Adaptive stepsize based on control theory for stochastic differential equations

The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focussed recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the best choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

Self-determination theory: A case study of evidence-based coaching

The coach is central to the development of expertise in sport (Bloom, 1985) and is subsequently key to facilitating adaptive forms of motivation to enhance the quality of sport performance (Mallett & Hanrahan, 2004). In designing optimal training environments that are sensitive to the underlying motives of athletes, the coach requires an in-depth understanding of motivation. This paper reports on the application of self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985; Ryan & Deci, 2000) to coaching elite athletes. Specifically, the application of SDT to designing an autonomy-supportive motivational climate is outlined, which was used in preparing Australia's two men's relay teams for the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Trace Semantics for the Owicki-Gries Theory Integrated with the Progress Logic from UNITY

The theory of Owicki and Gries has been used as a platform for safety-based verifcation and derivation of concurrent programs. It has also been integrated with the progress logic of UNITY which has allowed newer techniques of progress-based verifcation and derivation to be developed. However, a theoretical basis for the integrated theory has thus far been missing. In this paper, we provide a theoretical background for the logic of Owicki and Gries integrated with the logic of progress from UNITY. An operational semantics for the new framework is provided which is used to prove soundness of the progress logic.

A power system control scheme based on security visualisation in parameter space

Power system real time security assessment is one of the fundamental modules of the electricity markets. Typically, when a contingency occurs, it is required that security assessment and enhancement module shall be ready for action within about 20 minutes’ time to meet the real time requirement. The recent California black out again highlighted the importance of system security. This paper proposed an approach for power system security assessment and enhancement based on the information provided from the pre-defined system parameter space. The proposed scheme opens up an efficient way for real time security assessment and enhancement in a competitive electricity market for single contingency case

Economic , Educational and Conservation Benefits of Sea Turtle Based Ecotourism: A Study Focused on Mon Repos

The study examines the economic, educational and conservation values of sea turtle-based ecotourism in Australia. The centre-piece of this research is a case study undertaken at the Mon Repos Conservation Park located near the town of Bundaberg, Queensland. Each year from mid-November to end of March, thousands of visitors visit Mon Repos Conservation Park to view sea turtles either nesting on the one km stretch of beach or to see hatchlings emerge from their nests and march on to the sea or both. As a result of this activity there are considerable economic benefits to the Bundaberg region during the sea turtle season. The study examines the economic impact of sea turtle viewing at Mon Repos to the region. The study assesses the recreational value of sea turtle viewing. Furthermore, sea turtle-based ecotourism also provides educational and conservation benefits that are important for the protection and conservation of sea turtles, especially in Australia. The study specifies the extent of the educational impact and conservation appreciation of sea turtle viewing at Mon Repos Conservation Park. As a background to the study, Mon Repos visitors’ profile and socio-economic data of visitors are provided. In order to conduct this study, 1,200 survey forms were distributed, out of which 519 usable responses were obtained.

Economics, wildlife tourism and conservation: Three case studies

This report presents the results of an economics component of the National Interdisciplinary Project (NIP) on wildlife tourism in Australia. The main objectives of the study were to outline and assess the role that economics can play in the valuation and management of wildlife-based tourism, undertake appropriate case studies to highlight the value of economics and its limits in assessing wildlife tourism in each case, take into account relevant environmental issues involved in wildlife tourism, and make future recommendations.

Public support for sustainable commercial harvesting of wildlife: An Australian case study

This paper surveys a sample of 204 members of the Australian public to determine their attitude to the sustainable commercial harvesting of wildlife generally, and considers their specific support for the sustainable commercial harvesting of each of 24 Australian native species. The general attitude of the sample to wildlife harvesting is related to their attitude to nature conservation. The relationship between respondents’ support for the sustainable commercial harvesting of each of the species and their degree of endangerment based on IUCN Red List rankings is established and found to be an inverse one. Support for the commercial sustainable use of each of the species is compared with the willingness of respondents to pay for their conservation. Support for sustainable commercial harvesting of species is found to be inversely related to the willingness of respondents to pay is for a particular species’ conservation. In turn, this willingness to pay is found to rise with the degree of endangerment of species. While the likeability of a species has some influence on whether there is support or not for its commercial harvesting, it does not seem to be the predominant influence— the degree of endangerment of a species appears to be the major influence here. Even so, this does not imply majority support for the harvest of all species that are not threatened; rather, majority support for harvest was observed only for some species known to be abundant. None of the species that appear in the Red List have majority support for harvesting. Implications are outlined of the results for the policy of promoting wildlife conservation by means of sustainable use.