72 resultados para multitemporal species distribution modelling


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Tolerance of desiccation was examined in three species of moss, Grimmia antarctici Card., Ceratodon purpureus (Hedw.) Brid. and Bryum pseudotriquetrum (Hedw.) Gaertn., Meyer et Scherb. collected from two sites of contrasting water availability in the Windmill Islands, continental Antarctica. Physiological tolerance to desiccation was measured using chlorophyll fluorescence in plugs of moss during natural drying in the laboratory. Differences in relative water content, rate of drying and the response of photosynthesis to desiccation were observed among the three species and between sites. Of the three species studied, G. antarctici showed the lowest capacity to sustain photosynthetic processes during desiccation, B. pseudotriquetrum had an intermediate response and showed the greatest plasticity and C. purpureus showed the greatest capacity to sustain photosynthesis during desiccation. These results fit well with the known distribution of the three species with G. antarctici being limited to relatively wet sites, C. purpureus being common in the driest sites and B. pseudotriquetrum showing a wide distribution between these two extremes. Levels of soluble carbohydrates were also measured in these samples following desiccation and these indicate the presence of stachyose, an oligosaccharide known to be important in desiccation tolerance in seeds, in B. pseudotriquetrum. Both gross morphology and carbohydrate content are likely to contribute to differences in desiccation tolerance of the moss species. These results indicate that if the Casey region continues to dry out, as a result of local geological uplifting or global climate change, we would expect to see not only reductions in the moss community but also changes in community composition. G. antarctici is likely to become more limited in distribution as C. purpureus and B. pseudotriquetrum expand into drying areas.

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Regional and national surveys provide a broadscale description of the koala's present distribution in Australia. A detailed understanding of its distribution is precluded, however, by past and continuing land clearing across large parts of the koala's range. Koala population density increased in some regions during the late 1800s and then declined dramatically in the early 1900s. The decline was associated with habitat loss, hunting, disease, fire, and drought. Declines are continuing in Queensland and New South Wales. In contrast, dense koala populations in habitat isolates in Victoria and South Australia are managed to reduce population size and browse damage. Current understanding of koala distribution and abundance suggests that the species does not meet Australian criteria as endangered or vulnerable fauna. Its conservation status needs to be reviewed, however, in light of the extensive land clearing in New South Wales and Queensland since the last (1980s) broadscale surveys. Consequently, we recommend that broadacre clearing by curtailed in New South Wales and Queensland and that regular, comprehensive, standardized, national koala surveys be undertaken. Given the fragmentation of koala habitat and regional differences in the status of the koala, we recommended that studies on regional variation in the koala be intensified and that koala ecology in fragmented and naturally restricted habitats be developed. More generally, the National Koala Conservation Strategy should be implemented.

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The presumptive tonic muscles fibres of Cottoperca gobio, Champsocephalus esox, Harpagifer bispinis, Eleginops maclovinus, Patagonothen tessellata, P. cornucola and Paranotothenia magellanica stained weakly or were unstained for glycogen, lipid, succinic dehydrogenase (SDHase) and myosin ATPase (mATPase) activity. Slow, intermediate and fast twitch muscle fibres, distinguished on the basis of the pH stability of their mATPases, showed intense, moderate and low staining activity for SDHase, respectively. Slow fibres were the major component of the pectoral fin adductor profundis muscle. The proportion of different muscle fibre types varied from the proximal to distal end of the muscle, but showed relatively little variation between species. The myotomes contained a lateral superficial strip of red muscle composed of presumptive tonic, slow twitch and intermediate fibres, thickening to a major wedge at the horizontal septum. All species also had characteristic secondary dorsal and ventral wedges of red muscle. The relative abundance and localization of muscle fibre types in the red muscle varied between species and with body size in the protandric hermaphrodite E. maclovinus. The frequency distribution of diameters for fast twitch muscle fibres, the major component of deep white muscle, was determined in fish of a range of body sizes. The absence of fibres <20 mu m diameter was used as a criterion for the cessation of muscle fibre recruitment. Fibre recruitment had stopped in P, tessellata of 13.8 cm L-T and E, maclovinus of 32.8 cm L-T, equivalent to 49 and 36.5% of their recorded maximum sizes respectively. As a result in 20-cm P. tessellata, the maximum fibre diameter was 300 mu m and 36% of fibres were in excess of 200 mu m The unusually large maximum fibre diameter, the general arrangement of the red muscle layer and the extreme pH lability of the mATPase of fast twitch fibres are all common characters of the sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Notothenioids, including Cottoperca gobio, the suggested sister group to the Notothenidae. (C) 2000 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

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Numerical methods ave used to solve double diffusion driven reactive flow transport problems in deformable fluid-saturated porous media. in particular, thp temperature dependent reaction rate in the non-equilibrium chemical reactions is considered. A general numerical solution method, which is a combination of the finite difference method in FLAG and the finite element method in FIDAP, to solve the fully coupled problem involving material deformation, pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and species transport/chemical reactions in deformable fluid-saturated porous media has been developed The coupled problem is divided into two subproblems which are solved interactively until the convergence requirement is met. Owing to the approximate nature of the numerical method, if is essential to justify the numerical solutions through some kind of theoretical analysis. This has been highlighted in this paper The related numerical results, which are justified by the theoretical analysis, have demonstrated that the proposed solution method is useful for and applicable to a wide range of fully coupled problems in the field of science and engineering.

