A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

The validity of self-reported energy intake as determined using the doubly labelled water technique

In the 1980s the development of the doubly labelled water (DLW) technique made it possible to determine the validity of dietary assessment methods using external, independent markers of intake in free-living populations. Since then, the accuracy of self-reported energy intake (EI) has been questioned on a number of occasions as under-reporting has been found to be prevalent in many different populations. This paper is a review of investigations using the DLW technique in conjunction with self-reported EI measures in groups including adults, children and adolescents, obese persons, athletes, military personnel and trekking explorers. In studies where a person other than the subject is responsible for recording dietary intake, such as parents of young children, EI generally corresponds to DLW determined energy expenditure. However, in instances where the subjects themselves report their intake, EI is generally under-reported when compared with energy expenditure. It was originally believed that this phenomenon of under-reporting was linked to increased adiposity and body size, however, it is now apparent that other factors, such as dietary restraint and socio-economic status, are also involved. This paper therefore aims to present a more comprehensive picture of under-reporting by tying in the findings of many DLW studies with other studies focusing particularly on the characteristics and mechanisms for under-reporting. Awareness of these characteristics and mechanisms will enable researchers to obtain more accurate self-reports of EI using all dietary recording techniques.

A technique for preserving pigmentation in some capsalid monogeneans for taxonomic purposes

A technique is described to preserve the pigment found in the bodies and the intestine of some brightly coloured and darkly pigmented benedeniine capsalid monogeneans. Previous studies of these pigmented capsalids have proven difficult because the pigmentation usually disappears when the worms are fixed using preservatives containing concentrations of formalin over 5% and/or ethanol, acetic acid, chromic acid, picric acid and mercuric chloride. The technique developed here uses a fixative comprising glycerol, acetone and formalin (GAF). After fixation under light coverslip compression for three minutes, specimens are transferred to absolute acetone for three minutes and cleared in a mixture of nine parts cedar wood oil and one part absolute acetone before mounting in Canada balsam. Processing must be carried out quickly, as these chemicals will cause the pigments to fade if the specimens are exposed to them for too long. Pigmented benedeniines processed using this technique retain the distribution, intensity and colour observed in live worms. The colour and distribution of pigmentation in monogeneans may be of taxonomic importance and this technique aids preparation of whole-mounts suitable for registration as type-material.

Automated edge-detection technique for measurement of brachial artery reactivity: A comparison of concordance with manual measurements

Concerns have been raised about the reproducibility of brachial artery reactivity (BAR), because subjective decisions regarding the location of interfaces may influence the measurement of very small changes in lumen diameter. We studied 120 consecutive patients with BAR to address if an automated technique could be applied, and if experience influenced reproducibility between two observers, one experienced and one inexperienced. Digital cineloops were measured automatically, using software that measures the leading edge of the endothelium and tracks this in sequential frames and also manually, where a set of three point-to-point measurements were averaged. There was a high correlation between automated and manual techniques for both observers, although less variability was present with expert readers. The limits of agreement overall for interobserver concordance were 0.13 +/-0.65 mm for the manual and 0.03 +/-0.74 mm for the automated measurement. For intraobserver concordance, the limits of agreement were -0.07 +/-0.38 mm for observer 1 and -0.16 +/-0.55 mm for observer 2. We concluded that BAR measurements were highly concordant between observers, although more concordant using the automated method, and that experience does affect concordance. Care must be taken to ensure that the same segments are measured between observers and serially.

Analysis of the gate capacitance measurement technique and its application for the evaluation of hot-carrier degradation in submicrometer MOSFETs

The use of gate-to-drain capacitance (C-gd) measurement as a tool to characterize hot-carrier-induced charge centers in submicron n- and p-MOSFET's has been reviewed and demonstrated. By analyzing the change in C-gd measured at room and cryogenic temperature before and after high gate-to-drain transverse field (high field) and maximum substrate current (I-bmax) stress, it is concluded that the degradation was found to be mostly due to trapping of majority carriers and generation of interface states. These interface states were found to be acceptor states at top half of band gap for n-MOSFETs and donor states at bottom half of band gap for p-MOSFETs. In general, hot electrons are more likely to be trapped in gate oxide as compared to hot holes while the presence of hot holes generates more interface states. Also, we have demonstrated a new method for extracting the spatial distribution of oxide trapped charge, Q(ot), through gate-to-substrate capacitance (C-gb) measurement. This method is simple to implement and does not require additional information from simulation or detailed knowledge of the device's structure. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A test of the ash-free dry weight technique on the developmental stages of Patiriella spp. (Echinodermata : Asteroidea)

