zero everywhere inside the flow, while at the same time applying the usual no-slip and thermal conducting boundary conditions at solid boundaries. An artificially dissipative flow solution is found where the dissipation depends entirely on the solver itself. If the difference between the solutions obtained with the viscosity and thermal conductivity set to zero and their correct values is small, it is clear that the artificial dissipation is dominating and the solutions are unreliable.

Spatial Technologies: What use are they to managers of environmental lands?

This paper reviews the potential use of three types of spatial technology to land managers, namely satellite imagery, satellite positioning systems and supporting computer software. Developments in remote sensing and the relative advantages of multispectral and hyperspectral images are discussed. The main challenge to the wider use of remote sensing as a land management tool is seen as uncertainty whether apparent relationships between biophysical variables and spectral reflectance are direct and causal, or artefacts of particular images. Developments in satellite positioning systems are presented in the context of land managers’ need for position estimates in situations where absolute precision may or may not be required. The role of computer software in supporting developments in spatial technology is described. Spatial technologies are seen as having matured beyond empirical applications to the stage where they are useful and reliable land management tools. In addition, computer software has become more user-friendly and this has facilitated data collection and manipulation by semi-expert as well as specialist staff.

A shift from passive teaching at medical conferences to more interactive methods improves physician learning

Conferences that deliver interactive sessions designed to enhance physician participation, such as role play, small discussion groups, workshops, hands-on training, problem- or case-based learning and individualised training sessions, are effective for physician education.

Appropriate surveying methods in the Philippines: Can modern GPS units help?

An investigation was undertaken to test the effectiveness of two procedures for recording boundaries and plot positions for scientific studies on farms on Leyte Island, the Philippines. The accuracy of a Garmin 76 Global Positioning System (GPS) unit and a compass and chain was checked under the same conditions. Tree canopies interfered with the ability of the satellite signal to reach the GPS and therefore the GPS survey was less accurate than the compass and chain survey. Where a high degree of accuracy is required, a compass and chain survey remains the most effective method of surveying land underneath tree canopies, providing operator error is minimised. For a large number of surveys and thus large amounts of data, a GPS is more appropriate than a compass and chain survey because data are easily up-loaded into a Geographic Information System (GIS). However, under dense canopies where satellite signals cannot reach the GPS, it may be necessary to revert to a compass survey or a combination of both methods.

An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis

The second edition of An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis is designed to be a general introduction for those who wish to study efficiency and productivity analysis. The book provides an accessible, well-written introduction to the four principal methods involved: econometric estimation of average response models; index numbers, data envelopment analysis (DEA); and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). For each method, a detailed introduction to the basic concepts is presented, numerical examples are provided, and some of the more important extensions to the basic methods are discussed. Of special interest is the systematic use of detailed empirical applications using real-world data throughout the book. In recent years, there have been a number of excellent advance-level books published on performance measurement. This book, however, is the first systematic survey of performance measurement with the express purpose of introducing the field to a wide audience of students, researchers, and practitioners. Indeed, the 2nd Edition maintains its uniqueness: (1) It is a well-written introduction to the field. (2) It outlines, discusses and compares the four principal methods for efficiency and productivity analysis in a well-motivated presentation. (3) It provides detailed advice on computer programs that can be used to implement these performance measurement methods. The book contains computer instructions and output listings for the SHAZAM, LIMDEP, TFPIP, DEAP and FRONTIER computer programs. More extensive listings of data and computer instruction files are available on the book's website: (www.uq.edu.au/economics/cepa/crob2005).

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Synthesis, NMR studies and conformational analysis of oxazolidine derivatives of the beta-adrenoreceptor antagonists metoprolol, atenolol and timolol

Formaldehyde-derived oxazolidine derivatives 4-7 of the beta-adrenoreceptor antagonists metoprolol 1, atenolol 2 and timolol 3 have been synthesised. Conformational analysis of 1-3 and the oxazolidine derivatives 4-7 has been performed using H-1 NMR spectroscopy and computational methods. The H-1 NMR studies show that for the aryloxypropanolamine beta-adrenoreceptor antagonists there is a predominance of the conformer in which the amine group is approximately antiperiplanar or trans to the aryloxymethylene group. Both H-1 NMR data and theoretical studies indicate that the oxazolidine derivatives 4-7 and the aryloxypropanolamine beta-adrenoreceptor antagonists 1-3 adopt similar conformations around the beta-amino alcohol moiety. Thus, oxazolidine ring formation does not dramatically alter the preferred conformation adopted by the beta-amino alcohol moiety of 1-3. Oxazolidine derivatives of aryloxypropanolamine beta-adrenoreceptor antagonists may therefore be appropriate as prodrugs, or semi-rigid analogues, when greater lipophilicity is required for drug delivery.

Ester prodrugs of a potent analgesic, morphine-6-sulfate: syntheses, spectroscopic and physicochemical properties

The aim of this work is to develop 3-acyl prodrugs of the potent analgesic morphine-6-sulfate (M6S). These are expected to have higher potency and/or exhibit longer duration of analgesic action than the parent compound. M6S and the prodrugs were synthesized, then purified either by recrystallization or by semi-preparative HPLC and the structures confirmed by mass spectrometry, IR spectrophotometry and by detailed 1- and 2-D NMR studies. The lipophilicities of the compounds were assessed by a combination of shake-flask, group contribution and HPLC retention methods. The octanol-buffer partition coefficient could only be obtained directly for 3-heptanoylmorphine-6-sulfate, using the shake-flask method. The partition coefficients (P) for the remaining prodrugs were estimated from known methylene group contributions. A good linear relationship between log P and the HPLC log capacity factors was demonstrated. Hydrolysis of the 3-acetyl prodrug, as a representative of the group, was found to occur relatively slowly in buffers (pH range 6.15-8.01), with a small buffer catalysis contribution. The rates of enzymatic hydrolysis of the 3-acyl group in 10% rat blood and in 10% rat brain homogenate were investigated. The prodrugs followed apparent first order hydrolysis kinetics, with a significantly faster hydrolysis rate found in 10% rat brain homogenate than in 10% rat blood for all compounds. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.