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1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

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We use the finite element method to model the heat transfer phenomenon through permeable cracks in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow. Since the finite element method is an approximate numerical method, the method must be validated before it is used to soh,e any new, kind of problem. However, the analytical solution, which can be used to validate the finite element method and other numerical methods, is rather limited in the literature, especially, for the problem considered here. Keeping this in mind, we have derived analytical solutions for the temperature distribution along the vertical axis of a crack in a fluid-saturated porous layer. After the finite element method is validated by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical solution for the same benchmark problem, it is used to investigate the pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in layered hydrothermal systems with vertical permeable cracks. The related analytical and numerical results have demonstrated that vertical cracks are effective and efficient members to transfer heat energy from the bottom section to the top section in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow.

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An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

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Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

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Six Burkholderia solanacearum (formerly Pseudomonas solanacearum) genomic DNA fragments were isolated, using RAPD techniques and cloning, from the three genetically diverse strains: ACH092 (Biovar 4), ACH0158 (Biovar 2) and ACH0171 (Biovar 3) (1). One of these cloned fragments was selected because it was present constantly in all bacterial strains analysed. The remaining five clones were selected because Southern hybridisation revealed that each showed partial or complete specificity towards the strain of origin. A seventh genomic fragment showing a strain-specific distribution in Southern hybridisations was obtained by differential restriction, hybridisation and cloning of genomic DNA. Each of these clones was sequenced and primers to amplify the insert were designed. When DNA from the strain of origin was used as template, PCR amplification for each of these fragments yielded a single band on gel analysis. One pair of primers amplified the species-constant fragment of 281 bp from DNA of all B. solanacearum strains investigated, from DNA of the closely related bacterium which causes ''blood disease'' of banana (BDB) and in P. syzigii. The sensitivity of detection of B. solanacearum using these ubiquitous primers was between 1.3 and 20 bacterial cells. The feasibility and reliability of a PCR approach to detection and identification of B. solanacearum was tested in diverse strains of the bacterium in several countries and laboratories.

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We surveyed the larval habitats of member,, of the Anopheles punctulatus group of mosquitoes on Niolam (Lihir) Island. Papua New Guinea. Identification of this group was undertaken by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of the amplified internal transcribed spacer unit 2 of rDNA. because morphologic separation of member species is unreliable. The most widespread malaria vector species and their most common larval habitats identified to aid source-reduction programs for malaria control. The most ubiquitous species was An. punctulatus, followed by An. farauti no. 2. then An. farauti s.s. Anopheles punctulatus has increased relative to An.farauti s.l. since the start of development projects on Lihir Island. The most common larval habitats were shallow temporary pools with clay substrate and with plants or floatage. These habitats. mostly encountered alongside poorly drained roads, may be increased by development projects.

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A combination of modelling and analysis techniques was used to design a six component force balance. The balance was designed specifically for the measurement of impulsive aerodynamic forces and moments characteristic of hypervelocity shock tunnel testing using the stress wave force measurement technique. Aerodynamic modelling was used to estimate the magnitude and distribution of forces and finite element modelling to determine the mechanical response of proposed balance designs. Simulation of balance performance was based on aerodynamic loads and mechanical responses using convolution techniques. Deconvolution was then used to assess balance performance and to guide further design modifications leading to the final balance design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background, aim: The present study describes (i) the natural distribution of the three putative periodontopathogens Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia and Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans in an Australian population and (ii) the relationship between these organisms, pocket depths and supragingival plaque scores. Methods: Subgingival plaque was collected from the shallowest and deepest probing site in each sextant of the dentition. In total, 6030 subgingival plaque samples were collected from 504 subjects. An ELISA utilising pathogen-specific monoclonal antibodies was used to quantitate bacterial numbers. Results:: A. actinomycetemcomitans was the most frequently detected organism (22.8% of subjects) followed by P. gingivalis and P. intermedia (14.7% and 9.5% of subjects respectively). The majority of infected subjects (83%) were colonised by a single species of organism. A. actinomyceteincomitans presence was overrepresented in the youngest age group but under-represented in the older age groups. Conversely, P. gingivalis and P. intermedia presence was under-represented in the youngest age group but over-represented in the older age groups. Differing trends in the distribution of these bacteria were observed between subjects depending upon the site of the infection or whether a single or mixed infection was present; however, these differences did not reach significance. Bacterial presence was strongly associated with pocket depth for both A. actinomyceteincomitans and P. gingivalis. For A. actinomycetemcomitans, the odds of a site containing this bacterium decrease with deeper pockets. In contrast, for P. gingivalis the odds of a site being positive are almost six times greater for pockets >3 ram than for pockets less than or equal to3 nun. These odds increase further to 15.3 for pockets deeper than 5 mm. The odds of a site being P. intermedia positive were marginally greater (1.16) for pockets deeper than 3 mm. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study in a volunteer Australian population, demonstrated recognised periodontal pathogens occur as part of the flora of the subgingival plaque. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed to examine the positive relationship between pocket depth and pathogen presence with periodontal disease initiation and/or progression.