Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Governing society today: Editors' introduction

The notion of governing society has for a long time seemed self-evident. Society was conceived as a totality coincident with a certain space, a territory, and occupied by a population. Governing was undertaken by a unified agency that acted upon the society of which it was also a specialized part--the government, or, more broadly, "the state." The notion of "governing society" thus referred unproblematically to the binary of state and society. The articles in this special issue of Alternatives, however, each in its own and different way, address the question of "governing society today."

Can a N-2-fixing Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus association with sugarcane be achieved?

Several published studies claim that high rates of N-2 fixation occur in sugarcane and sorghum, and have ascribed this result to infection by the bacterium Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus, abetted by arbuscular mycorrhizal infection ( Glomus clarum). These results have not been confirmed within Australia. In this study, G. diazotrophicus was detected in stalks of field-grown sugarcane in Australia ( based on phenotypic tests, and a PCR test using species-specific primers developed to amplify a fragment of the G. diazotrophicus 16S rRNA gene). Isolates were nitrogenase positive ( acetylene reduction assay) in vitro. However, in glasshouse trials involving inoculation of sugarcane setts with G. diazotrophicus, co-inoculation with mycorrhizae, and plant growth under low N status, recovery of bacteria from maturing plants was variable. At 165 days from planting, no appreciable N-2-fixation, as assessed by dry weight increment, N budget, or N-15 ratio, of either an Australian or a Brazilian cultivar of sugarcane, or a sorghum cultivar, was achieved. We conclude that a N-2-fixing sugarcane - G. diazotrophicus association is not easily achievable, being primarily limited by a lack of infection.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Should watchful waiting be used more often for acute otitis media?

RECENT ANXIETY about the treatment of acute otitis media has been precipitated by a resistance to antibiotics by the common pathogens that can cause this infection.1, 2 The medical profession is facing an increasingly impotent option in the form of antibiotics, prompting physicians around the world to consider alternatives. In this issue of the ARCHIVES, Pichichero and Poole3 have undertaken a comprehensive study involving pediatricians and otorhinologists. The objectives were to assess their recognition of the physical findings of acute otitis media and their ability to perform myringotomy. The principal issue is the safety of performing myringotomy in children with acute otitis media. Because this is an office procedure in which a general anesthetic is not administered, the child is strapped to a papoose board and held down. Myringotomy is not without potential serious complications. The superior part of the middle ear cavity contains the ossicles and the chorda tympani branch . . . [Full Text of this Article]

Genotype-by-management interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration of wheat

The magnitude of genotype-by-management (G x M) interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration was examined in a multi-environment trial (MET) involving a diverse set of 272 advanced breeding lines from the Queensland wheat breeding program. The MET was structured as a series of management-regimes imposed at 3 sites for 2 years. The management-regimes were generated at each site-year as separate trials in which planting time, N fertiliser application rate, cropping history, and irrigation were manipulated. irrigation was used to simulate different rainfall regimes. From the combined analysis of variance, the G x M interaction variance components were found to be the largest source of G x E interaction variation for both grain yield (0.117 +/- 0.005 t(2) ha(-2); 49% of total G x E 0.238 +/- 0.028 t(2) ha(-2)) and grain protein concentration (0.445 +/- 0.020%(2); 82% of total G x E 0.546 +/- 0.057%(2)), and in both cases this source of variation was larger than the genotypic variance component (grain yield 0.068 +/- 0.014 t(2) ha(-2) and grain protein 0.203 +/- 0.026%(2)). The genotypic correlation between the traits varied considerably with management-regime, ranging from -0.98 to -0.31, with an estimate of 0.0 for one trial. Pattern analysis identified advanced breeding lines with improved grain yield and grain protein concentration relative to the cultivars Hartog, Sunco and Meteor. It is likely that a large component of the previously documented G x E interactions for grain yield of wheat in the northern grains region are in part a result of G x M interactions. The implications of the strong influence of G x M interactions for the conduct of wheat breeding METs in the northern region are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A decision support process to compare Riparian revegetation options in Scheu Creek catchment in North Queensland

While riparian vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups. Multicriteria analysis provides an appropriate tool to evaluate alternative riparian revegetation options, and to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. This paper discusses an application of multicriteria analysis in an evaluation of riparian revegetation policy options for Scheu Creek, a small sub-catchment in the Johnstone River catchment in north Queensland, Australia. Clear differences are found in the rankings of revegetation options for different stakeholder groups with respect to environmental, social and economic impacts. Implementation of a revegetation option will involve considerable cost for landholders for the benefits of society. Queensland legislation does not provide a means to require farmers to implement riparian revegetation, hence the need for subsidies, tau incentives and moral suasion. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Liver transplantation: current status and future prospects

The enormous progress that has been made in liver transplantation over the past two decades has culminated in survival approaching 90% at 12 months. The success of the procedure combined with the widening spectrum of disease processes deemed amenable to liver transplantation has meant that there are too few donors for those awaiting transplantation. This has extrapolated to many patients having such advanced disease by the time a suitable donor liver is available, that they are almost non-transplantable. The immediate options facing the transplant community are to decrease the number of patients listed or to increase the number of living donor transplants. Alternatives to liver transplantation such as hepatocyte transplantation, gene therapy, xenotransplantation and the bioartificial liver are being sought but, at best, are some way from clinical application. It is anticipated that a number of liver diseases that are indications for liver transplantation at this time will have progression arrested or will be cured by medical therapy in the future.