Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Ecology and behavior of first instar larval Lepidoptera

Neonate Lepidoptera are confronted with the daunting task of establishing themselves on a food plant. The factors relevant to this process need to be considered at spatial and temporal scales relevant to the larva and not the investigator. Neonates have to cope with an array of plant surface characters as well as internal characters once the integument is ruptured. These characters, as well as microclimatic conditions, vary within and between plant modules and interact with larval feeding requirements, strongly affecting movement behavior, which may be extensive even for such small organisms. In addition to these factors, there is an array of predators, pathogens, and parasitoids with which first instars must contend. Not surprisingly, mortality in neonates is high but can vary widely. Experimental and manipulative studies, as well as detailed observations of the animal, are vital if the subtle interaction of factors responsible for this high and variable mortality are to be understood. These studies are essential for an understanding of theories linking female oviposition behavior with larval survival, plant defense theory, and population dynamics, as well as modern crop resistance breeding programs.

Immunobiology of liver dendritic cells

Dendritic cells (DC) are rare, bone marrow-derived antigen-presenting cells that play a critical role in the induction and regulation of immune reactivity. In this article, we review the identification and characterization of liver DC, their ontogenic development, in vivo mobilization and population dynamics. In addition, we discuss the functions of DC isolated from liver tissue or celiac lymph, or propagated in vitro from liver-resident haemopoietic stem/progenitor cells. Evidence concerning the role of DC in viral hepatitis. liver tumours, autoimmune liver diseases, granulomatous inflammation and the outcome of liver transplantation is also discussed.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Variable effects of larval size on post-metamorphic performance in the field

Larval quality may be capable of explaining much of the variation in the recruitment and subsequent population dynamics of benthic marine invertebrates. Whilst the effects of larval nutritional condition on adult performance have received the most attention, recent work has shown that larval size may also be an important and ubiquitous source of variation in larval quality. We examined the effects of variation in larval size on the post-metamorphic survival and growth of Watersipora subtorquata in 2 very different habitats - experimental substrata and pier pilings. We found strong effects of larval size on colony performance, although these varied among experiments. For colonies on experimental substrata, larval size positively affected adult survival and, initially, growth. However, after 3 wk in the field, there was no relationship between larval size and colony size, possibly because colonies were completely surrounded by newly settled organisms. Larval size also positively affected post-metamorphic growth of colonies on pier pilings, but, surprisingly, colonies that came from larger larvae had lower survival than colonies from smaller larvae. Overall, variation in larval size will strongly affect the recruitment and subsequent performance of adults in this species, although this may vary among different habitats. This study highlights the importance of examining the effects of larval quality on adult performance in as realistic conditions as possible, because of the strong interaction between larval size effects and the environment.

Diel vertical migration: Modelling light-mediated mechanisms

Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

Effect of body size on fecundity of Childers canegrub, Antitrogus parvulus Britton (Coleoptera : Scarabaeidae)

Actual and potential fecundity for Childers canegrub, Antitrogus parvulus Britton, was influenced by the size of females, with the largest females laying the most eggs. Actual or realised fecundity for A. parvulus averaged 18 eggs per female, about half of potential fecundity. Actual fecundity was significantly related to elytron length in a group of laboratory-reared beetles, but not for a group of field-collected beetles. Size was related to potential fecundity for four out of four groups of females collected from emergence traps in the field and for one of two groups reared in the laboratory from field-collected late-instar larvae. As females lay a single batch of eggs, beetle size may be important in the population dynamics of A. parvulus. Populations of A. parvulus with small beetles are potentially less likely to persist and expand than populations with relatively large females.

An evaluation of two indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) abundance in an arid environment

The suitability of spotlight counts to index red fox abundance was assessed in an arid environment through a comparison with a scat deposition index (active attractant). In most cases there was a high degree of correlation between the two indices, suggesting that the spotlight counts were accurately documenting fluctuations in population size. However, the precision of the spotlight index was often low (c.v. = 0.07-0.46), suggesting that the technique may not allow the statistical detection of small changes in abundance. During periods when there was an influx of new individuals into the population, the seasonal scat index displayed a three-month time lag in documenting abundance while foxes accustomed themselves to the presence of the regular food supply. The level of precision of the scat index was also found to be relatively low (c.v. = 0.21-0.48). Nevertheless, further refinements of this technique may produce a suitable measure of fox abundance.

Time of treatment influences the appearance of drug-resistant parasites in Plasmodium falciparum infections

A deterministic mathematical model which predicts the probability of developing a new drug-resistant parasite population within the human host is reported, The model incorporates the host's specific antibody response to PfEMP1, and also investigates the influence of chemotherapy on the probability of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population within the host. Results indicate that early, treatment, and a high antibody threshold coupled with a long lag time between antibody stimulation and activity, are risk factors which increase the likelihood of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population. High parasite mutation rates and fast PfEMP1 var gene switching are also identified as risk factors. The model output allows the relative importance of the various risk factors as well as the relationships between them to be established, thereby increasing the understanding of the conditions which favour the development of a new drug-resistant parasite population.

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

DNA sequence variation in the ITS-1 rDNA subunit and host relationships in sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) (Diptera : Cecidomyiidae), in Australia

Sequence variation in the internal transcribed spacer (ITS-1) ribosomal DNA subunit was examined for sorghum midge obtained from introduced and native hosts in south-eastern and central Queensland. No variation was observed relative to host plant or geographical distance for midges collected from two introduced hosts, grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor ) and Johnson grass (S. halepense ); however, sequence differences were observed between midges from introduced and native hosts and among midges from a single native host, slender bluegrass (Dichanthium affine ). No evidence was observed of introduced midges on native hosts, or vice versa. These results agree with previously hypothesised host distributions for native and introduced midges in Australia, and expand the sample of introduced hosts to include Johnson grass. They suggest that Stenodiplosis sorghicola , the principal midge infesting grain sorghum, is also the most common species on Johnson grass. This confirms that Johnson grass plays a role in the population dynamics of S. sorghicola and suggests that midges originating from Johnson grass may influence levels of infestation in grain sorghum.

Epidemiology and strain characteristics of Echinococcus granulosus in the Benghazi area of eastern Libya

The incidence of surgically confirmed cystic echinococcosis in eastern Libya was estimated to be at least 4.2 cases/100,000, with significantly more female cases than male. The prevalences of infection with Echinococcus granulosus among 1087 sheep, 881 goats, 428 camels and 614 cattle from the same region, determined postmortem in abattoirs, were 20%, 3.4%, 13.6% and 11%, respectively. Infection in the livestock was age-dependent and, generally, the female animals were more often infected than the male. The measurements of rostellar hooks on protoscoleces collected from sheep and cattle were similar but significantly different from the corresponding measurements of parasites of human or camel origin. However, when a portion of the cytochrome c-oxidase subunit I (coxl) gene from each of 30 protoscolex samples from Libya (12 from cattle, three from humans, five from camels and 10 from sheep) was sequenced, the sequences were all found to be identical to that published for the common sheep strain of E. granulosus.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.