Determination of the ash-free dry weight (AFDW) of marine specimens requires samples to be rinsed, soaked, and centrifuged. Problems associated with this technique were examined with the developmental stages of seastar species (Patiriella) with different modes of development. The influence of three rinsing solutions (ammonium formate [AF], filtered seawater [FSW], and reverse osmosis water [RO]) was assessed. The hypothesis that the AFDW technique is a measure of organic material was addressed by drying inorganic salts. Developmental stages of Patiriella calcar rinsed in FSW were twice as heavy as those rinsed in RO or AE indicating that samples should be rinsed in RO or AF before weighing. Soaking treatments had a significant effect on the AFDW of samples of P. calcar (planktonic developer), indicating that the rinsing period should be brief. Zygotes of Patiriella re gularis (planktonic developer) were significantly heavier than ova or gastrulae, regardless of treatment. In contrast, there were no significant differences in the AFDW of any stages or treatments of Patiriella exigua (benthic developer). This may be due to the presence of a modified fertilization envelope, which protects these benthic embryos. Inorganic salts with water of crystallization and FSW lost 20-75% and 14% of their dry weight, respectively, after ashing. We propose that salt ions may retain water, which does not evaporate during drying but is lost during ashing, resulting in the overestimation of sample AFDW. If a similar process occurs in the developmental stages of marine invertebrates, changes in the intracellular ionic composition through development may result in inaccurate estimates of biomass.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in eastern Australia are threatened by land clearing for agricultural and urban development. At the same time, conservation efforts are hindered by a dearth of information about inland populations. Faecal deposits offer a source of information that is readily available and easily collected non-invasively. We detail a faecal pellet sampling protocol that was developed for use in a large rangeland biogeographic region. The method samples trees in belt transects, uses a thorough search at the tree base to quickly identify trees with koala pellets under them, then estimates the abundance of faecal pellets under those trees using 1-m(2) quadrats. There was a strong linear relationship between these estimates and a complete enumeration of pellet abundance under the same trees. We evaluated the accuracy of our method in detecting trees where pellets were present by means of a misclassification index that was weighed more heavily for missed trees that had high numbers of pellets under them. This showed acceptable accuracy in all landforms except riverine, where some trees with large numbers of pellets were missed. Here, accuracy in detecting pellet presence was improved by sampling with quadrats, rather than basal searches. Finally, we developed a method to reliably age pellets and demonstrate how this protocol could be used with the faecal-standing-crop method to derive a regional estimate of absolute koala abundance.

Growth of subtropical ECM fungi with different nitrogen sources using a new floating culture technique

Eight species of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in the genera Amanita. Gymnoboletus, Lactarius, and Russula were isolated from subtropical plant communities in eastem Australia. Two species were isolated from each of rainforest, Nothofagus forest, Eucalyptus forest, and Eucalyptus dominated wallum (heath) forest. These communities differ strongly in their soluble soil nitrogen (N) composition. The ability of the fungi to use inorganic (nitrate, ammonium) and organic (amide, peptide, protein) nitrogen sources was determined. As the fungi did not grow in liquid culture, a 'floating culture' technique was devised that allows hyphal growth on a screen floating on liquid medium. With some exceptions, fungal biomass production in floating culture closely reflected fungal growth on solid media assessed by total colony glucosamine content. Most isolates grown in floating culture had similar glucosamine concentrations on all N sources, with isolate specific concentrations ranging from 6 to 12 mug glucosamine g(-1) DW. However, Russula spp. had up to 1.7-fold higher glucosamine concentrations when growing with glutamine or ammonium compared to nitrate, glutathione or protein. Floating cultures supplied with 0.5, 1.5. 4.5, or 10 mm N mostly produced greatest biomass with 4.5 mM N. In vitro nitrate reductase activity (NRA) ranged from very low (0.03 mumol NO2- g(-1) fw h(-1)) in Russula sp. (wallum) to high (2.16 mumol NO2- g(-1) fw h(-1)) in Gymnoboletus sp. (rainforest) and mirrored the fungi's ability to use nitrate as a N source. All Russula spp. (wallum, Nothofagus and Eucalyptus forests), Lactarills sp, (rainforest) and.4manita sp. (wallum) utilized ammonium and glutamine but had little ability to use other N sources. In contrast,Amanita species (Nothofagus and Eucalyptus forests) grew on all N sources but produced most biomass with ammonium and glutamine. Only Gymnoboletus sp. (rainforest) showed similar growth with nitrate and ammonium as N sources. Fungal N source use was not associated with taxonomic groups, but is discussed in the context of soil N sources in the different habitats.

Two-dimensional balanced sampling plans excluding contiguous units

A balanced sampling plan excluding contiguous units (or BSEC for short) was first introduced by Hedayat, Rao and Stufken in 1988. These designs can be used for survey sampling when the units are arranged in one-dimensional ordering and the contiguous units in this ordering provide similar information. In this paper, we generalize the concept of a BSEC to the two-dimensional situation and give constructions of two-dimensional BSECs with block size 3. The existence problem is completely solved in the case where lambda = 1.